Modeling Liberia’s Energy Economy: from the Margin to the Mainstream

能源消费对经济增长和发展的重要性要求一个更高的、可持续的能源转型决策来 支持。鉴于传统燃料成本和其对能源投资决策的承受力的不确定性，增强环境可 持续的新增长路径的必要性和填补利比里亚在相关领域研究的空白，目前的研究 将会提供一个解决以上问题的机会。 本论文通过比较四个国家：南非、加纳、尼日利亚和中国，力求达到以下目 标：（1）在把就业作为附加变量的情况下，建立利比里亚能源使用和输出的格 兰杰因果关系的模型；（2）估计利比里亚的制造技术，以了解和分析这个国家 目前的生产方法；（3）分解利比里亚的生产模型，以求出投入产出弹性和估计 替代的广度；（4）对可再生能源技术进行估值，以提供...The importance of energy consumption for growth and development calls for improved decision support for a sustainable energy transition. Given the uncertainty of traditional fuel costs and their bearing on energy investment decision planning as well as the need for new growth pathways that enhance environmental sustainability and the urgency to fill Liberia‘s devastating research gap, the current...学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院中国能源经济研究中心_能源经济学学号：3132011015416

Environmental policy and ‘double dividend’ in a transitional economy

Abstract(#br)Although the environmental benefit from implementing a climate tax is usually realized, the economic dividend still remains a controversial issue warranting further research. This is because the impact of an environmental policy on an economy-wide system will depend on factors that differ from one region to the next. In this paper, we develop a static CGE model for Liberia that is capable of analyzing both a uniform and a partial carbon tax policy. Under the uniform policy instituted to ensure mitigation in the range of 20–50%, an economic dividend is found for energy, employment, and welfare. In particular, energy consumption increases by between 5 and 15.5%, respectively. Interestingly, under a second best policy which exempts economically strategic sectors from the tax, no economic dividend is found for all three variables. This time, energy use declines by between 2 and 9%. These suggest that a uniform environmental tax policy is a more viable option for Liberia, in particular, as it does not only generate economic dividend for employment and welfare, it also incentivizes Liberia’s adoption and use of renewable energy technologies. In general, based on the results obtained, further conditions for the feasibility of a double dividend are proposed

Exchange rate volatility and south Africa's exports to China: an ardl bounds tests approach

本文主要研究外汇波动对南非出口到中国的贸易影响，实证分析基于Peseran（2001）等人所提出的协整ARDL边界检验理论。本文首先采用一系列短期汇率模型分析，然后利用模型选择准则来选择一个最优的模型分析南非对中国的汇率波动。本文的数据主要是月度和季度的南非出口贸易数据，月度数据从1992年1月到2010年7月，季度数据从1995年第1季度到2010年第3季度。我们发现，从总量水平来说，南非对中国贸易出口对收入缺乏弹性，对相对价格比较有弹性，并且短期汇率对其影响不大。但是，当我们采用分部门的出口贸易数据时，发现贸易出口对收入是有弹性的，出口与汇率波动有显著的联系，对有些部门是正的影响，有些部门...This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade in the context of South African exports to China by means of ARDL bounds testing procedure to cointegration developed by Pesaran, et al. (2001). Several alternative measures of short-term exchange rate risk were employed in which we selected for each equation, the ‘optimal’ ZAR/CYN volatility measure on the basis o...学位：经济学硕士院系专业：王亚南经济研究院_金融学(含保险学)学号：2772008115376

Policy Options to Attract Nurses to Rural Liberia : Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment

There is major geographic variation in nurse staffing levels in Liberia with the largest shortages in rural areas. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was used to test how nurses and certified midwives in Liberia would respond to alternative policies being considered by the ministry of health and social welfare (MOHSW). The DCE methodology provides a quantitative estimate of how individuals value different aspects of their job. In Liberia we focused on six key job attributes: location, total pay, conditions of equipment, availability of transportation, availability of housing, and workload. Results were used to predict the share of nurses and certified midwives who would accept a job in a rural area under different schemes. Based on the DCE analysis there are four main actionable recommendations that emerge for improving recruitment and retention of nurses and certified midwives in rural areas of Liberia. First, the MOHSW should consider actively recruiting students from rural areas and exposing them to rural work conditions during their training. Second, the MOHSW should strongly consider increasing pay levels in rural areas as this is likely to be cost effective. Third, if for some reason financial bonuses are not feasible, the MOHSW should consider providing transportation to nurses and certified midwives in rural areas. Fourth, the MOHSW should reconsider its housing strategy. Providing newly constructed housing is not a cost effective policy according to the DCE study

Causal independence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia: Evidence from a non-parametric bootstrapped causality test

a b s t r a c t This contribution investigates causal interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia and proposes application of a bootstrap methodology. To better reflect causality, employment is incorporated as additional variable. The study demonstrates evidence of distinct bidirectional Granger causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Additionally, the results show that employment in Liberia Granger causes economic growth and apply irrespective of the short-run or long-run. Evidence from a Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the asymptotic Granger causality test suffers size distortion problem for Liberian data, suggesting that the bootstrap technique employed in this study is more appropriate. Given the empirical results, implications are that energy expansion policies like energy subsidy or low energy tariff for instance, would be necessary to cope with demand exerted as a result of economic growth in Liberia. Furthermore, Liberia might have the performance of its employment generation on the economy partly determined by adequate energy. Therefore, it seems fully justified that a quick shift towards energy production based on clean energy sources may significantly slow down economic growth in Liberia. Hence, the government's target to implement a long-term strategy to make Liberia a carbon neutral country, and eventually less carbon dependent by 2050 is understandable

