A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty

Existing methods for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in productive activities and sectors are usually limited to point estimates that do not consider the inherent variability and uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic variables. This is a major drawback given that only a limited and potentially misleading estimation of risk can be expected when ignoring such determinant factors. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced that is capable of integrating the agent's beliefs and expert judgment into the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in a quantitative manner by means of an objective procedure. The goal is to produce tailor-made information to assist decision-making under uncertainty in a way that is consistent with the current state of knowledge and the available subjective "expert" information. Time-charts of the evolution of different risk measures, that can be relevant for assisting decision-making and planning, can be constructed using this new methodology. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of coffee production in Mexico. Time-dependent probabilistic scenarios for coffee production and income, conditional on the agent's beliefs and expert judgment, are developed for the average producer under uncertain future conditions. It is shown that variability in production and income, generated by introducing climate variability and uncertainty are important factors affecting decision-making and the assessment of economic viability that are frequently ignored. The concept of Value at Risk, commonly applied in financial risk management, is introduced as a means for estimating the maximum expected loss for a previously chosen confidence level. Results are tailor-made for agents that have incomplete information and different beliefs. In this case study, the costs of climate change for coffee production in Veracruz are estimated to have a present value representing from 3 to 14 times the current annual value of coffee production in the state. © 2011 The Author(s)

Agronomic Management of Indigenous Mycorrhizas

Many of the advantages conferred to plants by arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) are associated to the ability of AM plants to explore a greater volume of soil through the extraradical mycelium. Sieverding (1991) estimates that for each centimetre of colonized root there is an increase of 15 cm3 on the volume of soil explored, this value can increase to 200 cm3 depending on the circumstances. Due to the enhancement of the volume of soil explored and the ability of the extraradical mycelium to absorb and translocate nutrients to the plant, one of the most obvious and important advantages resulting from mycorrhization is the uptake of nutrients. Among of which the ones that have immobilized forms in soil, such as P, assume particular significance. Besides this, many other benefits are recognized for AM plants (Gupta et al, 2000): water stress alleviation (Augé, 2004; Cho et al, 2006), protection from root pathogens (Graham, 2001), tolerance to toxic heavy metals and phytoremediation (Audet and Charest, 2006; Göhre and Paszkowski, 2006), tolerance to adverse conditions such as very high or low temperature, high salinity (Sannazzaro et al, 2006), high or low pH (Yano and Takaki, 2005) or better performance during transplantation shock (Subhan et al, 1998). The extraradical hyphae also stabilize soil aggregates by both enmeshing soil particles (Miller e Jastrow, 1992) and producing a glycoprotein, golmalin, which may act as a glue-like substance to adhere soil particles together (Wright and Upadhyaya, 1998). Despite the ubiquous distribution of mycorrhizal fungi (Smith and Read, 2000) and only a relative specificity between host plants and fungal isolates (McGonigle and Fitter, 1990), the obligate nature of the symbiosis implies the establishment of a plant propagation system, either under greenhouse conditions or in vitro laboratory propagation. These techniques result in high inoculum production costs, which still remains a serious problem since they are not competitive with production costs of phosphorus fertilizer. Even if farmers understand the significance of sustainable agricultural systems, the reduction of phosphorus inputs by using AM fungal inocula alone cannot be justified except, perhaps, in the case of high value crops (Saioto and Marumoto, 2002). Nurseries, high income horticulture farmers and no-agricultural application such as rehabilitation of degraded or devegetated landscapes are examples of areas where the use of commercial inoculum is current. Another serious problem is quality of commercial available products concerning guarantee of phatogene free content, storage conditions, most effective application methods and what types to use. Besides the information provided by suppliers about its inoculum can be deceiving, as from the usually referred total counts, only a fraction may be effective for a particular plant or in specific soil conditions. Gianinazzi and Vosátka (2004) assume that progress should be made towards registration procedures that stimulate the development of the mycorrhizal industry. Some on-farm inoculum production and application methods have been studied, allowing farmers to produce locally adapted isolates and generate a taxonomically diverse inoculum (Mohandas et al, 2004; Douds et al, 2005). However the inocula produced this way are not readily processed for mechanical application to the fields, being an obstacle to the utilization in large scale agriculture, especially row crops, moreover it would represent an additional mechanical operation with the corresponding economic and soil compaction costs. It is well recognized that inoculation of AM fungi has a potential significance in not only sustainable crop production, but also environmental conservation. However, the status quo of inoculation is far from practical technology that can be widely used in the field. Together a further basic understanding of the biology and diversity of AM fungi is needed (Abbott at al, 1995; Saito and Marumoto, 2002). Advances in ecology during the past decade have led to a much more detailed understanding of the potential negative consequences of species introductions and the potential for negative ecological consequences of invasions by mycorrhizal fungi is poorly understood. Schwartz et al, (2006) recommend that a careful assessment documenting the need for inoculation, and the likelihood of success, should be conducted prior to inoculation because inoculations are not universally beneficial. Agricultural practices such as crop rotation, tillage, weed control and fertilizer apllication all produce changes in the chemical, physical and biological soil variables and affect the ecological niches available for occupancy by the soil biota, influencing in different ways the symbiosis performance and consequently the inoculum development, shaping changes and upset balance of native populations. The molecular biology tools developed in the latest years have been very important for our perception of these changes, ensuing awareness of management choice implications in AM development. In this context, for extensive farming systems and regarding environmental and economic costs, the identification of agronomic management practices that allow controlled manipulation of the fungal community and capitalization of AM mutualistic effect making use of local inoculum, seem to be a wise option for mycorrhiza promotion and development of sustainable crop production

Drug-induced mild therapeutic hypothermia obtained by administration of a transient receptor potential vanilloid type 1 agonist

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The use of mechanical/physical devices for applying mild therapeutic hypothermia is the only proven neuroprotective treatment for survivors of out of hospital cardiac arrest. However, this type of therapy is cumbersome and associated with several side-effects. We investigated the feasibility of using a transient receptor potential vanilloid type 1 (TRPV1) agonist for obtaining drug-induced sustainable mild hypothermia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>First, we screened a heterogeneous group of TRPV1 agonists and secondly we tested the hypothermic properties of a selected candidate by dose-response studies. Finally we tested the hypothermic properties in a large animal. The screening was in conscious rats, the dose-response experiments in conscious rats and in cynomologus monkeys, and the finally we tested the hypothermic properties in conscious young cattle (calves with a body weight as an adult human). The investigated TRPV1 agonists were administered by continuous intravenous infusion.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Screening: Dihydrocapsaicin (DHC), a component of chili pepper, displayed a desirable hypothermic profile with regards to the duration, depth and control in conscious rats. Dose-response experiments: In both rats and cynomologus monkeys DHC caused a dose-dependent and immediate decrease in body temperature. Thus in rats, infusion of DHC at doses of 0.125, 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 mg/kg/h caused a maximal ΔT (°C) as compared to vehicle control of -0.9, -1.5, -2.0, and -4.2 within approximately 1 hour until the 6 hour infusion was stopped. Finally, in calves the intravenous infusion of DHC was able to maintain mild hypothermia with ΔT > -3°C for more than 12 hours.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data support the hypothesis that infusion of dihydrocapsaicin is a candidate for testing as a primary or adjunct method of inducing and maintaining therapeutic hypothermia.</p

