Statistical ecology comes of age

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.Peer reviewe

Large‐scale modelling of deep‐diving cetacean habitats

Versión del editor5,14

Mise au point d'un modele probabiliste applique a l'etude de l'epidemiologie des virus transmis sur le mode non-persistant : premiers resultats de simulation

National audienc

Modelisation de la dynamique de repartition de l'azote chez un jeune arbre fruitier pendant la phase de croissance exponentielle. II. - Validation. Analyse de l'erreur. Simulation

National audienceA model of nitrogen partitioning in young fruit trees was presented in earlier work. Numerical simulations of the model have now been compared to experimental data. These data are independent of those being used to model and fit the parameters. Simulations and experiments were in quite good agreement and the model is considered as being validated. Nevertheless some failings of the model are pointed out and discussed. The residual error « experimental data - simulated data » is analysed. The total amount of nitrogen in the vegetative parts could be predicted with good precision, but the residual error of the nitrogen content could not be lowered. An example is shown how this kind of model could be used to prepare an experimental design. An experiment on the time of application of nitrogen fertiliser is briefly discussed.Un modèle de transfert de l’azote endogène chez de jeunes arbres fruitiers a été proposé par les auteurs dans un article précédent (Habib & Monestiez, 1987). Des simulations numériques sont confrontées à des données d’expériences indépendantes de celles ayant servi à la mise au point du modèle. Cette confrontation permet de considérer que le modèle est globalement validé. Cependant, l’analyse des résultats a mis en évidence certains défauts de modélisation qui sont discutés. Par ailleurs, les résidus « mesure-modèle » sont analysés. En particulier, il est démontré que les masses totales d’azote des organes végétaux peuvent être prévues avec une bonne précision ; par contre, il n’est pas possible de diminuer l’erreur résiduelle concernant les teneurs en azote. A titre d’illustration, il est montré comment ce type de modèle pourrait être employé pour préparer un plan d’expériences. Le cas d’un essai de calendrier de fertilisation est rapidement commenté

Relationship between tessellations and tree patterns created by large cylindrical pore systems in soils

SupplementInternational audienc

A spatial covariance model with a single wave effect and a finite range

International audienceWe propose a new spatial covariance model with a single wave effect and a finite range. The construction of this model is based on a radial kernel composed of two concentric spheres and the finite range enables us to obtain an exact simulation from the circulant embedding method. This model responds to the lack of efficient covariance functions to model patterns characterized by concentration areas surrounded by gaps. We compare the single wave model to other existing hole effect models such as the Bessel model, the damped cosine model and the cardinal sine mode