Causal Effects and Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Development in Liberia

Studies envisioned to inform on major policy issues are paramount for Liberia's economic recovery. Therefore, we employ an unrestricted vector autoregressive model to analyze the dynamic associations between exchange rate volatility (ERV) and Liberia's real gross domestic product (RGDP). The empirical results show no significant relationship between ERV and Liberia's RGDP in the short-run, but variance decomposition analysis reveals that innovations to Liberia's RGDP lead to fluctuations in ERV in the long-run. Hence, we recommend that Liberia's policymakers should exert stronger monetary policy control to ensure the existence of single currency regime in the long-run. Also, technological innovation is required to boost domestic production in order to offset the negative effect of ERV on trade. Keywords: Economic growth; exchange rate volatility; Liberia; unrestricted VAR model JEL Classifications: E31, E32, E5

Asymmetric and Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from a Panel of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

Researches intended to influence key decisions on energy policy are paramount for ECOWAS's development agenda. Therefore, we employ fixed effect model to examine the impacts of oil price shocks and exchange rate volatility on real GDP in the ECOWAS countries. For each oil price shock, three equations are estimated: the sample of all ECOWAS countries and the samples with net-oil exporters and net-oil importers. The empirical results provide evidences of both linear and asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on real GDP for the full ECOWAS sample and for the net-oil importers. Additionally, there are evidences that exchange rate volatility negatively and significantly influence real GDP of the full ECOWAS sample and the net-oil importers. Therefore, we recommend the implementation of economic diversification policy away from oil reliance toward dependence on other energy types, and implementation of monetary policies to stabilize volatile exchange rate regime in oil-importing ECOWAS countries. Keywords: Asymmetry; ECOWAS countries; exchange rate volatility and oil price shocks JEL Classifications: C33, F31, C5, E

The status of health services in the 15 counties of Liberia

Aim: Liberia, situated at the West African coast, is composed of 15 counties with an economic gradient steeply decreasing from the Northwest to the Southeast. Health-related activities by government action in the 15 counties concentrate on the areas of family planning, antenatal and delivery care, as well as immunization, health workforce and infrastructure. The differences in this regard between the 15 Liberian counties will be reviewed. Methods: A narrative review is employed, making use of the recent international and national documents, relevant literature and available information from the following primary and secondary sources and databases. Results: The results point to gross differences between the 15 counties of Liberia in terms of health service provision. The overall readiness based on defined indicators for all 701 facilities was 59% with a range between facilities at the level of counties of 50% to 65%; for family planning services 88% (range 65% – 100%); for antenatal care 62% (range 55% – 100%); for immunization coverage 76% (range 66% – 86%). The health workforce of Liberia comprises 11.8 health workers per 10.000 population, WHO target is 23, the counties range from 8.0 to 15.7. Similarly, according to WHO standards, there should be 2 health facilities per 10.000 inhabitants, Liberia comes up to 1.9 however the counties range from 1.1 – 3.0 per 10.000. Conclusions: It is obvious that across almost all areas of women and child health and health services in general there exist large differences between counties, which points to considerable health inequities in this country. The government of Liberia should consider reallocating the available resources per number of population instead of accepting historical developments, however with a correction factor in favou of disadvantaged regions and population groups

Liberia health system's journey to long-term recovery and resilience post-Ebola: a case study of an exemplary multi-year collaboration

This article is part of the Research Topic ‘Health Systems Recovery in the Context of COVID-19 and Protracted Conflict'Liberia is one of the three countries worst hit by the 2014–2016 West Africa Ebola Virus disease (EVD) outbreak, during which it recorded over 10,000 cases, including health workers. Estimates suggest that the non-EVD morbidity and mortality resulting from the collapse of the health system exceeded the direct impact of EVD. Lessons from the outbreak were clear, not only for Liberia but also for the regional and global communities: that building health system resilience through an integrated approach is an investment in population health and wellbeing, as well as economic security and national development. It is therefore no surprise that Liberia made recovery and resilience a national priority from the time the outbreak waned in 2015. The recovery agenda provided the platform for stakeholders to work toward the restoration of the pre-outbreak baseline of health system functions while aiming to build a higher level of resilience, informed by lessons from the Ebola crises. Based on the co-authors' experiences of on-the-ground country-support work, this study sought to provide an overview of the Liberia Health Service Resilience project (2018–2023) funded by KOICA, and propose a set of recommendations for national authorities and donors, derived from the authors' perceptions of best practices and key challenges associated with the project. We used both quantitative and qualitative approaches to generate the data represented in this study by reviewing published and unpublished technical and operational documents, and datasets derived through situational and needs assessments and routine monitoring and evaluation activities. This project has contributed to the implementation of the Liberia Investment Plan for Building a Resilient Health System and the successful response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Liberia. Although limited in scope, the Health Service Resilience project has demonstrated that health system resilience could be operationalized by applying a catchment and integrated approach and encouraging multi-sectoral collaboration, partnership, local ownership, and promoting the Primary Health Care approach. Principles applied in this pilot could guide the operationalization of health system resilience efforts in other resource-limited settings similar to Liberia and beyond