Prethermalization after a sudden quench in a weakly interacting Bose system

We calculate the dynamics of local and non-local correlation functions of one and threedimensional weakly interacting Bose gas after an interaction quench. Within the Bogoliubov approximation we discuss the resulting quasi-steady prethermal state and relaxation to it. We discuss the deacay rates of Bogoliubov quasi-particles characterizing the expected departure from the prethermal state towards a fully thermalized one. We conclude that prethermalization in this situation manifest as a crossover

Predicción climática decadal global con el modelo EC-EARTH: avanzando hacia una predicción operativa en tiempo real [Presentación]

Presentación realizada en el VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción "Memorial Antonio Mestre", celebrado en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018

Oceanic forcing of Antarctic climate change: a study using a stretched-grid atmospheric general circulation model

A variable-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used for climate change projections over the Antarctic. The present-day simulation uses prescribed observed sea surface conditions, while a set of five simulations for the end of the twenty-first century (2070-99) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario uses sea surface condition anomalies from selected coupled ocean atmosphere climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Analysis of the results shows that the prescribed sea surface condition anomalies have a very strong influence on the simulated climate change on the Antarctic continent, largely dominating the direct effect of the prescribed greenhouse gas concentration changes in the AGCM simulations. Complementary simulations with idealized forcings confirm these results. An analysis of circulation changes using self-organizing maps shows that the simulated climate change on regional scales is not principally caused by shifts of the frequencies of the dominant circulation patterns, except for precipitation changes in some coastal regions. The study illustrates that in some respects the use of bias-corrected sea surface boundary conditions in climate projections with a variable-resolution atmospheric general circulation model has some distinct advantages over the use of limited-area atmospheric circulation models directly forced by generally biased coupled climate model output

Atmospheric drying as the main driver of dramatic glacier wastage in the southern Indian Ocean

This study was funded by IPEV-1048 GLACIOCLIM-KESAACO and LEFE-INSU KCRuMBLE programs, and the Agence Nationale de la Recherche through contract ANR-14-CE01-0001-01 (ASUMA).The ongoing retreat of glaciers at southern sub-polar latitudes is particularly rapid and widespread. Akin to northern sub-polar latitudes, this retreat is generally assumed to be linked to warming. However, no long-term and well-constrained glacier modeling has ever been performed to confirm this hypothesis. Here, we model the Cook Ice Cap mass balance on the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Indian Ocean, 49°S) since the 1850s. We show that glacier wastage during the 2000s in the Kerguelen was among the most dramatic on Earth. We attribute 77% of the increasingly negative mass balance since the 1960s to atmospheric drying associated with a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track. Because precipitation modeling is very challenging for the current generation of climate models over the study area, models incorrectly simulate the climate drivers behind the recent glacier wastage in the Kerguelen. This suggests that future glacier wastage projections should be considered cautiously where changes in atmospheric circulation are expected.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Predicción climática decadal global con el modelo EC-EARTH: avanzando hacia una predicción operativa en tiempo real

Ponencia presentada en: VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción, celebrado en los servicios centrales de AEMET, en Madrid, del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018.El departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra del Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (Barcelona Supercomputing Center; CNS-BSC) tiene una reconocida trayectoria en el campo de la predicción climática decadal, como atestigua su participación en los últimos dos intercambios de predicciones decadales multimodelo en tiempo real coordinadas por el MetOffice. En esta comunicación, presentaremos las próximas actividades del BSC en el contexto de CMIP6 (del inglés, Climate Model Intercomparison Project, 6th Phase) y que se engloban dentro de la iniciativa DCPP (del inglés, Decadal Climate Prediction Project). El BSC contribuirá con el modelo climático EC-Earth a la realización y análisis de la mayor parte de experimentos propuestos de «Tier 1», de los que destacamos: predicciones decadales retrospectivas por conjuntos desde 1960 hasta el presente; predicciones decadales en tiempo cuasi real inicializadas en 2018 y experimentos de sensibilidad para estudiar la predictibilidad, los mecanismos y los impactos climáticos asociados a las distintas fases de la AMV (del inglés, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability). También tenemos una larga experiencia con el modelo EC-Earth en predicción estacional, lo que nos permite testear y mejorar sistemáticamente nuestro sistema de predicción, así como desarrollar servicios climáticos específicos para fomentar la adaptación al cambio climático de sectores como la energía y la agricultura

