Determinants of energy futures - a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure

Energy policy and investment are commonly informed by a small number of scenarios, modelled with proprietary models and closed data-sets. It limits what levels of insight that can be derived from it. This paper overcomes these critical concerns by exploring a large number of scenarios with an open-data and open-source model to address regional mitigation policy. Focusing on South America, we translate an ensemble of long-term electricity supply scenarios into policy insights and use post-processing methods to present a systematic mapping of solution outputs to model inputs. We find demand levels, the cost of capital and the level of CO2-limits to be significant determinants of total investment cost. Low-carbon pathways are associated with low demand and low cost of capital. When cost of capital increases a shift away from wind and hydropower to natural gas and solar PV is seen. We further show that appropriate concessionary finance together with energy efficiency measures are critical – at a continental level – to unlock economic, low-carbon investment

Integrating genetics, biophysical, and demographic insights identifies critical sites for seagrass conservation

Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America The eelgrass Zostera marina is an important foundation species of coastal areas in the Northern Hemisphere, but is continuing to decline, despite management actions. The development of new management tools is therefore urgent in order to prioritize limited resources for protecting meadows most vulnerable to local extinctions and identifying most valuable present and historic meadows to protect and restore, respectively. We assessed 377 eelgrass meadows along the complex coastlines of two fjord regions on the Swedish west coast—one is currently healthy and the other is substantially degraded. Shoot dispersal for all meadows was assessed with Lagrangian biophysical modeling (scale: 100–1,000\ua0m) and used for barrier analysis and clustering; a subset (n\ua0=\ua022) was also assessed with population genetic methods (20 microsatellites) including diversity, structure, and network connectivity. Both approaches were in very good agreement, resulting in seven subpopulation groupings or management units (MUs). The MUs correspond to a spatial scale appropriate for coastal management of “waterbodies” used in the European Water Framework Directive. Adding demographic modeling based on the genetic and biophysical data as a third approach, we are able to assess past, present, and future metapopulation dynamics to identify especially vulnerable and valuable meadows. In a further application, we show how the biophysical approach, using eigenvalue perturbation theory (EPT) and distribution records from the 1980s, can be used to identify lost meadows where restoration would best benefit the present metapopulation. The combination of methods, presented here as a toolbox, allows the assessment of different temporal and spatial scales at the same time, as well as ranking of specific meadows according to key genetic, demographic and ecological metrics. It could be applied to any species or region, and we exemplify its versatility as a management guide for eelgrass along the Swedish west coast

Uncovering Dangerous Cheats: How Do Avian Hosts Recognize Adult Brood Parasites?

BACKGROUND: Co-evolutionary struggles between dangerous enemies (e.g., brood parasites) and their victims (hosts) lead to the emergence of sophisticated adaptations and counter-adaptations. Salient host tricks to reduce parasitism costs include, as front line defence, adult enemy discrimination. In contrast to the well studied egg stage, investigations addressing the specific cues for adult enemy recognition are rare. Previous studies have suggested barred underparts and yellow eyes may provide cues for the recognition of cuckoos Cuculus canorus by their hosts; however, no study to date has examined the role of the two cues simultaneously under a consistent experimental paradigm. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We modify and extend previous work using a novel experimental approach--custom-made dummies with various combinations of hypothesized recognition cues. The salient recognition cue turned out to be the yellow eye. Barred underparts, the only trait examined previously, had a statistically significant but small effect on host aggression highlighting the importance of effect size vs. statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Relative importance of eye vs. underpart phenotypes may reflect ecological context of host-parasite interaction: yellow eyes are conspicuous from the typical direction of host arrival (from above), whereas barred underparts are poorly visible (being visually blocked by the upper part of the cuckoo's body). This visual constraint may reduce usefulness of barred underparts as a reliable recognition cue under a typical situation near host nests. We propose a novel hypothesis that recognition cues for enemy detection can vary in a context-dependent manner (e.g., depending on whether the enemy is approached from below or from above). Further we suggest a particular cue can trigger fear reactions (escape) in some hosts/populations whereas the same cue can trigger aggression (attack) in other hosts/populations depending on presence/absence of dangerous enemies that are phenotypically similar to brood parasites and costs and benefits associated with particular host responses

No barrier to emergence of bathyal king crabs on the Antarctic shelf

Cold-water conditions have excluded durophagous (skeleton-breaking) predators from the Antarctic seafloor for millions of years. Rapidly warming seas off the western Antarctic Peninsula could now facilitate their return to the continental shelf, with profound consequences for the endemic fauna. Among the likely first arrivals are king crabs (Lithodidae), which were discovered recently on the adjacent continental slope. During the austral summer of 2010‒2011, we used underwater imagery to survey a slope-dwelling population of the lithodid Paralomis birsteini off Marguerite Bay, western Antarctic Peninsula for environmental or trophic impediments to shoreward expansion. The population density averaged ∼4.5 individuals × 1,000 m(−2) within a depth range of 1,100‒1,500 m (overall observed depth range 841–2,266 m). Images of juveniles, discarded molts, and precopulatory behavior, as well as gravid females in a trapping study, suggested a reproductively viable population on the slope. At the time of the survey, there was no thermal barrier to prevent the lithodids from expanding upward and emerging on the outer shelf (400- to 550-m depth); however, near-surface temperatures remained too cold for them to survive in inner-shelf and coastal environments (<200 m). Ambient salinity, composition of the substrate, and the depth distribution of potential predators likewise indicated no barriers to expansion of lithodids onto the outer shelf. Primary food resources for lithodids—echinoderms and mollusks—were abundant on the upper slope (550–800 m) and outer shelf. As sea temperatures continue to rise, lithodids will likely play an increasingly important role in the trophic structure of subtidal communities closer to shore

Coevolution in Action: Disruptive Selection on Egg Colour in an Avian Brood Parasite and Its Host

Trait polymorphism can evolve as a consequence of frequency-dependent selection. Coevolutionary interactions between hosts and parasites may lead to selection on both to evolve extreme phenotypes deviating from the norm, through disruptive selection.Here, we show through detailed field studies and experimental procedures that the ashy-throated parrotbill (Paradoxornis alphonsianus) and its avian brood parasite, the common cuckoo (Cuculus canorus), have both evolved egg polymorphism manifested in discrete immaculate white, pale blue, and blue egg phenotypes within a single population. In this host-parasite system the most common egg colours were white and blue, with no significant difference in parasitism rates between hosts laying eggs of either colour. Furthermore, selection on parasites for countering the evolution of host egg types appears to be strong, since ashy-throated parrotbills have evolved rejection abilities for even partially mimetic eggs.The parrotbill-cuckoo system constitutes a clear outcome of disruptive selection on both host and parasite egg phenotypes driven by coevolution, due to the cost of parasitism in the host and by host defences in the parasite. The present study is to our knowledge the first to report the influence of disruptive selection on evolution of discrete phenotypes in both parasite and host traits in an avian brood parasitism system

Trans-omics biomarker model improves prognostic prediction accuracy for early-stage lung adenocarcinoma

Limited studies have focused on developing prognostic models with trans-omics biomarkers for early-stage lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD). We performed integrative analysis of clinical information, DNA methylation, and gene expression data using 825 early-stage LUAD patients from 5 cohorts. Ranger algorithm was used to screen prognosis-associated biomarkers, which were confirmed with a validation phase. Clinical and biomarker information was fused using an iCluster plus algorithm, which significantly distinguished patients into high- and low-mortality risk groups (Pdiscovery = 0.01 and Pvalidation = 2.71×10-3). Further, potential functional DNA methylation-gene expression-overall survival pathways were evaluated by causal mediation analysis. The effect of DNA methylation level on LUAD survival was significantly mediated through gene expression level. By adding DNA methylation and gene expression biomarkers to a model of only clinical data, the AUCs of the trans-omics model improved by 18.3% (to 87.2%) and 16.4% (to 85.3%) in discovery and validation phases, respectively. Further, concordance index of the nomogram was 0.81 and 0.77 in discovery and validation phases, respectively. Based on systematic review of published literatures, our model was superior to all existing models for early-stage LUAD. In summary, our trans-omics model may help physicians accurately identify patients with high mortality risk

Social support, stress, health, and academic success in Ghanaian adolescents: A path analysis

The aim of this study is to gain a better understanding of the role psychosocial factors play in promoting the health and academic success of adolescents. A total of 770 adolescent boys and girls in Senior High Schools were randomly selected to complete a self-report questionnaire. School reported latest terminal examination grades were used as the measure of academic success. Structural equation modelling indicated a relatively good fit to the posteriori model with four of the hypothesised paths fully supported and two partially supported. Perceived social support was negatively related to stress and predictive of health and wellbeing but not academic success. Stress was predictive of health but not academic success. Finally, health and wellbeing was able to predict academic success. These findings have policy implications regarding efforts aimed at promoting the health and wellbeing as well as the academic success of adolescents in Ghana. © 2014 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents

Latitude, temperature, and habitat complexity predict predation pressure in eelgrass beds across the Northern Hemisphere

Latitudinal gradients in species interactions are widely cited as potential causes or consequences of global patterns of biodiversity. However, mechanistic studies documenting changes in interactions across broad geographic ranges are limited. We surveyed predation intensity on common prey (live amphipods and gastropods) in communities of eelgrass (Zostera marina) at 48 sites across its Northern Hemisphere range, encompassing over 370 of latitude and four continental coastlines. Predation on amphipods declined with latitude on all coasts but declined more strongly along western ocean margins where temperature gradients are steeper. Whereas in situ water temperature at the time of the experiments was uncorrelated with predation, mean annual temperature strongly positively predicted predation, suggesting a more complex mechanism than simple increased metabolic activity at the time of predation. This large-scale biogeographic pattern was modified by local habitat characteristics; predation declined with higher shoot density both among and within sites. Predation rates on gastropods, by contrast, were uniformly low and varied little among sites. The high replication and geographic extent of our study not only provides additional evidence to support biogeographic variation in intensity, but also insight into the mechanisms that relate temperature and biogeographic gradients in species interactions

A Pleistocene legacy structures variation in modern seagrass ecosystems

Distribution of Earth's biomes is structured by the match between climate and plant traits, which in turn shape associated communities and ecosystem processes and services. However, that climate-trait match can be disrupted by historical events, with lasting ecosystem impacts. As Earth's environment changes faster than at any time in human history, critical questions are whether and how organismal traits and ecosystems can adjust to altered conditions. We quantified the relative importance of current environmental forcing versus evolutionary history in shaping the growth form (stature and biomass) and associated community of eelgrass (Zostera marina), a widespread foundation plant of marine ecosystems along Northern Hemisphere coastlines, which experienced major shifts in distribution and genetic composition during the Pleistocene. We found that eelgrass stature and biomass retain a legacy of the Pleistocene colonization of the Atlantic from the ancestral Pacific range and of more recent within-basin bottlenecks and genetic differentiation. This evolutionary legacy in turn influences the biomass of associated algae and invertebrates that fuel coastal food webs, with effects comparable to or stronger than effects of current environmental forcing. Such historical lags in phenotypic acclimatization may constrain ecosystem adjustments to rapid anthropogenic climate change, thus altering predictions about the future functioning of ecosystems.This work was supported by the US NSF (OCE-1031061, OCE-1336206, OCE0-1336741, OCE-1336905) and the Smithsonian Institution. F.T. was supported by José Castillejo Award CAS14/00177. A.H.E. was supported by the FCT (Foundation for Science and Technology) through Project UIDB/04326/2020 and Contract CEECINST/00114/2018. This is Contribution 106 from the Smithsonian’s MarineGEO and Tennenbaum Marine Observatories Network and Contribution 4105 of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary