Economic Transformation and Growth in the Philippines: An Analysis of Political Settlements, Rents, and Deals

The main gateway for the Philippines to develop and become an upper-middle-income economy—and eventually, a high-income economy—is to expedite the shift of workers out of agriculture and to produce and export more complex products with a higher income elasticity of demand. The actual growth rate is constrained by the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate, about 6%—the maximum the country can attain without incurring balance-of-payments problems. We use the Pritchett-Sen-Werker political-economy framework to analyze the role of different types of firms and the deals environment during successive Philippine administrations until the current one. Due to their economic size and political power, only the nation’s conglomerates will be able to lead the transformation of the economy. However, the country’s large groups do not have incentives or see the need to shift to the production and export of tradable. Without this transformation, the country will be able to register positive growth but will not become an internationally competitive economy, and will not be able to achieve, and especially maintain, the growth rate targeted by the current administration: 6.5%–8% per annum during 2023–2028

Monitoring the Philippine Economy Fourth Quarter Report for 2022

The Philippine economy grew 7.2 percent, featuring robust growth despite facing domestic challenges. Fourth quarter growth reflected a more optimistic consumer sentiment as the economy continued to open up. Economic growth in Q4 2022 was 7.2 percent year-on-year and 17.1 percent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), showing the Philippines’ consistent effort to create a positive growth outlook for the economy (see Table 1). Year-on-year growth exceeded the median analyst forecast of 6.8 percent despite accelerating inflation and growing food security issues. Revenge spending continues to drive consumption on the demand side while service sector growth remains headstrong on the supply side amid stunted growth in the industry and agriculture sectors. Meanwhile, an expected reversal to a balance-of-payments surplus at December-end was fueled by remittances and tourism receipts during the holiday season. The trade deficit narrowed as well in Q4-end, with prospects for trade looking bright with the Senate’s eventual ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in the next quarter. Looking ahead, the central bank and national government must continue to determine the effective mix of policies and straighten out its priorities to support the economy\u27s recovery

Monitoring the Philippine Economy State of the Economy Report

The Philippine economy recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic during 2022. It posted a very high annual growth rate, 7.6%, although this must be understood in the context of a low base. AKI’s State of the Economy Report focuses on three issues in the context of the new Administration’s 8-Point Socioeconomic Agenda and the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028: growth, inflation, and the fiscal deficit and national debt. Overall, we have a positive view of the economy over the medium and long-term. However, we argue that: -The focus of economic policy has to shift decisively toward changing the structure of the economy by reducing the share of employment in agriculture and increasing exports of more complex products. Otherwise, it will be very difficult to attain (and even more so, maintain) an annual growth rate of 6.5-8% during 2024-2028, as targeted by the administration. -The Russia-Ukraine war price hike has been exacerbated by low productivity growth and an inefficient distribution system. Prices increased significantly within the Food and Housing groups. Nevertheless, the overall price increase (5.8% in 2022 and 8.3% in the first quarter of 2023) was not as dramatic as it has often been portrayed and treated. Interest rate increases will not do the job because this is not a case of excessive demand. -The government does not have full control of the fiscal outcome. Hence, targeting a 3% fiscal deficit by 2028 is an erroneous goal. The fiscal deficit outcome is mostly residual and depends on the saving preferences of the private sector. If the latter decideds to net save, the government wil have to run a fiscal deficit. Likewise, the reduction in national debt to about 50% of GDP by 2028 is also an unclear goal as most of it is domestic currency, and interest rate payments are income for the private sector. Debt issuance is a tool to maintain interest rates within the corridor set by BSP. The government of the Philippines will not default on debt issued in its own currency unless it voluntarily chooses to do so. -The administration ought to recalibrate some objetives of its economic program

How Trade Liberalization and Labor Development Could Coincide in the Philippines

As the world adapts to the rapid pace of globalization in the 21st century, countries ease trade restrictions by gradually removing tariffs and non-tariff barriers to incentivize the free flow of goods across nations. This prevalence of trade liberalization policies propelled policymakers and economists to investigate the relationship between trade reforms and economic outcomes including wage inequality around the world. They found that trade liberalization, on average, has had a positive impact on economic growth, but prior studies that examine the effects of trade liberalization on wage inequality in developing countries have found mixed results. Recently, Murakami (2021) examined the impact of trade liberalization on wage inequality in Chile through the reduction in effective tariffs brought about by the regional trade agreements of the country. Following his empirical strategy, we examine the impact of trade liberalization on wage inequality in the Philippines. In this policy brief, we provide insights on our findings and policy recommendations that the Philippines can undertak

