Realising transition pathways for a more electric, low-carbon energy system in the United Kingdom: challenges, insights and opportunities

The United Kingdom has placed itself on a transition towards a low-carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, socio-technical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers; each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy ‘trilemma,’ i.e. the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility,social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system ‘actors’ (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in demand side response for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and technoeconomic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the greenhouse gas emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here, the challenges, insights and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the United Kingdom are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers and other stakeholders

Knowledge-based design of bimodular and trimodular polyketide synthases based on domain and module swaps: a route to simple statin analogues

AbstractBackground: Polyketides are structurally diverse natural products that have a range of medically useful activities. Nonaromatic bacterial polyketides are synthesised on modular polyketide synthase (PKS) multienzymes, in which each cycle of chain extension requires a different ‘module’ of enzymatic activities. Attempts to design and construct modular PKSs that synthesise specified novel polyketides provide a particularly stringent test of our understanding of PKS structure and function.Results: We have constructed bimodular and trimodular PKSs based on DEBS1-TE, a derivative of the erythromycin PKS that contains only modules 1 and 2 and a thioesterase (TE), by substituting multiple domains with appropriate counterparts derived from the rapamycin PKS. Hybrid PKSs were obtained that synthesised the predicted target triketide lactones, which are simple analogues of cholesterol-lowering statins. In constructing intermodular fusions, whether between modules in the same or in different proteins, it was found advantageous to preserve intact the acyl carrier protein-ketosynthase (ACP-KS) didomain that spans the junction between successive modules.Conclusions: Relatively simple considerations govern the construction of functional hybrid PKSs. Fusion sites should be chosen either in the surface-accessible linker regions between enzymatic domains, as previously revealed, or just inside the conserved margins of domains. The interaction of an ACP domain with the adjacent KS domain, whether on the same polyketide or not, is of particular importance, both through conservation of appropriate protein-protein interactions, and through optimising molecular recognition of the altered polyketide chain in the key transfer of the acyl chain from the ACP of one module to the KS of the downstream module

London and beyond: essays in honour of Derek Keene

This volume contains selected papers from a major conference held in October 2008 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the setting up of the Centre for Metropolitan History at the IHR, and the contribution of Professor Derek Keene to the Centre, the IHR and the wider world of scholarship. 'One of the pioneer volumes in the handsomely produced new Institute of Historical Research Conference series, this book serves as a fitting tribute to one of the most influential urban historians of our time.' - Ian Archer, Urban History, May 2013

Validation of methods to identify people with idiopathic inflammatory myopathies using hospital episode statistics

ObjectiveHospital episode statistics (HES) are routinely recorded at every hospital admission within the National Health Service (NHS) in England. This study validates diagnostic ICD-10 codes within HES as a method of identifying cases of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs).MethodsAll inpatient admissions at one NHS Trust between 2010 and 2020 with relevant diagnostic ICD-10 codes were extracted from HES. Hospital databases were used to identify all outpatients with IIM, and electronic care records were reviewed to confirm coding accuracy. Total hospital admissions were calculated from NHS Digital reports. The sensitivity and specificity of each code and code combinations were calculated to develop an optimal algorithm. The optimal algorithm was tested in a sample of admissions at another NHS Trust.ResultsOf the 672 individuals identified by HES, 510 were confirmed to have IIM. Overall, the positive predictive value (PPV) was 76% and sensitivity 89%. Combination algorithms achieved PPVs between 89 and 94%. HES can also predict the presence of IIM-associated interstitial lung disease (ILD) with a PPV of 79% and sensitivity of 71%. The optimal algorithm excluded children (except JDM code M33.0), combined M33.0, M33.1, M33.9, M36.0, G72.4, M60.8 and M33.2, and included M60.9 only if it occurred alongside an ILD code (J84.1, J84.9 or J99.1). This produced a PPV of 88.9% and sensitivity of 84.2%. Retesting this algorithm at another NHS Trust confirmed a high PPV (94.4%).ConclusionIIM ICD-10 code combinations in HES have high PPVs and sensitivities. Algorithms tested in this study could be applied across all NHS Trusts to enable robust and cost-effective whole-population research into the epidemiology of IIM

Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: an iterative approach

Energy system transition research has been experimenting with the integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis due to the increased articulation it provides. Current approaches tend to be heavily biased by qualitative or quantitative methodologies, and more often are aimed toward a single academic discipline. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary methodology for the elaboration of energy system socio-technical scenarios, applied here to the low carbon transition of the UK. An iterative approach was used to produce quantitative descriptions of the UK's energy transition out to 2050, building on qualitative storylines or narratives that had been developed through the formal application of a transition pathways approach. The combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis in this way subsequently formed the cornerstone of wider interdisciplinary research, helping to harmonise assumptions, and facilitating ‘whole systems’ thinking. The methodology pulls on niche expertise of contributors to map and investigate the governance and technological landscape of a system change. Initial inconsistencies were found between energy supply and demand and addressed, the treatment of gas generation, capacity factors, total installed generating capacity and installation rates of renewables employed. Knowledge gaps relating to the operation of combined heat and power, sources of waste heat and future fuel sources were also investigated. Adopting the methodological approach to integrate qualitative and quantitative analysis resulted in a far more comprehensive elaboration than previously, providing a stronger basis for wider research, and for deducing more robust insights for decision-making. It is asserted that this formal process helps build robust future scenarios not only for socio political storylines but also for the quantification of any qualitative storyline

Supporting stimulation needs in dementia care through wall-sized displays

Beside reminiscing, the increasing cognitive decline in dementia can also be addressed through sensory stimulation allowing the immediate, nonverbal engagement with the world through one’s senses. Much HCI work has prioritized cognitive stimulation for reminiscing or personhood often on small screens, while less research has explored sensory stimulation like the one enabled by large displays. We describe a year-long deployment in a residential care home of a wall-sized display, and explored its domestication through 24 contextual interviews. Findings indicate strong engagement and attachment to the display which has inspired four psychosocial interventions using online generic content. We discuss the value of these findings for personhood through residents’ exercise of choices, the tension between generic/personal content and its public/private use, the importance of participatory research approach to domestication, and the infrastructure-based prototype, illustrated by the DementiaWall and its generative quality

Widespread drying of European peatlands in recent centuries

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record Climate warming and human impacts are thought to be causing peatlands to dry,potentially converting them from sinks to sources of carbon. However, it is unclear whether the hydrological status of peatlands has moved beyond their natural envelope. Here we show that European peatlands have undergone substantial, widespread drying during the last ~300 years. We analyse testate amoeba-derived hydrological reconstructions from 31 peatlands across Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia and continental Europe to examine changes in peatland surface wetness during the last 2000 years. 60% of our study sites were drier during the period CE 1800-2000 than they have been for the last 600 years; 40% of sites were drier than they have been for 1000 years; and 24% of sites were drier than they have been for 2000 years. This marked recent transition in the hydrology of European peatlands is concurrent with compound pressures including climatic drying, warming and direct human impacts on peatlands, although these factors vary between regions and individual sites. Our results suggest that the wetness of many European peatlands may now be moving away from natural baselines. Our findings highlight the need for effective management and restoration of European peatlands.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Climate drives the geography of marine consumption by changing predator communities

Este artículo contiene 7 páginas, 3 figuras, 1 tabla.The global distribution of primary production and consumption by humans (fisheries) is well-documented, but we have no map linking the central ecological process of consumption within food webs to temperature and other ecological drivers. Using standardized assays that span 105° of latitude on four continents, we show that rates of bait consumption by generalist predators in shallow marine ecosystems are tightly linked to both temperature and the composition of consumer assemblages. Unexpectedly, rates of consumption peaked at midlatitudes (25 to 35°) in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres across both seagrass and unvegetated sediment habitats. This pattern contrasts with terrestrial systems, where biotic interactions reportedly weaken away from the equator, but it parallels an emerging pattern of a subtropical peak in marine biodiversity. The higher consumption at midlatitudes was closely related to the type of consumers present, which explained rates of consumption better than consumer density, biomass, species diversity, or habitat. Indeed, the apparent effect of temperature on consumption was mostly driven by temperature-associated turnover in consumer community composition. Our findings reinforce the key influence of climate warming on altered species composition and highlight its implications for the functioning of Earth’s ecosystems.We acknowledge funding from the Smithsonian Institution and the Tula Foundation.Peer reviewe

RA-MAP, molecular immunological landscapes in early rheumatoid arthritis and healthy vaccine recipients

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disorder with poorly defined aetiology characterised by synovial inflammation with variable disease severity and drug responsiveness. To investigate the peripheral blood immune cell landscape of early, drug naive RA, we performed comprehensive clinical and molecular profiling of 267 RA patients and 52 healthy vaccine recipients for up to 18 months to establish a high quality sample biobank including plasma, serum, peripheral blood cells, urine, genomic DNA, RNA from whole blood, lymphocyte and monocyte subsets. We have performed extensive multi-omic immune phenotyping, including genomic, metabolomic, proteomic, transcriptomic and autoantibody profiling. We anticipate that these detailed clinical and molecular data will serve as a fundamental resource offering insights into immune-mediated disease pathogenesis, progression and therapeutic response, ultimately contributing to the development and application of targeted therapies for RA.</p