Evaluation of multi-hazard map produced using MaxEnt machine learning technique

Natural hazards are diverse and uneven in time and space, therefore, understanding its complexity is key to save human lives and conserve natural ecosystems. Reducing the outputs obtained after each modelling analysis is key to present the results for stakeholders, land managers and policymakers. So, the main goal of this survey was to present a method to synthesize three natural hazards in one multi-hazard map and its evaluation for hazard management and land use planning. To test this methodology, we took as study area the Gorganrood Watershed, located in the Golestan Province (Iran). First, an inventory map of three different types of hazards including flood, landslides, and gullies was prepared using field surveys and different official reports. To generate the susceptibility maps, a total of 17 geo-environmental factors were selected as predictors using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) machine learning technique. The accuracy of the predictive models was evaluated by drawing receiver operating characteristic-ROC curves and calculating the area under the ROC curve-AUCROC. The MaxEnt model not only implemented superbly in the degree of fitting, but also obtained significant results in predictive performance. Variables importance of the three studied types of hazards showed that river density, distance from streams, and elevation were the most important factors for flood, respectively. Lithological units, elevation, and annual mean rainfall were relevant for detecting landslides. On the other hand, annual mean rainfall, elevation, and lithological units were used for gully erosion mapping in this study area. Finally, by combining the flood, landslides, and gully erosion susceptibility maps, an integrated multi-hazard map was created. The results demonstrated that 60% of the area is subjected to hazards, reaching a proportion of landslides up to 21.2% in the whole territory. We conclude that using this type of multi-hazard map may be a useful tool for local administrators to identify areas susceptible to hazards at large scales as we demonstrated in this research

Soil degradation and socioeconomic systems’ complexity: Uncovering the latent nexus

Understanding Soil Degradation Processes (SDPs) is a fundamental issue for humankind. Soil degradation involves complex processes that are influenced by a multifaceted ensemble of socioeconomic and ecological factors at vastly different spatial scales. Desertification risk (the ultimate outcome of soil degradation, seen as an irreversible process of natural resource destruction) and socioeconomic trends have been recently analyzed assuming “resilience thinking” as an appropriate interpretative paradigm. In a purely socioeconomic dimension, resilience is defined as the ability of a local system to react to external signals and to promote future development. This ability is intrinsically bonded with the socio-ecological dynamics characteristic of environmentally homogeneous districts. However, an evaluation of the relationship between SDPs and socioeconomic resilience in local systems is missing in mainstream literature. Our commentary formulates an exploratory framework for the assessment of soil degradation, intended as a dynamic process of natural resource depletion, and the level of socioeconomic resilience in local systems. Such a framework is intended to provide a suitable background to sustainability science and regional policies at the base of truly resilient local systems

O106 / #796 FEASIBILITY OF TRANSCUTANEOUS SPINAL CORD STIMULATION COMBINED WITH ROBOTIC-ASSISTED GAIT TRAINING (LOKOMAT) FOR GAIT REHABILITATION FOLLOWING INCOMPLETE SPINAL CORD INJURY. A CASE SERIES STUDY

Transcutaneous electrical spinal cord stimulation (tSCS) is a non-invasive technique for neuromodulation with therapeutic potential for motor rehabilitation following spinal cord injury (SCI). The aim of the present study was to analyze the feasibility of a program of 20 sessions of 30-Hz tSCS combined with robotic-assisted gait training in incomplete SCI. The results of the present work partially belong to a randomized clinical trial that is in progress

Tillage versus no-tillage. soil properties and hydrology in an organic persimmon farm in eastern Iberian Peninsula