Search for new particles in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for new particles produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at root s = 13 TeV, using events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb(-1), collected in 2017-2018 with the CMS detector. Machine learning techniques are used to define separate categories for events with narrow jets from initial-state radiation and events with large-radius jets consistent with a hadronic decay of a W or Z boson. A statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data sample of 36 fb(-1), collected in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed with respect to the standard model background expectation determined from control samples in data. The results are interpreted in terms of limits on the branching fraction of an invisible decay of the Higgs boson, as well as constraints on simplified models of dark matter, on first-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying to quarks and neutrinos, and on models with large extra dimensions. Several of the new limits, specifically for spin-1 dark matter mediators, pseudoscalar mediators, colored mediators, and leptoquarks, are the most restrictive to date.Peer reviewe

Combined searches for the production of supersymmetric top quark partners in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A combination of searches for top squark pair production using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected by the CMS experiment, is presented. Signatures with at least 2 jets and large missing transverse momentum are categorized into events with 0, 1, or 2 leptons. New results for regions of parameter space where the kinematical properties of top squark pair production and top quark pair production are very similar are presented. Depending on themodel, the combined result excludes a top squarkmass up to 1325 GeV for amassless neutralino, and a neutralinomass up to 700 GeV for a top squarkmass of 1150 GeV. Top squarks with masses from 145 to 295 GeV, for neutralino masses from 0 to 100 GeV, with a mass difference between the top squark and the neutralino in a window of 30 GeV around the mass of the top quark, are excluded for the first time with CMS data. The results of theses searches are also interpreted in an alternative signal model of dark matter production via a spin-0 mediator in association with a top quark pair. Upper limits are set on the cross section for mediator particle masses of up to 420 GeV

Probing effective field theory operators in the associated production of top quarks with a Z boson in multilepton final states at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

Measurements of the Electroweak Diboson Production Cross Sections in Proton-Proton Collisions at root s=5.02 TeV Using Leptonic Decays

The first measurements of diboson production cross sections in proton-proton interactions at a center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV are reported. They are based on data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 302 pb(-1). Events with two, three, or four charged light leptons (electrons or muons) in the final state are analyzed. The WW, WZ, and ZZ total cross sections are measured as sigma(WW) = 37:0(-5.2)(+5.5) (stat)(-2.6)(+2.7) (syst) pb, sigma(WZ) = 6.4(-2.1)(+2.5) (stat)(-0.3)(+0.5)(syst) pb, and sigma(ZZ) = 5.3(-2.1)(+2.5)(stat)(-0.4)(+0.5) (syst) pb. All measurements are in good agreement with theoretical calculations at combined next-to-next-to-leading order quantum chromodynamics and next-to-leading order electroweak accuracy

Search for lepton-flavor violating decays of the Higgs boson in the mu tau and e tau final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for lepton-flavor violating decays of the Higgs boson to mu t and et. The dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No significant excess has been found, and the results are interpreted in terms of upper limits on lepton-flavor violating branching fractions of the Higgs boson. The observed (expected) upper limits on the branching fractions are, respectively, B(H -> mu t) e tau) < 0.22(0.16)% at 95% confidence level.Peer reviewe

Search for a heavy Higgs boson decaying into two lighter Higgs bosons in the tau tau bb final state at 13 TeV

A search for a heavy Higgs boson H decaying into the observed Higgs boson h with a mass of 125 GeV and another Higgs boson h(S) is presented. The h and h(S) bosons are required to decay into a pair of tau leptons and a pair of b quarks, respectively. The search uses a sample of proton-proton collisions collected with the CMS detector at a center-of-mass energy of 13TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1). Mass ranges of 240-3000 GeV for m(H) and 60-2800 GeV for m(hS) are explored in the search. No signal has been observed. Model independent 95% confidence level upper limits on the product of the production cross section and the branching fractions of the signal process are set with a sensitivity ranging from 125 fb (for m(H) = 240 GeV) to 2.7 fb (for m(H) = 1000 GeV). These limits are compared to maximally allowed products of the production cross section and the branching fractions of the signal process in the next-to-minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model.Peer reviewe