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

The Immunological Synapse: a Dynamic Platform for Local Signaling

The immunological synapse (IS) as a concept has evolved from a static view of the junction between T cells and their antigen-presenting cell partners. The entire process of IS formation and extinction is now known to entail a dynamic reorganization of membrane domains and proteins within and adjacent to those domains. Discussion The entire process is also intricately tied to the motility machinery—both as that machinery directs “scanning” prior to T-cell receptor engagement and as it is appropriated during the ongoing developments at the IS. While the synapse often remains dynamic in order to encourage surveillance of new antigen-presenting surfaces, cytoskeletal forces also regulate the development of signals, likely including the assembly of ion channels. In both neuronal and immunological synapses, localized Ca 2+ signals and accumulation or depletion of ions in microdomains accompany the concentration of signaling molecules in the synapse. Such spatiotemporal signaling in the synapse greatly accelerates kinetics and provides essential checkpoints to validate effective cell–cell communication

Division of labor in honeybees: form, function, and proximate mechanisms

Honeybees exhibit two patterns of organization of work. In the spring and summer, division of labor is used to maximize growth rate and resource accumulation, while during the winter, worker survivorship through the poor season is paramount, and bees become generalists. This work proposes new organismal and proximate level conceptual models for these phenomena. The first half of the paper presents a push–pull model for temporal polyethism. Members of the nursing caste are proposed to be pushed from their caste by the development of workers behind them in the temporal caste sequence, while middle-aged bees are pulled from their caste via interactions with the caste ahead of them. The model is, hence, an amalgamation of previous models, in particular, the social inhibition and foraging for work models. The second half of the paper presents a model for the proximate basis of temporal polyethism. Temporal castes exhibit specialized physiology and switch caste when it is adaptive at the colony level. The model proposes that caste-specific physiology is dependent on mutually reinforcing positive feedback mechanisms that lock a bee into a particular behavioral phase. Releasing mechanisms that relate colony level information are then hypothesized to disrupt particular components of the priming mechanisms to trigger endocrinological cascades that lead to the next temporal caste. Priming and releasing mechanisms for the nursing caste are mapped out that are consistent with current experimental results. Less information-rich, but plausible, mechanisms for the middle-aged and foraging castes are also presented

Acid-evoked Ca2+ signalling in rat sensory neurones: effects of anoxia and aglycaemia

Ischaemia excites sensory neurones (generating pain) and promotes calcitonin gene-related peptide release from nerve endings. Acidosis is thought to play a key role in mediating excitation via the activation of proton-sensitive cation channels. In this study, we investigated the effects of acidosis upon Ca2+ signalling in sensory neurones from rat dorsal root ganglia. Both hypercapnic (pHo 6.8) and metabolic–hypercapnic (pHo 6.2) acidosis caused a biphasic increase in cytosolic calcium concentration ([Ca2+]i). This comprised a brief Ca2+ transient (half-time approximately 30 s) caused by Ca2+ influx followed by a sustained rise in [Ca2+]i due to Ca2+ release from caffeine and cyclopiazonic acid-sensitive internal stores. Acid-evoked Ca2+ influx was unaffected by voltage-gated Ca2+-channel inhibition with nickel and acid sensing ion channel (ASIC) inhibition with amiloride but was blocked by inhibition of transient receptor potential vanilloid receptors (TRPV1) with (E)-3-(4-t-butylphenyl)-N-(2,3-dihydrobenzo[b][1,4] dioxin-6-yl)acrylamide (AMG 9810; 1 μM) and N-(4-tertiarybutylphenyl)-4-(3-cholorphyridin-2-yl) tetrahydropryazine-1(2H)-carbox-amide (BCTC; 1 μM). Combining acidosis with anoxia and aglycaemia increased the amplitude of both phases of Ca2+ elevation and prolonged the Ca2+ transient. The Ca2+ transient evoked by combined acidosis, aglycaemia and anoxia was also substantially blocked by AMG 9810 and BCTC and, to a lesser extent, by amiloride. In summary, the principle mechanisms mediating increase in [Ca2+]i in response to acidosis are a brief Ca2+ influx through TRPV1 followed by sustained Ca2+ release from internal stores. These effects are potentiated by anoxia and aglycaemia, conditions also prevalent in ischaemia. The effects of anoxia and aglycaemia are suggested to be largely due to the inhibition of Ca2+-clearance mechanisms and possible increase in the role of ASICs