Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Large-scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub-surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have seen numerous successes over several engineering applications, estimations on quantities of interest (QoI) - such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system - suffer from a two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameter values to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameter choices will lead to some amount of uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since DFN simulators rely on stochastic processes to place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e. different seeds) of the same random process leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. We make several design choices to handle an observed heteroskedasticity in DFN simulators, where the aleatoric uncertainty changes for different inputs, since the quality makes several standard statistical methods inadmissible. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables affect uncertainty the most for DFN simulators, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures, journal articl

Where the Rubber meets the Road: Emerging environmental impacts of Tire Wear particles and their chemical cocktails

About 3 billion new tires are produced each year and about 800 million tires become waste annually. Global dependence upon tires produced from natural rubber and petroleum-based compounds represents a persistent and complex environmental problem with only partial and often-times, ineffective solutions. Tire emissions may be in the form of whole tires, tire particles, and chemical compounds, each of which is transported through various atmospheric, terrestrial, and aquatic routes in the natural and built environments. Production and use of tires generates multiple heavy metals, plastics, PAH\u27s, and other compounds that can be toxic alone or as chemical cocktails. Used tires require storage space, are energy intensive to recycle, and generally have few post-wear uses that are not also potential sources of pollutants (e.g., crumb rubber, pavements, burning). Tire particles emitted during use are a major component of microplastics in urban runoff and a source of unique and highly potent toxic substances. Thus, tires represent a ubiquitous and complex pollutant that requires a comprehensive examination to develop effective management and remediation. We approach the issue of tire pollution holistically by examining the life cycle of tires across production, emissions, recycling, and disposal. In this paper, we synthesize recent research and data about the environmental and human health risks associated with the production, use, and disposal of tires and discuss gaps in our knowledge about fate and transport, as well as the toxicology of tire particles and chemical leachates. We examine potential management and remediation approaches for addressing exposure risks across the life cycle of tires. We consider tires as pollutants across three levels: tires in their whole state, as particulates, and as a mixture of chemical cocktails. Finally, we discuss information gaps in our understanding of tires as a pollutant and outline key questions to improve our knowledge and ability to manage and remediate tire pollution

Spectropolarimetric Evidence for Radiatively Inefficient Accretion in an Optically Dull Active Galaxy

We present Subaru/FOCAS spectropolarimetry of two active galaxies in the Cosmic Evolution Survey. These objects were selected to be optically dull, with the bright X-ray emission of an AGN but missing optical emission lines in our previous spectroscopy. Our new observations show that one target has very weak emission lines consistent with an optically dull AGN, while the other object has strong emission lines typical of a host-diluted Type 2 Seyfert galaxy. In neither source do we observe polarized emission lines, with 3-sigma upper limits of P_BLR < 2%. This means that the missing broad emission lines (and weaker narrow emission lines) are not due to simple anisotropic obscuration, e.g., by the canonical AGN torus. The weak-lined optically dull AGN exhibits a blue polarized continuum with P = 0.78 +/- 0.07% at 4400 A < lambda_rest < 7200 A (P = 1.37 +/- 0.16% at 4400 A < lambda_rest < 5050 A). The wavelength dependence of this polarized flux is similar to that of an unobscured AGN continuum and represents the intrinsic AGN emission, either as synchrotron emission or the outer part of an accretion disk reflected by a clumpy dust scatterer. Because this intrinsic AGN emission lacks emission lines, this source is likely to have a radiatively inefficient accretion flow.Comment: Accepted to ApJ. 6 pages, 2 figure

The celebrity entrepreneur on television: profile, politics and power

This article examines the rise of the ‘celebrity entrepreneur’ on television through the emergence of the ‘business entertainment format’ and considers the ways in which regular television exposure can be converted into political influence. Within television studies there has been a preoccupation in recent years with how lifestyle and reality formats work to transform ‘ordinary’ people into celebrities. As a result, the contribution of vocationally skilled business professionals to factual entertainment programming has gone almost unnoticed. This article draws on interviews with key media industry professionals and begins by looking at the construction of entrepreneurs as different types of television personalities and how discourses of work, skill and knowledge function in business shows. It then outlines how entrepreneurs can utilize their newly acquired televisual skills to cultivate a wider media profile and secure various forms of political access and influence. Integral to this is the centrality of public relations and media management agencies in shaping media discourses and developing the individual as a ‘brand identity’ that can be used to endorse a range of products or ideas. This has led to policy makers and politicians attempting to mobilize the media profile of celebrity entrepreneurs to reach out and connect with the public on business and enterprise-related issues

Geographic Coincidence of Increased Malaria Transmission Hazard and Vulnerability Occurring at the Periphery of two Tanzanian Villages.