Using EC-Earth for climate prediction research

Climate prediction at the subseasonal to interannual time range is now performed routinely and operationally by an increasing number of institutions. The feasibility of climate prediction largely depends on the existence of slow and predictable variations in the ocean surface temperature, sea ice, soil moisture and snow cover, and on our ability to model the atmosphere’s interactions with those variables. Climate prediction is typically performed with statistical-empirical or process-based models. The two methods are complementary. Although forecasting systems using global climate models (GCMs) have made substantial progress in the last few decades (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2013), systematic errors and misrepresentations of key processes still limit the value of dynamical prediction in certain areas of the globe. At the same time, model initialisation, ensemble generation, understanding the processes at the origin of predictability, forecasting extremes, bias adjustment and model evaluation are all challenging aspects of the climate prediction problem. Addressing them requires both a large base of researchers with expertise in physics, mathematics, statistics, high-performance computing and data analysis interested in climate prediction issues and a tool for them to work with. This article illustrates how one of these tools, the EC-Earth climate model (Box A), has been used to train scientists in climate prediction and to address scientific challenges in this field. The use of model components from ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in EC-Earth means that some of the results obtained with EC-Earth can feed back into ECMWF’s activities. EC-Earth has been run extensively on ECMWF’s high-performance computing facility (HPCF), among a range of HPCFs across Europe and North America. The availability of ECMWF’s HPCF to EC-Earth partners, including the use of the successful ECMWF Special Project programme, means that a substantial amount of EC-Earth’s collaborative work, both within the consortium and with ECMWF, takes place on this platform.Postprint (published version

Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5 °C

The Paris Agreement calls for efforts to limit anthropogenic global warming to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. However, natural internal variability may exacerbate anthropogenic warming to produce temporary excursions above 1.5 °C. Such excursions would not necessarily exceed the Paris Agreement, but would provide a warning that the threshold is being approached. Here we develop a new capability to predict the probability that global temperature will exceed 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels in the coming 5 years. For the period 2017 to 2021 we predict a 38% and 10% chance, respectively, of monthly or yearly temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C, with virtually no chance of the 5‐year mean being above the threshold. Our forecasts will be updated annually to provide policy makers with advanced warning of the evolving probability and duration of future warming events

A European project on incidence, treatment, and outcome of sarcoma

Abstract BACKGROUND: Sarcomas are rare tumors (1-2% of all cancers) of mesenchymal origin that may develop in soft tissues and viscera. Since the International Classification of Disease (ICD) attributes visceral sarcomas (VS) to the organ of origin, the incidence of sarcoma is grossly underestimated. The rarity of the disease and the variety of histological types (more than 70) or locations account for the difficulty in acquiring sufficient personal experience. In view of the above the European Commission funded the project called Connective Tissues Cancers Network (CONTICANET), to improve the prognosis of sarcoma patients by increasing the level of standardization of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures through a multicentre collaboration. METHODS/DESIGN: Two protocols of epidemiological researches are here presented. The first investigation aims to build the population-based incidence of sarcoma in a two-year period, using the new 2002 WHO classification and the "second opinion" given by an expert regional pathologist on the initial diagnosis by a local pathologist. A three to five year survival rate will also be determined. Pathology reports and clinical records will be the sources of information.The second study aims to compare the effects on survival or relapse-free period - allowing for histological subtypes, clinical stage, primary site, age and gender - when the disease was treated or not according to the clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). DISCUSSION: Within CONTICANET, each group was asked to design a particular study on a specific objective, the partners of the network being free to accept or not the proposed protocol. The first protocol was accepted by the other researchers, therefore the incidence of sarcoma will be assessed in three European regions, Rhone-Alpes and Aquitaine (France) and Veneto (Italy), where the geographic distribution of sarcoma will be compared after taking into account age and gender. The conformity of the clinical practice with the recommended guidelines will be investigated in a French (Rhone Alps) and Italian (Veneto) region since the CPGs were similar in both areas