Modélisation bayésienne avec des splines du comportement moyen d'un échantillon de courbes

Cette thèse porte sur l'analyse bayésienne de données fonctionnelles dans un contexte hydrologique. L'objectif principal est de modéliser des données d'écoulements d'eau d'une manière parcimonieuse tout en reproduisant adéquatement les caractéristiques statistiques de celles-ci. L'analyse de données fonctionnelles nous amène à considérer les séries chronologiques d'écoulements d'eau comme des fonctions à modéliser avec une méthode non paramétrique. Dans un premier temps, les fonctions sont rendues plus homogènes en les synchronisant. Ensuite, disposant d'un échantillon de courbes homogènes, nous procédons à la modélisation de leurs caractéristiques statistiques en faisant appel aux splines de régression bayésiennes dans un cadre probabiliste assez général. Plus spécifiquement, nous étudions une famille de distributions continues, qui inclut celles de la famille exponentielle, de laquelle les observations peuvent provenir. De plus, afin d'avoir un outil de modélisation non paramétrique flexible, nous traitons les noeuds intérieurs, qui définissent les éléments de la base des splines de régression, comme des quantités aléatoires. Nous utilisons alors le MCMC avec sauts réversibles afin d'explorer la distribution a posteriori des noeuds intérieurs. Afin de simplifier cette procédure dans notre contexte général de modélisation, nous considérons des approximations de la distribution marginale des observations, nommément une approximation basée sur le critère d'information de Schwarz et une autre qui fait appel à l'approximation de Laplace. En plus de modéliser la tendance centrale d'un échantillon de courbes, nous proposons aussi une méthodologie pour modéliser simultanément la tendance centrale et la dispersion de ces courbes, et ce dans notre cadre probabiliste général. Finalement, puisque nous étudions une diversité de distributions statistiques au niveau des observations, nous mettons de l'avant une approche afin de déterminer les distributions les plus adéquates pour un échantillon de courbes donné.This thesis is about Bayesian functional data analysis in hydrology. The main objective is to model water flow data in a parsimonious fashion while still reproducing the statistical features of the data. Functional data analysis leads us to consider the water flow time series as functions to be modelled with a nonparametric method. First, the functions are registered in order to make them more homogeneous. With a more homogeneous sample of curves, we proceed to model their statistical features by relying on Bayesian regression splines in a fairly broad probabilistic framework. More specifically, we study a family of continuous distributions, which include those of the exponential family, from which the data might have arisen. Furthermore, to have a flexible nonparametric modeling tool, we treat the interior knots, which define the basis elements of the regression splines, as random quantities. We then use MCMC with reversible jumps in order to explore the posterior distribution of the interior knots. In order to simplify the procedure in our general modeling context, we consider some approximations for the marginal distribution of the observations, namely one based on the Schwarz information criterion and another which relies on Laplace's approximation. In addition to modeling the central tendency of a sample of curves, we also propose a methodology to simultaneously model the central tendency and the dispersion of the curves in our general probabilistic framework. Finally, since we study several statistical distributions for the observations, we put forward an approach to determine the most adequate distributions for a given sample of curves

European institutions?

© 2016 The British Society for Phenomenology. The aim of this article is to sketch a phenomenological theory of political institutions and to apply it to some objections and questions raised by Pierre Manent about the project of the European Union and more specifically the question of “European Construction”, i.e. what is the aim of the European Project. Such a theory of political institutions is nested within a broader phenomenological account of institutions, dimensions of which I have tried to elaborate elsewhere. As a working conceptual delineation, we can describe institutions as (relatively) stable meaning structures. As such, the definition encompasses phenomena like the European Commission, Belgium, marriage, the Dollar, the Labour Party, but also political subjects themselves. In order to develop said theory of institutions, I will draw primarily upon resources in the work of Maurice Merleau-Ponty and John Searle

Hearing the silences: adult Nigerian women’s accounts of ‘early marriages’

‘Early marriage’ is a relatively common, but under-researched global phenomenon, associated with poor health, mental health, educational and occupational outcomes, particularly for young girls. In this article, we draw on qualitative interviews with 6 Nigerian women from Sokoto State, who were married between the ages of 8 and 15. The interviews explored young women’s experiences of the transition to marriage, being married, pregnancy and their understanding of the marital and parental role. Using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis, we explore women’s constrained articulations of their experiences of early marriage, as they are constituted within a social context where the identity of ‘woman’ is bound up in values and practices around marriage and motherhood. We explore the complexity of ‘hearing’ women’s experiences when their identities are bound up in culturally overdetermined ideas of femininity that function explicitly to silence and constrain the spaces in which women can speak