The goal of malaria elimination necessitates an improved understanding of any fine-scale geographic variations in transmission risk so that complementary vector control tools can be integrated into current vector control programmes as supplementary measures that are spatially targeted to maximize impact upon residual transmission. This study examines the distribution of host-seeking malaria vectors at households within two villages in rural Tanzania. Host-seeking mosquitoes were sampled from 72 randomly selected households in two villages on a monthly basis throughout 2008 using CDC light-traps placed beside occupied nets. Spatial autocorrelation in the dataset was examined using the Moran's I statistic and the location of any clusters was identified using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. Statistical associations between the household characteristics and clusters of mosquitoes were assessed using a generalized linear model for each species. For both Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and Anopheles funestus, the density of host-seeking females was spatially autocorrelated, or clustered. For both species, houses with low densities were clustered in the semi-urban village centre while houses with high densities were clustered in the periphery of the villages. Clusters of houses with low or high densities of An. gambiae s.l. were influenced by the number of residents in nearby houses. The occurrence of high-density clusters of An. gambiae s.l. was associated with lower elevations while An. funestus was also associated with higher elevations. Distance from the village centre was also positively correlated with the number of household occupants and having houses constructed with open eaves. The results of the current study highlight that complementary vector control tools could be most effectively targeted to the periphery of villages where the households potentially have a higher hazard (mosquito densities) and vulnerability (open eaves and larger households) to malaria infection

Bayesian Learning of Gas Transport in Three-Dimensional Fracture Networks

Modeling gas flow through fractures of subsurface rock is a particularly challenging problem because of the heterogeneous nature of the material. High-fidelity simulations using discrete fracture network (DFN) models are one methodology for predicting gas particle breakthrough times at the surface, but are computationally demanding. We propose a Bayesian machine learning method that serves as an efficient surrogate model, or emulator, for these three-dimensional DFN simulations. Our model trains on a small quantity of simulation data and, using a graph/path-based decomposition of the fracture network, rapidly predicts quantiles of the breakthrough time distribution. The approach, based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), outputs predictions that are within 20-30% of high-fidelity DFN simulation results. Unlike previously proposed methods, it also provides uncertainty quantification, outputting confidence intervals that are essential given the uncertainty inherent in subsurface modeling. Our trained model runs within a fraction of a second, which is considerably faster than other methods with comparable accuracy and multiple orders of magnitude faster than high-fidelity simulations

The Nature of Optically Dull Active Galactic Nuclei in COSMOS

We present infrared, optical, and X-ray data of 48 X-ray bright, optically dull AGNs in the COSMOS field. These objects exhibit the X-ray luminosity of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) but lack broad and narrow emission lines in their optical spectrum. We show that despite the lack of optical emission lines, most of these optically dull AGNs are not well-described by a typical passive red galaxy spectrum: instead they exhibit weak but significant blue emission like an unobscured AGN. Photometric observations over several years additionally show significant variability in the blue emission of four optically dull AGNs. The nature of the blue and infrared emission suggest that the optically inactive appearance of these AGNs cannot be caused by obscuration intrinsic to the AGNs. Instead, up to ~70% of optically dull AGNs are diluted by their hosts, with bright or simply edge-on hosts lying preferentially within the spectroscopic aperture. The remaining ~30% of optically dull AGNs have anomalously high f_x/f_o ratios and are intrinsically weak, not obscured, in the optical. These optically dull AGNs are best described as a weakly accreting AGN with a truncated accretion disk from a radiatively inefficient accretion flow.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in the Ap

Accretion Rate and the Physical Nature of Unobscured Active Galaxies

We show how accretion rate governs the physical properties of a sample of unobscured broad-line, narrow-line, and lineless active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We avoid the systematic errors plaguing previous studies of AGN accretion rate by using accurate accretion luminosities (L_int) from well-sampled multiwavelength SEDs from the Cosmic Evolution Survey (COSMOS), and accurate black hole masses derived from virial scaling relations (for broad-line AGNs) or host-AGN relations (for narrow-line and lineless AGNs). In general, broad emission lines are present only at the highest accretion rates (L_int/L_Edd > 0.01), and these rapidly accreting AGNs are observed as broad-line AGNs or possibly as obscured narrow-line AGNs. Narrow-line and lineless AGNs at lower specific accretion rates (L_int/L_Edd < 0.01) are unobscured and yet lack a broad line region. The disappearance of the broad emission lines is caused by an expanding radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) at the inner radius of the accretion disk. The presence of the RIAF also drives L_int/L_Edd < 10^-2 narrow-line and lineless AGNs to 10 times higher ratios of radio to optical/UV emission than L_int/L_Edd > 0.01 broad-line AGNs, since the unbound nature of the RIAF means it is easier to form a radio outflow. The IR torus signature also tends to become weaker or disappear from L_int/L_Edd < 0.01 AGNs, although there may be additional mid-IR synchrotron emission associated with the RIAF. Together these results suggest that specific accretion rate is an important physical "axis" of AGN unification, described by a simple model.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. 15 pages, 9 figure

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals.Assess whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics.A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings.We conclude the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and would also advance the science of decision analysis.We advance four recommendations: (1) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts