Characterising droughts in Central America with uncertain hydro-meteorological data

Central America is frequently affected by droughts that cause significant socio-economic and environmental problems. Drought characterisation, monitoring and forecasting are potentially useful to support water resource management. Drought indices are designed for these purposes, but their ability to characterise droughts depends on the characteristics of the regional climate and the quality of the available data. Local comprehensive and high-quality observational networks of meteorological and hydrological data are not available, which limits the choice of drought indices and makes it important to assess available datasets. This study evaluated which combinations of drought index and meteorological dataset were most suitable for characterising droughts in the region. We evaluated the standardised precipitation index (SPI), a modified version of the deciles index (DI), the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the effective drought index (EDI). These were calculated using precipitation data from the Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the CRN073 dataset, the Climate Research Unit (CRU), ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and a regional station dataset, and temperature from the CRU and ERA-Interim datasets. The gridded meteorological precipitation datasets were compared to assess how well they captured key features of the regional climate. The performance of all the drought indices calculated with all the meteorological datasets was then evaluated against a drought index calculated using river discharge data. Results showed that the selection of database was more important than the selection of drought index and that the best combinations were the EDI and DI calculated with CHIRPS and CRN073. Results also highlighted the importance of including indices like SPEI for drought assessment in Central America.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A9-532]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B3-600]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-065]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B3-413]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-227]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-228]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B5-295]/UCR/Costa RicaUppsala University/[54100006]//SueciaMarie Curie Intra-European Fellowship/[No.329762]//EuropaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de Físic

The Association between Household Socioeconomic Position and Prevalent Tuberculosis in Zambia: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND: Although historically tuberculosis (TB) has been associated with poverty, few analytical studies from developing countries have tried to: 1. assess the relative impact of poverty on TB after the emergence of HIV; 2. explore the causal mechanism underlying this association; and 3. estimate how many cases of TB could be prevented by improving household socioeconomic position (SEP). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We undertook a case-control study nested within a population-based TB and HIV prevalence survey conducted in 2005-2006 in two Zambian communities. Cases were defined as persons (15+ years of age) culture positive for M. tuberculosis. Controls were randomly drawn from the TB-free participants enrolled in the prevalence survey. We developed a composite index of household SEP combining variables accounting for four different domains of household SEP. The analysis of the mediation pathway between household SEP and TB was driven by a pre-defined conceptual framework. Adjusted Population Attributable Fractions (aPAF) were estimated. Prevalent TB was significantly associated with lower household SEP [aOR = 6.2, 95%CI: 2.0-19.2 and aOR = 3.4, 95%CI: 1.8-7.6 respectively for low and medium household SEP compared to high]. Other risk factors for prevalent TB included having a diet poor in proteins [aOR = 3.1, 95%CI: 1.1-8.7], being HIV positive [aOR = 3.1, 95%CI: 1.7-5.8], not BCG vaccinated [aOR = 7.7, 95%CI: 2.8-20.8], and having a history of migration [aOR = 5.2, 95%CI: 2.7-10.2]. These associations were not confounded by household SEP. The association between household SEP and TB appeared to be mediated by inadequate consumption of protein food. Approximately the same proportion of cases could be attributed to this variable and HIV infection (aPAF = 42% and 36%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: While the fight against HIV remains central for TB control, interventions addressing low household SEP and, especially food availability, may contribute to strengthen our control efforts

Belongingness in early secondary school: Key factors that primary and secondary schools need to consider

© 2015 Vaz et al. It is unknown if, and how, students redefine their sense of school belongingness after negotiating the transition to secondary school. The current study used longitudinal data from 266 students with, and without, disabilities who negotiated the transition from 52 primary schools to 152 secondary schools. The study presents the 13 most significant personal student and contextual factors associated with belongingness in the first year of secondary school. Student perception of school belongingness was found to be stable across the transition. No variability in school belongingness due to gender, disability or household-socio-economic status (SES) was noted. Primary school belongingness accounted for 22% of the variability in secondary school belongingness. Several personal student factors (competence, coping skills) and school factors (low-level classroom task-goal orientation), which influenced belongingness in primary school, continued to influence belongingness in secondary school. In secondary school, effort-goal orientation of the student and perception of their school's tolerance to disability were each associated with perception of school belongingness. Family factors did not influence belongingness in secondary school. Findings of the current study highlight the need for primary schools to foster belongingness among their students at an early age, and transfer students' belongingness profiles as part of the handover documentation. Most of the factors that influenced school belongingness before and after the transition to secondary are amenable to change

