Heat Wave Intensity Duration Frequency Curve: A Multivariate Approach for Hazard and Attribution Analysis

Atmospheric warming is projected to intensify heat wave events, as quantified by multiple descriptors, including intensity, duration, and frequency. While most studies investigate one feature at a time, heat wave characteristics are often interdependent and ignoring the relationships between them can lead to substantial biases in frequency (hazard) analyses. We propose a multivariate approach to construct heat wave intensity, duration, frequency (HIDF) curves, which enables the concurrent analysis of all heat wave properties. Here we show how HIDF curves can be used in various locations to quantitatively describe the likelihood of heat waves with different intensities and durations. We then employ HIDF curves to attribute changes in heat waves to anthropogenic warming by comparing GCM simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions. For example, in Los Angeles, CA, HIDF analysis shows that we can attribute the 21% increase in the likelihood of a four-day heat wave (temperature \u3e 31 °C) to anthropogenic emissions

Process Compensated Resonance Testing Modeling for Damage Evolution and Uncertainty Quantification

Process Compensated Resonance Testing (PCRT) is a nondestructive evaluation method that measures and analyzes the resonance frequencies of a component for material state characterization, defect detection and process monitoring. PCRT inspections of gas turbine engine components have demonstrated the sensitivity of resonance frequencies to manufacturing defects and in-service thermal and mechanical damage. Prior work on PCRT modeling has developed forward modeling and model inversion techniques that simulate the effects of geometry variation, material property variation, and damage on Mar-M-247 nickel-based superalloy samples. Finite element method (FEM) forward model simulations predicted the effects of variation in geometry, material properties and damage on resonance frequencies. Model inversion used measured resonance frequencies to characterize the material state of components. Parallel work developed a process for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in PCRT models and measurements. The UQ process evaluated the propagation of uncertainty from various sources, identified the most significant uncertainty sources, and enabled uncertainty mitigation to improve model and measurement accuracy. Current efforts have expanded on those developments in several areas. One-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) forward model simulations were conducted on cylindrical dog bone coupons made from Mar-M-247. The simulations predicted the resonance frequency response to variation in geometry, elastic properties, crystallographic orientation, creep strain and cracking. The OFAT studies were followed by forward model Monte Carlo simulations that predicted the effects of multiple, concurrent sources of variation and damage on resonance frequencies, allowing characterization of virtual populations and quantification of uncertainty propagation. The Monte Carlo simulation design points were used to demonstrate the generation of a virtual database of components for training PCRT inspection applications, or “sorting modules.” Virtual database training sets can potentially overcome the limitations imposed by the availability of components and material states for training sets based on physical examples. Forward modeling tools and techniques were applied to titanium to simulate the effects of material variation, damage, and crystallographic texture. Forward modeling was also applied to more complex geometries, including a notional turbine blade, to demonstrate the application of modeling tools to shapes representative of gas turbine engine components. Model inversion tools and techniques have also advanced under the current effort. Prior inversion methods relied on iterative fitting to polynomial expressions for simple geometries and bulk material properties. Current efforts have demonstrated FEM-based model inversion which allows characterization of complex shapes and material states. FEM-based design spaces were generated, model inversion was carried out for surrogate modeled resonance spectra, and inversion performance was evaluated. Analysis of PCRT modeling results led to the development of automated resonance mode matching tools based on the calculation of modal assurance criteria (MAC) values, mode shape displacement metrics and Hungarian Algorithm sorting methods

Model-based Probe State Estimation and Crack Inverse Methods Addressing Eddy Current Probe Variability