There is an urgent need to implement environmentally friendly agriculture management practices to achieve the Sustainable Goals for Development (SDGs) of the United Nations by 2030. Mediterranean agriculture is characterized by intense and millennia-old tillage management and as a consequence degraded soil. No-Tillage has been widely examined as a solution for soil degradation but No-Tillage relies more on the application of herbicides that reduce plant cover, which in turn enhances soil erosion. However, No-Tillage with weed cover should be researched to promote organic farming and sustainable agriculture. Therefore, we compare Tillage against No-Tillage using weed cover as an alternative strategy to reduce soil losses in persimmon plantations, both of them under organic farming management. To achieve these goals, two plots were established at "La Canyadeta" experimental station on 25-years old Persimmon plantations, which are managed with Tillage and No-Tillage for 3 years. A survey of the soil cover, soil properties, runoff generation and initial soil losses using rainfall simulation experiments at 55 mm h-1 in 0.25 m2 plot was carried out. Soils under Tillage are bare (96.7%) in comparison to the No-Tillage (16.17% bare soil), with similar organic matter (1.71 vs. 1.88%) and with lower bulk densities (1.23 vs. 1.37 g cm3). Tillage induces faster ponding (60 vs. 92 s), runoff (90 vs. 320 s) and runoff outlet (200 vs. 70 s). The runoff discharge was 5.57 times higher in the Tillage plots, 8.64 for sediment concentration and 48.4 for soil losses. We conclude that No-tillage shifted the fate of the tilled field after 3 years with the use of weeds as a soil cover conservation strategy. This immediate effect of No-Tillage under organic farming conditions is very promising to achieve the SDGs

Perceptions of change in the environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: implications for environmental policy

COVID-19 lockdown measures have impacted the environment with both positive and negative effects. However, how human populations have perceived such changes in the natural environment and how they may have changed their daily habits have not been yet thoroughly evaluated. The objectives of this work were to investigate (1) the social perception of the environmental changes produced by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown and the derived change in habits in relation to i) waste management, energy saving, and sustainable consumption, ii) mobility, iii) social inequalities, iv) generation of noise, v) utilization of natural spaces, and, vi) human population perception towards the future, and (2) the associations of these potential new habits with various socio-demographic variables. First, a SWOT analysis identified strengths (S), weaknesses (W), opportunities (O), and threats (T) generated by the pandemic lockdown measures. Second, a survey based on the aspects of the SWOT was administered among 2370 adults from 37 countries during the period from February to September 2021. We found that the short-term positive impacts on the natural environment were generally well recognized. In contrast, longer-term negative effects arise, but they were often not reported by the survey participants, such as greater production of plastic waste derived from health safety measures, and the increase in e-commerce use, which can displace small storefront businesses. We were able to capture a mismatch between perceptions and the reported data related to visits to natural areas, and generation of waste. We found that age and country of residence were major contributors in shaping the survey participants ´answers, which highlights the importance of government management strategies to address current and future environmental problems. Enhanced positive perceptions of the environment and ecosystems, combined with the understanding that livelihood sustainability, needs to be prioritized and would reinforce environmental protection policies to create greener cities. Moreover, new sustainable jobs in combination with more sustainable human habits represent an opportunity to reinforce environmental policy

Access to primary care for socio-economically disadvantaged older people in rural areas: a qualitative study

Objective: We aim to explore the barriers to accessing primary care for socio-economically disadvantaged older people in rural areas. Methods: Using a community recruitment strategy, fifteen people over 65 years, living in a rural area, and receiving financial support were recruited for semi-structured interviews. Four focus groups were held with rural health professionals. Interviews and focus groups were audio-recorded and transcribed. Thematic analysis was used to identify barriers to primary care access. Findings: Older people’s experience can be understood within the context of a patient perceived set of unwritten rules or social contract – an individual is careful not to bother the doctor in return for additional goodwill when they become unwell. However, most found it difficult to access primary care due to engaged telephone lines, availability of appointments, interactions with receptionists; breaching their perceived social contract. This left some feeling unwelcome, worthless or marginalised, especially those with high expectations of the social contract or limited resources, skills and/or desire to adapt to service changes Health professionals’ described how rising demands and expectations coupled with service constraints had necessitated service development, such as fewer home visits, more telephone consultations, triaging calls and modifying the appointment system. Conclusion: Multiple barriers to accessing primary care exist for this group. As primary care is re-organised to reduce costs, commissioners and practitioners must not lose sight of the perceived social contract and models of care that form the basis of how many older people interact with the service

Soil erosion modelling: A bibliometric analysis

Soil erosion can present a major threat to agriculture due to loss of soil, nutrients, and organic carbon. Therefore, soil erosion modelling is one of the steps used to plan suitable soil protection measures and detect erosion hotspots. A bibliometric analysis of this topic can reveal research patterns and soil erosion modelling characteristics that can help identify steps needed to enhance the research conducted in this field. Therefore, a detailed bibliometric analysis, including investigation of collaboration networks and citation patterns, should be conducted. The updated version of the Global Applications of Soil Erosion Modelling Tracker (GASEMT) database contains information about citation characteristics and publication type. Here, we investigated the impact of the number of authors, the publication type and the selected journal on the number of citations. Generalized boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to evaluate the most relevant variables related to soil erosion modelling. Additionally, bibliometric networks were analysed and visualized. This study revealed that the selection of the soil erosion model has the largest impact on the number of publication citations, followed by the modelling scale and the publication\u27s CiteScore. Some of the other GASEMT database attributes such as model calibration and validation have negligible influence on the number of citations according to the BRT model. Although it is true that studies that conduct calibration, on average, received around 30% more citations, than studies where calibration was not performed. Moreover, the bibliographic coupling and citation networks show a clear continental pattern, although the co-authorship network does not show the same characteristics. Therefore, soil erosion modellers should conduct even more comprehensive review of past studies and focus not just on the research conducted in the same country or continent. Moreover, when evaluating soil erosion models, an additional focus should be given to field measurements, model calibration, performance assessment and uncertainty of modelling results. The results of this study indicate that these GASEMT database attributes had smaller impact on the number of citations, according to the BRT model, than anticipated, which could suggest that these attributes should be given additional attention by the soil erosion modelling community. This study provides a kind of bibliographic benchmark for soil erosion modelling research papers as modellers can estimate the influence of their paper

Soil erosion modelling: A global review and statistical analysis

To gain a better understanding of the global application of soil erosion prediction models, we comprehensivelyreviewed relevant peer-reviewed research literature on soil-erosion modelling published between 1994 and2017. We aimed to identify (i) the processes and models most frequently addressed in the literature, (ii) the re-gions within which models are primarily applied, (iii) the regions which remain unaddressed and why, and (iv)how frequently studies are conducted to validate/evaluate model outcomes relative to measured data. To per-form this task, we combined the collective knowledge of 67 soil-erosion scientists from 25 countries. Theresulting database, named‘Global Applications of Soil Erosion Modelling Tracker (GASEMT)’, includes 3030 indi-vidual modelling records from 126 countries, encompassing all continents (except Antarctica). Out of the 8471articles identified as potentially relevant, we reviewed 1697 appropriate articles and systematically evaluatedand transferred 42 relevant attributes into the database. This GASEMT database provides comprehensive insightsinto the state-of-the-art of soil- erosion models and model applications worldwide. This database intends to sup-port the upcoming country-based United Nations global soil-erosion assessment in addition to helping to informsoil erosion research priorities by building a foundation for future targeted, in-depth analyses. GASEMT is anopen-source database available to the entire user-community to develop research, rectify errors, andmakefutureexpansion

Toward the Assessment of Food Toxicity for Celiac Patients: Characterization of Monoclonal Antibodies to a Main Immunogenic Gluten Peptide

13 pages, 8 figures.-- PMID: 18509534 [PubMed].-- PMCID: PMC2386552.[Background and Aims] Celiac disease is a permanent intolerance to gluten prolamins from wheat, barley, rye and, in some patients, oats. Partially digested gluten peptides produced in the digestive tract cause inflammation of the small intestine. High throughput, immune-based assays using monoclonal antibodies specific for these immunotoxic peptides would facilitate their detection in food and enable monitoring of their enzymatic detoxification. Two monoclonal antibodies, G12 and A1, were developed against a highly immunotoxic 33-mer peptide. The potential of each antibody for quantifying food toxicity for celiac patients was studied.[Methods] Epitope preferences of G12 and A1 antibodies were determined by ELISA with gluten-derived peptide variants of recombinant, synthetic or enzymatic origin.[Results] The recognition sequences of G12 and A1 antibodies were hexameric and heptameric epitopes, respectively. Although G12 affinity for the 33-mer was superior to A1, the sensitivity for gluten detection was higher for A1. This observation correlated to the higher number of A1 epitopes found in prolamins than G12 epitopes. Activation of T cell from gluten digested by glutenases decreased equivalently to the detection of intact peptides by A1 antibody. Peptide recognition of A1 included gliadin peptides involved in the both the adaptive and innate immunological response in celiac disease.[Conclusions] The sensitivity and epitope preferences of the A1 antibody resulted to be useful to detect gluten relevant peptides to infer the potential toxicity of food for celiac patients as well as to monitor peptide modifications by transglutaminase 2 or glutenases.This work was supported by the Asociación de Celiacos de Madrid (to Carolina Sousa), by the CTA (Corporación Tecnológica de Andalucía) and IDEA (Agencia de Innovación y Desarrollo de Andalucía) (to Angel Cebolla) and by grants BFU2007-64999 from Plan Nacional de Investigación científica, Desarrollo e Innovación tecnológica (Miniterio de Educación y Ciencia) and RICET-RD06/0021-0014, Spain (to Manuel C. López). Belén Morón was supported by a fellowship from Consejo Andaluz de Colegios Oficiales de Farmacéuticos.Peer reviewe

Relationship of Weather Types on the Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Rainfall, Runoff, and Sediment Yield in the Western Mediterranean Basin

Rainfall is the key factor to understand soil erosion processes, mechanisms, and rates. Most research was conducted to determine rainfall characteristics and their relationship with soil erosion (erosivity) but there is little information about how atmospheric patterns control soil losses, and this is important to enable sustainable environmental planning and risk prevention. We investigated the temporal and spatial variability of the relationships of rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield with atmospheric patterns (weather types, WTs) in the western Mediterranean basin. For this purpose, we analyzed a large database of rainfall events collected between 1985 and 2015 in 46 experimental plots and catchments with the aim to: (i) evaluate seasonal differences in the contribution of rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield produced by the WTs; and (ii) to analyze the seasonal efficiency of the different WTs (relation frequency and magnitude) related to rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield. The results indicate two different temporal patterns: the first weather type exhibits (during the cold period: autumn and winter) westerly flows that produce the highest rainfall, runoff, and sediment yield values throughout the territory; the second weather type exhibits easterly flows that predominate during the warm period (spring and summer) and it is located on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula. However, the cyclonic situations present high frequency throughout the whole year with a large influence extended around the western Mediterranean basin. Contrary, the anticyclonic situations, despite of its high frequency, do not contribute significantly to the total rainfall, runoff, and sediment (showing the lowest efficiency) because of atmospheric stability that currently characterize this atmospheric pattern. Our approach helps to better understand the relationship of WTs on the seasonal and spatial variability of rainfall, runoff and sediment yield with a regional scale based on the large dataset and number of soil erosion experimental stations.Spanish Government (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, MINECO) and FEDER Projects: CGL2014 52135-C3-3-R, ESP2017-89463-C3-3-R, CGL2014-59946-R, CGL2015-65569-R, CGL2015-64284-C2-2-R, CGL2015-64284-C2-1-R, CGL2016-78075-P, GL2008-02879/BTE, LEDDRA 243857, RECARE-FP7, CGL2017-83866-C3-1-R, and PCIN-2017-061/AEI. Dhais Peña-Angulo received a “Juan de la Cierva” postdoctoral contract (FJCI-2017-33652 Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, MEC). Ana Lucia acknowledge the "Brigitte-Schlieben-Lange-Programm". The “Geoenvironmental Processes and Global Change” (E02_17R) was financed by the Aragón Government and the European Social Fund. José Andrés López-Tarazón acknowledges the Secretariat for Universities and Research of the Department of the Economy and Knowledge of the Autonomous Government of Catalonia for supporting the Consolidated Research Group 2014 SGR 645 (RIUS- Fluvial Dynamics Research Group). Artemi Cerdà thank the funding of the OCDE TAD/CRP JA00088807. José Martínez-Fernandez acknowledges the project Unidad de Excelencia CLU-2018-04 co-funded by FEDER and Castilla y León Government. Ane Zabaleta is supported by the Hydro-Environmental Processes consolidated research group (IT1029-16, Basque Government). This paper has the benefit of the Lab and Field Data Pool created within the framework of the COST action CONNECTEUR (ES1306)