Phyto-oestrogens and breast cancer chemoprevention

Phytoestrogens are polyphenol compounds of plant origin that exhibit a structural similarity to the mammalian steroid hormone 17β-oestradiol. In Asian nations the staple consumption of phyto-oestrogen-rich foodstuffs correlates with a reduced incidence of breast cancer. Human dietary intervention trials have noted a direct relationship between phyto-oestrogen ingestion and a favourable hormonal profile associated with decreased breast cancer risk. However, these studies failed to ascertain the precise effect of dietary phyto-oestrogens on the proliferation of mammary tissue. Epidemiological and rodent studies crucially suggest that breast cancer chemoprevention by dietary phyto-oestrogen compounds is dependent on ingestion before puberty, when the mammary gland is relatively immature. Phyto-oestrogen supplements are commercially marketed for use by postmenopausal women as natural and safe alternatives to hormone replacement therapy. Of current concern is the effect of phyto-oestrogen compounds on the growth of pre-existing breast tumours. Data are contradictory, with cell culture studies reporting both the oestrogenic stimulation of oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer cell lines and the antagonism of tamoxifen activity at physiological phyto-oestrogen concentrations. Conversely, phyto-oestrogen ingestion by rodents is associated with the development of less aggressive breast tumours with reduced metastatic potential. Despite the present ambiguity, current data do suggest a potential benefit from use of phyto-oestrogens in breast cancer chemoprevention and therapy. These aspects are discussed

Dark Matter in the Milky Way's Dwarf Spheroidal Satellites

The Milky Way's dwarf spheroidal satellites include the nearest, smallest and least luminous galaxies known. They also exhibit the largest discrepancies between dynamical and luminous masses. This article reviews the development of empirical constraints on the structure and kinematics of dSph stellar populations and discusses how this phenomenology translates into constraints on the amount and distribution of dark matter within dSphs. Some implications for cosmology and the particle nature of dark matter are discussed, and some topics/questions for future study are identified.Comment: A version with full-resolution figures is available at http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~mwalker/mwdsph_review.pdf; 70 pages, 22 figures; invited review article to be published in Vol. 5 of the book "Planets, Stars, and Stellar Systems", published by Springe

Dentifrices, mouthwashes, and remineralization/caries arrestment strategies

While our knowledge of the dental caries process and its prevention has greatly advanced over the past fifty years, it is fair to state that the management of this disease at the level of the individual patient remains largely empirical. Recommendations for fluoride use by patients at different levels of caries risk are mainly based on the adage that more is better. There is a general understanding that the fluoride compound, concentration, frequency of use, duration of exposure, and method of delivery can influence fluoride efficacy. Two important factors are (1) the initial interaction of relatively high concentrations of fluoride with the tooth surface and plaque during application and (2) the retention of fluoride in oral fluids after application

Inactivation of a Single Copy of Crebbp Selectively Alters Pre-mRNA Processing in Mouse Hematopoietic Stem Cells

Global expression analysis of fetal liver hematopoietic stem cells (FL HSCs) revealed the presence of unspliced pre-mRNA for a number of genes in normal FL HSCs. In a subset of these genes, Crebbp+/− FL HSCs had less unprocessed pre-mRNA without a corresponding reduction in total mRNA levels. Among the genes thus identified were the key regulators of HSC function Itga4, Msi2 and Tcf4. A similar but much weaker effect was apparent in Ep300+/− FL HSCs, indicating that, in this context as in others, the two paralogs are not interchangeable. As a group, the down-regulated intronic probe sets could discriminate adult HSCs from more mature cell types, suggesting that the underlying mechanism is regulated with differentiation stage and is active in both fetal and adult hematopoiesis. Consistent with increased myelopoiesis in Crebbp hemizygous mice, targeted reduction of CREBBP abundance by shRNA in the multipotent EML cell line triggered spontaneous myeloid differentiation in the absence of the normally required inductive signals. In addition, differences in protein levels between phenotypically distinct EML subpopulations were better predicted by taking into account not only the total mRNA signal but also the amount of unspliced message present. CREBBP thus appears to selectively influence the timing and degree of pre-mRNA processing of genes essential for HSC regulation and thereby has the potential to alter subsequent cell fate decisions in HSCs

The personal and contextual contributors to school belongingness among primary school students