Recent work on model-based inverse methods with eddy current inspections of surface breaking discontinuities has shown some sizing error due to variability in probes with the same design specifications [1]. This is an important challenge for model-based inversion crack sizing techniques, to be robust to the varying characteristics of eddy current probes found in the field [1-2]. In this paper, a model-based calibration process is introduced that estimates the state of the probe. First, a carefully designed surrogate model was built using VIC-3D® simulations covering the critical range of probe rotation angles, tilt in two directions, and probe offset (liftoff) for both tangential and longitudinal flaw orientations. Some approximations and numerical compromises in the model were made to represent tilt in two directions and reduce simulation time; however, this surrogate model was found to represent the key trends in the eddy current response for each of the four probe properties in experimental verification studies well. Next, this model was incorporated into an iterative inversion scheme during the calibration process, to estimate the probe state while also addressing the gain/phase fit and centering the calibration notch indication. Results are presented showing several examples of the blind estimation of tilt and rotation angle for known experimental cases with good agreement within +/- 2.5 degrees. The RMS error was found to be significantly reduced by fitting the probe state and, in many instances, probe state estimation addresses the previously un-modelled characteristics (model error) with real probe inversion studies. Additional studies are presented comparing the size of the calibration notch and the quality of the calibration fit, where calibrating with too small or too large a notch can produce poorer inversion results. Once the probe state is estimated, the final step is to transform the base crack inversion surrogate model and apply it for crack characterization. Because of the dimensionality of this problem, simulations were made at a limited set of select flaw sizes with varying length, depth and width, and an interpolation scheme was used to address the effect of the probe state at intermediate solution points. Using this process, results are presented demonstrating improved crack inversion performance for extreme probe states

Triggerable tough hydrogels for gastric resident dosage forms

Systems capable of residing for prolonged periods of time in the gastric cavity have transformed our ability to diagnose and treat patients. Gastric resident systems for drug delivery, ideally need to be: ingestible, be able to change shape or swell to ensure prolonged gastric residence, have the mechanical integrity to withstand the forces associated with gastrointestinal motility, be triggerable to address any side effects, and be drug loadable and release drug over a prolonged period of time. Materials that have been primarily utilized for these applications have been largely restricted to thermoplastics and thermosets. Here we describe a novel set of materials, triggerable tough hydrogels, meeting all these requirement, supported by evaluation in a large animal model and ultimately demonstrate the potential of triggerable tough hydrogels to serve as prolonged gastric resident drug depots. Triggerable tough hydrogels may be applied in myriad of applications, including bariatric interventions, drug delivery, and tissue engineering.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant OPP1096734)Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant OPP1139927)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant EB000244

Assessment of the Al–Fe–Ti system

The Al–Fe–Ti system has been assessed and the limiting binary systems are shortly reviewed. Based on a thorough review of the literature, isotherms at 800, 900, and 1000 °C have been re-evaluated and a provisional isotherm at 1200 °C is presented for the first time. The effect of alloying the binary phases with the third component is reviewed with regard to the ternary homogeneity ranges, crystallography, order/disorder transformations, and site occupancies. Of the variously reported ternary compounds only the existence of “Al2FeTi” (τ2) and “Al8FeTi3” (τ3) is confirmed. The occurrence of the phases τ2*, τ′2, and of a new stacking variant of TiAl is still under discussion, while the existence of the phases Fe2AlTi (τ1) and Fe25Al69Ti6 (X) is ruled out. The presented reaction scheme corroborates the isothermal sections and also a representation of the liquidus surface is given. Magnetic, electrical, thermochemical, atomistic and diffusion data for Al–Fe–Ti alloys are summarised and an overview about studies on modelling of phase equilibria and phase transformations is given

A Processable Mullite Precursor Prepared by Reacting Silica and Aluminum Hydroxide with Triethanolamine in Ethylene Glycol: Structural Evolution on Pyrolysis

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66300/1/j.1151-2916.1997.tb03162.x.pd

A New SiC-Whisker-Reinforced Lithium Aluminosilicate Composite

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65747/1/j.1151-2916.1993.tb04016.x.pd

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of the in situ Β-Si 3 N 4 /Α′-SiAlON Composite

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65911/1/j.1151-2916.1994.tb04604.x.pd

Processing Aluminum Nitride-Silicon Carbide Composites via Polymer Infiltration and Pyrolysis of Polymethylsilane, a Precursor to Stoichiometric Silicon Carbide

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65973/1/j.1151-2916.1999.tb01846.x.pd

Introduction to carbon dioxide sequestration–based cementitious construction materials

This chapter briefly reviews important issues that justify the importance of carbon dioxide sequestration. It includes carbon dioxide emissions and projections, global warming consequences namely extreme weather events, ocean acidification, sea level rise, economic losses, the increase of vector-borne illnesses, or even the revival of long dormant deadly bacteria and viruses. Comments about the Conference of parties are made with a special attention for the China situation. Comments are also made about the shortcomings of market-based instruments to try to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. A book outline is also included.(undefined)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio