Endeudamiento y riesgo: Un modelo del premio por riesgo de la deuda externa peruana en el siglo XIX

Editada en la Universidad Carlos IIIEste artículo desarrolla un modelo empírico de premio por riesgo para la deuda extena peruana del siglo XIX. El modelo relaciona el premio por riesgo a un conjunto de variables macroeconómicas de deuda total y liquidez. Explica el éxito del gobierno peruano en los mercados financieros británicos, el comportamiento de los tenedores de bonos respecto al riesgo y cómo interpretaban la cambiante situación macroeconómica mientras la deuda crecía cerca a la fecha del cese de pagos. El uso del método de componentes principales ayuda a evitar problemas de multicolinealidad así como permite extraer la mayor información de las diferentes variables agriadas.This article develops an empirical model of risk-premium for the Peruvian external debt of die nineteenth century. The model relates the risk-premium to a set of macroeconomic variables of total indebtedness and liquidity. It explains the success of the Peruvian government in the British financial market, the behaviour of the bondholders towards risk, and how they interpreted the changing macroeconomic data as the debt was growing, near the default date. The use of the Principal components method helps to avoid multicolinearity problems as well as extracting most of the information from die different aggregate variables.Publicad

Towards a synthesized critique of neoliberal biodiversity conservation

During the last three decades, the arena of biodiversity conservation has largely aligned itself with the globally dominant political ideology of neoliberalism and associated governmentalities. Schemes such as payments for ecological services are promoted to reach the multiple ‘wins’ so desired: improved biodiversity conservation, economic development, (international) cooperation and poverty alleviation, amongst others. While critical scholarship with respect to understanding the linkages between neoliberalism, capitalism and the environment has a long tradition, a synthesized critique of neoliberal conservation - the ideology (and related practices) that the salvation of nature requires capitalist expansion - remains lacking. This paper aims to provide such a critique. We commence with the assertion that there has been a conflation between ‘economics’ and neoliberal ideology in conservation thinking and implementation. As a result, we argue, it becomes easier to distinguish the main problems that neoliberal win-win models pose for biodiversity conservation. These are framed around three points: the stimulation of contradictions; appropriation and misrepresentation and the disciplining of dissent. Inspired by Bruno Latour’s recent ‘compositionist manifesto’, the conclusion outlines some ideas for moving beyond critique

A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy

Role of "external facilitation" in implementation of research findings: a qualitative evaluation of facilitation experiences in the Veterans Health Administration

BACKGROUND: Facilitation has been identified in the literature as a potentially key component of successful implementation. It has not, however, either been well-defined or well-studied. Significant questions remain about the operational definition of facilitation and about the relationship of facilitation to other interventions, especially to other change agent roles when used in multi-faceted implementation projects. Researchers who are part of the Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI) are actively exploring various approaches and processes, including facilitation, to enable implementation of best practices in the Veterans Health Administration health care system – the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States. This paper describes a systematic, retrospective evaluation of implementation-related facilitation experiences within QUERI, a quality improvement program developed by the US Department of Veterans Affairs. METHODS: A post-hoc evaluation was conducted through a series of semi-structured interviews to examine the concept of facilitation across several multi-site QUERI implementation studies. The interview process is based on a technique developed in the field of education, which systematically enhances learning through experience by stimulating recall and reflection regarding past complex activities. An iterative content analysis approach relative to a set of conceptually-based interview questions was used for data analysis. FINDINGS: Findings suggest that facilitation, within an implementation study initiated by a central change agency, is a deliberate and valued process of interactive problem solving and support that occurs in the context of a recognized need for improvement and a supportive interpersonal relationship. Facilitation was described primarily as a distinct role with a number of potentially crucial behaviors and activities. Data further suggest that external facilitators were likely to use or integrate other implementation interventions, while performing this problem-solving and supportive role. PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation provides evidence to suggest that facilitation could be considered a distinct implementation intervention, just as audit and feedback, educational outreach, or similar methods are considered to be discrete interventions. As such, facilitation should be well-defined and explicitly evaluated for its perceived usefulness within multi-intervention implementation projects. Additionally, researchers should better define the specific contribution of facilitation to the success of implementation in different types of projects, different types of sites, and with evidence and innovations of varying levels of strength and complexity

Measuring persistence of implementation: QUERI Series

As more quality improvement programs are implemented to achieve gains in performance, the need to evaluate their lasting effects has become increasingly evident. However, such long-term follow-up evaluations are scarce in healthcare implementation science, being largely relegated to the "need for further research" section of most project write-ups. This article explores the variety of conceptualizations of implementation sustainability, as well as behavioral and organizational factors that influence the maintenance of gains. It highlights the finer points of design considerations and draws on our own experiences with measuring sustainability, framed within the rich theoretical and empirical contributions of others. In addition, recommendations are made for designing sustainability analyses

Root turnover and productivity of coniferous forests

Fine roots and mycorrhizae have recently been shown to produce a major portion of the organic matter entering decomposition. Roots and mycorrhizae constitute 63 to 70% of total net primary production in Douglas-fir and Pacific silver fir stands. The importance of roots in primary production makes the method of root extraction from the soil important. Wet-sieving with small mesh screens is more effective than hand-sorting for fine roots and mycorrhizae. Screen size, the efficiency of recovery, the physiological status of the roots and coversion factors to derive biomass from the numbers of root tips should be stated. Published data is enhanced if the phenological status of the stand, its age, tree density, and soil texture are quoted.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43475/1/11104_2005_Article_BF02182643.pd