School belongingness has gained currency among educators and school health professionals as an important determinant of adolescent health. The current cross-sectional study presents the 15 most significant personal and contextual factors that collectively explain 66.4% (two-thirds) of the variability in 12-year old students' perceptions of belongingness in primary school. The study is part of a larger longitudinal study investigating the factors associated with student adjustment in the transition from primary to secondary school. The study found that girls and students with disabilities had higher school belongingness scores than boys, and their typically developing counterparts respectively; and explained 2.5% of the variability in school belongingness. The majority (47.1% out of 66.4%) of the variability in school belongingness was explained by student personal factors, such as social acceptance, physical appearance competence, coping skills, and social affiliation motivation; followed by parental expectations (3% out of 66.4%), and school-based factors (13.9% out of 66.4%) such as, classroom involvement, task-goal structure, autonomy provision, cultural pluralism, and absence of bullying. Each of the identified contributors of primary school belongingness can be shaped through interventions, system changes, or policy reforms

Variability in Working Memory Performance Explained by Epistasis vs Polygenic Scores in the ZNF804A Pathway

Importance: We investigated the variation in neuropsychological function explained by risk alleles at the psychosis susceptibility gene ZNF804A and its interacting partners using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), polygenic scores, and epistatic analyses. Of particular importance was the relative contribution of the polygenic score vs epistasis in variation explained. Objectives To (1) assess the association between SNPs in ZNF804A and the ZNF804A polygenic score with measures of cognition in cases with psychosis and (2) assess whether epistasis within the ZNF804A pathway could explain additional variation above and beyond that explained by the polygenic score. Design, Setting, and Participants: Patients with psychosis (n = 424) were assessed in areas of cognitive ability impaired in schizophrenia including IQ, memory, attention, and social cognition. We used the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium 1 schizophrenia genome-wide association study to calculate a polygenic score based on identified risk variants within this genetic pathway. Cognitive measures significantly associated with the polygenic score were tested for an epistatic component using a training set (n = 170), which was used to develop linear regression models containing the polygenic score and 2-SNP interactions. The best-fitting models were tested for replication in 2 independent test sets of cases: (1) 170 individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and (2) 84 patients with broad psychosis (including bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, and other psychosis). Main Outcomes and Measures: Participants completed a neuropsychological assessment battery designed to target the cognitive deficits of schizophrenia including general cognitive function, episodic memory, working memory, attentional control, and social cognition. Results: Higher polygenic scores were associated with poorer performance among patients on IQ, memory, and social cognition, explaining 1% to 3% of variation on these scores (range, P = .01 to .03). Using a narrow psychosis training set and independent test sets of narrow phenotype psychosis (schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder), broad psychosis, and control participants (n = 89), the addition of 2 interaction terms containing 2 SNPs each increased the R2 for spatial working memory strategy in the independent psychosis test sets from 1.2% using the polygenic score only to 4.8% (P = .11 and .001, respectively) but did not explain additional variation in control participants. Conclusions and Relevance: These data support a role for the ZNF804A pathway in IQ, memory, and social cognition in cases. Furthermore, we showed that epistasis increases the variation explained above the contribution of the polygenic score

Sources, Composition, and Export of Particulate Organic Matter Across British Estuaries

Estuaries receive and process a large amount of particulate organic carbon (POC) prior to its export into coastal waters. Studying the origin of this POC is key to understanding the fate of POC and the role of estuaries in the global carbon cycle. Here, we evaluated the concentrations of POC, as well as particulate organic nitrogen (PON), and used stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to assess their sources across 13 contrasting British estuaries during five different sampling campaigns over 1 year. We found a high variability in POC and PON concentrations across the salinity gradient, reflecting inputs, and losses of organic material within the estuaries. Catchment land cover appeared to influence the contribution of POC to the total organic carbon flux from the estuary to coastal waters, with POC contributions >36% in estuaries draining catchments with a high percentage of urban/suburban land, and <11% in estuaries draining catchments with a high peatland cover. There was no seasonal pattern in the isotopic composition of POC and PON, suggesting similar sources for each estuary over time. Carbon isotopic ratios were depleted (−26.7 ± 0.42‰, average ± sd) at the lowest salinity waters, indicating mainly terrigenous POC (TPOC). Applying a two-source mixing model, we observed high variability in the contribution of TPOC at the highest salinity waters between estuaries, with a median value of 57%. Our results indicate a large transport of terrigenous organic carbon into coastal waters, where it may be buried, remineralized, or transported offshore