Initial Conditions, European Colonialism and Africa's Growth

We investigate the role of initial conditions at colonial independence on economic growth in Africa in the post-independence period using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). A key innovation in our estimation methodology is that we incorporate parameter heterogeneity in model averaging as well as try to mitigate the endogeneity problem present in growth regressions. In order to ensure that differences in the growth determinants between Africa and the world are not driven by experiences of an alternative group of countries, we also control for the presence of OECD countries and former European colonies in the global sample. We find that the impact of different initial conditions on growth in Africa is strikingly different from the world. We argue that these initial conditions reflect the state of development at the close of the colonial era and are therefore inherently related with the legacy of colonialism.

Empirical analysis of economic growth

International evidence on growth rates in per capita incomes reveals persistent differences in development patterns among nations, and shows that the world distribution of per capita income is multi-modal with several basins of attraction. This dissertation investigates the factors underlying these international variations in both the level and rate of growth of per capita incomes. The first essay examines whether nonlinearities in the aggregate production function can explain parameter heterogeneity in the Solow (1956) growth regressions. The choice of and alternative specification of the production function is justified by showing that cross-country level regressions are more consistent with the more general Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) than the Cobb-Douglas technology which currently underlies the Solow model. Then, by using an endogenous threshold methodology, we find that the Solow model, using the nonlinear CES technology, implies more robust parameter heterogeneity that is consistent with the existence of multiple regimes. The second essay uses Bayesian Model Averaging methodology to ascertain whether the determinants of economic growth are the same in Africa as elsewhere. Specifically, we estimate the posterior probability of a number of possible explanatory variables and potential cross-country regression models. We find that in both the short and long run, determinants of growth in Africa are different from the rest of the world. In addition, our findings suggest that in contrast to the rest of the world, initial conditions are more important in explaining African growth than policy and institutional variables. The third essay investigates the role of initial conditions as threshold variables in economic development. Using the endogenous threshold methodology we test whether initial stocks of human capital, initial level of economic development and natural conditions do affect long run growth in per capita incomes. We get two interesting results. First, initial stocks of human capital and the initial level of economic development have lasting effects on long run growth in per capita incomes. Second, initial conditions reflecting natural conditions have no lasting effect on economic growth

Education Sector Foreign Aid and Economic Growth in Africa

This paper explores whether education sector foreign aid influences economic growth in Africa based on a panel of 32 countries over the period 2005 – 2017. The major novelty of the study is that on the supply side the major dependent variable, education aid flows, are disaggregated by education level. On the demand side, the recipient economies are accorded their income groups to account for capacities that complement the effects of human capital development on economic growth as well as the benevolent complementary or destabilizing effects of different political systems of government. The key findings are that: (i) education aid in aggregate form and primary education aid both enhance economic growth in low income countries; (ii) in middle income countries higher education aid is more important for economic growth than primary and secondary education foreign aid; (iii) democracies have a stronger tendency to allocate more education sector foreign aid to primary education, while in autocracies the orientation is towards higher education. The findings imply that low-income autocracies that allocate more education sector foreign aid to higher education than to primary education do so at the expense of economic growth. The same applies to middle-income democracies whose allocation orientation is more towards primary education compared to higher education

Assessing the potential of syn-rift sediments for geochronological dating and its implications for the development of Makanjira-Shire basin in south Malawi Rift

The Upper Shire River basin, located within the zone of progressive interaction and linkage between the southern Malawi Rift and Shire Rift Zone, East Africa, presents an early-stage rift setting where rapid denudation processes take place and have profound influence on the geomorphological evolution of the region. The basin is key to the understanding of mechanisms involved in propagation and growthin young rifts. Although the tectonics in the region are well studied, lack of age constraints due to well-dated strata poses challenges in the understanding of the timing and mechanisms of rift evolution in this section of the south Malawi Rift. We used syn-rift sediments deposited from the rift shoulders to test the applicability of OSL and radiocarbon dating techniques in a poorly dated data-constrained region of the Malawi Rift. Our results suggest that proper sampling strategy is paramount in using the OSL technique for dating in areas of high dosage such as the one under consideration. However, the technique offers potential for use in these areas. Furthermore, we conclude from these findings that the evolution of the Upper Shire basin was triggered by tectonic movements along the Makongwa scrap that were responsible for redirecting the Likwenu River into the in the Zomba Graben through the Upper Shire at least during the Upper Pleistocene.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The resource curse revisited: A Bayesian model averaging approach

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. The evidence for the effects of oil rents on growth is mixed, a result which can be explained with model uncertainty. We address the issue using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques and an updated cross-country data set for long-term growth in the period 1970–2014, including 91 countries and 54 potential growth determinants. We do not find empirical evidence for the existence of a “natural resource curse” in our sample. On the contrary, our results suggest a robust positive effect of oil rents on long-term economic growth. We then introduce interaction terms of oil rents with potential conditions under which oil dependency can lead to sub-standard growth. The results indicate that the positive effect of oil rents may be conditional on the quality of institutions. We test the robustness of our results using a panel data set and find neither a curse nor a positive effect of oil rents on short- to medium-run growth

Testing for country heterogeneity in growth models using a finite mixture approach

We define a bivariate mixture model to test whether economic growth can be considered exogenous in the Solovian sense. For this purpose, the multivariate mixture approach proposed by Alfo and Trovato is applied to the Bernanke and Gurkaynak extension of the Solow model. We find that the explanatory power of the Solow growth model is enhanced, since growth rates are not statistically significantly associated with investment rates, when cross-country heterogeneity is considered. Moreover, no sign of convergence to a single equilibrium is foun

Productivity effects of public capital maintenance: Evidence from U.S. states

This article assesses the productivity effects of infrastructure operation and maintenance (O&M) spending by state and local governments in the 48 contiguous U.S. states over the period 1978-2000. We explicitly account for transboundary spillovers of capital and O&M spending and follow a semiparametric methodology that allows us to estimate state-specific output elasticities. We find strong evidence that in all 48 states the cross-state spillover effects of O&M outlays on productivity exceed their within-state impacts and are substantially higher than the spillover effects of capital expenditure. (JEL C14, E22, E62, H76, O11, O47, R11)

Factors influencing the experience of sexual and reproductive healthcare for female adolescents with perinatally-acquired HIV: a qualitative case study

Background: Young people living with perinatally-acquired HIV require age-appropriate support regarding sex and relationships as they progress towards adulthood. HIV affects both genders but evidence suggests that young women are particularly vulnerable to sexual abuse and more prone to engaging in sexual behaviours to meet their daily survival needs. This can result in poor sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes. HIV services in Malawi provide support for young women’s HIV-related clinical needs, but it is unclear whether there is sufficient provision for their SRH needs as they become adults. This paper explores the sex and relationship experiences of young women growing up with perinatally-acquired HIV in order to understand how to improve SRH care and associated outcomes. Methods: A qualitative case study approach was adopted in which each ‘case’ comprised a young woman (15–19 years) with perinatally acquired HIV, a nominated caregiver and service provider. Participants were purposively selected from three multidisciplinary centres providing specialised paediatric/adolescent HIV care in Malawi. Data was collected for 14 cases through in-depth interviews (i.e. a total of 42 participants) and analysed using within-case and cross-case approaches. The interviews with adolescents were based on an innovative visual method known as ‘my story book’ which encouraged open discussion on sensitive topics. Results: Young women reported becoming sexually active at an early age for different reasons. Some sought a sense of intimacy, love, acceptance and belonging in these relationships, noting that they lacked this at home and/or within their peer groups. For others, their sexual activity was more functional – related to meeting survival needs. Young women reported having little control over negotiating safer sex or contraception. Their priority was preventing unwanted pregnancies yet several of the sample already had babies, and transfer to antenatal services created major disruptions in their HIV care. In contrast, caregivers and nurses regarded sexual activity from a clinical perspective, fearing onward transmission of HIV and advocating abstinence or condoms where possible. In addition, a cultural silence rooted in dominant religious and traditional norms closed down possibilities for discussion about sexual matters and prevented young women from accessing contraception. Conclusion: The study has shown how young women, caregivers and service providers have contrasting perspectives and priorities around SRH care. Illumination of these differences highlights a need for service improvement. It is suggested that young women themselves are involved in future service improvement initiatives to encourage the development of culturally and socially acceptable pathways of care