Merleau-Ponty and the Measuring Body

In recent years a growing number of scholars in science studies and related fields are developing new ontologies to displace entrenched dualisms. These efforts often go together with a renewed interest in the roles played by symbolisms and tools in knowledge and being. This article brings Maurice Merleau-Ponty into these conversations, positioning him as a precursor of today’s innovative recastings of technoscience. While Merleau-Ponty is often invoked in relation to his early work on the body and embodiment, this article focuses on his later work, where the investigation of perception is integrated with an ontological exploration. The resulting approach revolves around the highly original idea of the body as a standard of measurement. We further develop this idea by coining the term ‘the measuring body’, which to a greater extent than did Merleau-Ponty accentuates the relative autonomy of symbolisms and tools and their capacity to decentre the perceiving body

The pirate in the pump: children's views of objects as imaginary friends at the start of school

The main aim of this paper is to use a phenomenological approach (Merleau-Ponty, 1962. Phenomenology of Perception. Evanston: Northwestern University Press; Merleau-Ponty. 1968. The Visible and the Invisible: Followed by Working Notes. Evanston: Northern University Press) to contribute a new theoretical understanding of what imaginary friends mean for children in the context of starting school. The paper addresses the specific area of ‘object-friends’ and draws on examples from an empirical and consultative study of a small sample of five and six-year-old children’s everyday experiences of friendship in school. The paper argues that if practitioners consider embodiment approaches and listen attentively to the knowledge and information that children share about their imaginary friends, this could be used to nurture children’s early learnin

What is embodiment? a psychometric approach

What is it like to have a body? The present study takes a psychometric approach to this question. We collected structured introspective reports of the rubber hand illusion, to systematically investigate the structure of bodily self-consciousness. Participants observed a rubber hand that was stroked either synchronously or asynchronously with their own hand and then made proprioceptive judgments of the location of their own hand and used Likert scales to rate their agreement or disagreement with 27 statements relating to their subjective experience of the illusion. Principal components analysis of this data revealed four major components of the experience across conditions, which we interpret as: embodiment of rubber hand, loss of own hand, movement, and affect. In the asynchronous condition, an additional fifth component, deafference, was found. Secondary analysis of the embodiment of runner hand component revealed three subcomponents in both conditions: ownership, location, and agency. The ownership and location components were independent significant predictors of proprioceptive biases induced by the illusion. These results suggest that psychometric tools may provide a rich method for studying the structure of conscious experience, and point the way towards an empirically rigorous phenomenology

Embodied cognitive ecosophy: the relationship of mind, body, meaning and ecology

The concept of embodied cognition has had a major impact in a number of disciplines. The extent of its consequences on general knowledge and epistemology are still being explored. Embodied cognition in human geography has its own traditions and discourses but these have become somewhat isolated in the discipline itself. This paper argues that findings in other disciplines are of value in reconceptualising embodied cognition in human geography and this is explored by reconsidering the concept of ecosophy. Criticisms of ecosophy as a theory are considered and recent work in embodied cognition is applied to consider how such criticisms might be addressed. An updated conceptualisation is proposed, the embodied cognitive ecosophy, and three characteristics arising from this criticism and synthesis are presented with a view to inform future discussions of ecosophy and emotional geography

Early respiratory viral infections in infants with cystic fibrosis

This article is made available for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.Background Viral infections contribute to morbidity in cystic fibrosis (CF), but the impact of respiratory viruses on the development of airway disease is poorly understood. Methods Infants with CF identified by newborn screening were enrolled prior to 4 months of age to participate in a prospective observational study at 4 centers. Clinical data were collected at clinic visits and weekly phone calls. Multiplex PCR assays were performed on nasopharyngeal swabs to detect respiratory viruses during routine visits and when symptomatic. Participants underwent bronchoscopy with bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and a subset underwent pulmonary function testing. We present findings through 8.5 months of life. Results Seventy infants were enrolled, mean age 3.1 ± 0.8 months. Rhinovirus was the most prevalent virus (66%), followed by parainfluenza (19%), and coronavirus (16%). Participants had a median of 1.5 viral positive swabs (range 0–10). Past viral infection was associated with elevated neutrophil concentrations and bacterial isolates in BAL fluid, including recovery of classic CF bacterial pathogens. When antibiotics were prescribed for respiratory-related indications, viruses were identified in 52% of those instances. Conclusions Early viral infections were associated with greater neutrophilic inflammation and bacterial pathogens. Early viral infections appear to contribute to initiation of lower airway inflammation in infants with CF. Antibiotics were commonly prescribed in the setting of a viral infection. Future investigations examining longitudinal relationships between viral infections, airway microbiome, and antibiotic use will allow us to elucidate the interplay between these factors in young children with CF

Symbiotic modeling: Linguistic Anthropology and the promise of chiasmus

Reflexive observations and observations of reflexivity: such agendas are by now standard practice in anthropology. Dynamic feedback loops between self and other, cause and effect, represented and representamen may no longer seem surprising; but, in spite of our enhanced awareness, little deliberate attention is devoted to modeling or grounding such phenomena. Attending to both linguistic and extra-linguistic modalities of chiasmus (the X figure), a group of anthropologists has recently embraced this challenge. Applied to contemporary problems in linguistic anthropology, chiasmus functions to highlight and enhance relationships of interdependence or symbiosis between contraries, including anthropology’s four fields, the nature of human being and facets of being human