Insuring Against Past Perils:The Politics of Post-Currency Crisis Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation

In the aftermath of financial crises, governments can use economic policy to minimize the risk of future recurrence. Yet not all do so. To explain this divergence in responses I develop a theory of economic policy choice after financial crises. I argue that past financial crises provide information to future governments about the political costs of financial crises. This subsequently informs the need to use economic policy to insure against such crises. Focusing on the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves after currency crises, I find that when past currency crises led to political changes future governments accumulate higher levels of reserves to prevent another crisis from occurring. This effect is stronger when political change occurred in situations where governments would not expect to be held accountable, and when reserve sales were shown to be effective in preventing political change. The theory and empirical results provide an answer as to why countries experiencing a similar form of financial crisis can, nevertheless, vary in their attempts to prevent future recurrence

Thermodynamic perturbation theory for associating fluids with small bond angles: Effects of steric hindrance, ring formation, and double bonding

We develop a comprehensive approach to model associating fluids with small bond angles using Wertheim's perturbation theory. We show theoretically and through Monte Carlo simulations that as bond angle is varied various modes of association become dominant. The theory is shown to be in excellent agreement with Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of the internal energy, pressure, and fractions in rings and chains, double bonded over the full range of bond angles

Blackbody Radiation and the Scaling Symmetry of Relativistic Classical Electron Theory with Classical Electromagnetic Zero-Point Radiation

It is pointed out that relativistic classical electron theory with classical electromagnetic zero-point radiation has a scaling symmetry which is suitable for understanding the equilibrium behavior of classical thermal radiation at a spectrum other than the Rayleigh-Jeans spectrum. In relativistic classical electron theory, the masses of the particles are the only scale-giving parameters associated with mechanics while the action-angle variables are scale invariant. The theory thus separates the interaction of the action variables of matter and radiation from the scale-giving parameters. Classical zero-point radiation is invariant under scattering by the charged particles of relativistic classical electron theory. The basic ideas of the matter -radiation interaction are illustrated in a simple relativistic classical electromagnetic example.Comment: 18 page

Nonlocality of Hardy type in experiments using independent particle sources

By applying Hardy's argument, we demonstrate the violation of local realism in a gedanken experiment using independent and separated particle sources.Comment: 9 pages, 1 fig, revtex, title change

The external benefits of higher education

The private market benefits of education are widely studied at the micro level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education, which are less well understood. In this paper the macroeconomic effects of external benefits of higher education are estimated using the “micro-to-macro” simulation approach. Two types of externalities are explored: technology spillovers and productivity spillovers in the labour market. These links are illustrated and the results suggest they could be very large. However, this is qualified by the dearth of microeconomic evidence, for which we hope to encourage further work

One- and two-body decomposable Poisson-Boltzmann methods for protein design calculations

Successfully modeling electrostatic interactions is one of the key factors required for the computational design of proteins with desired physical, chemical, and biological properties. In this paper, we present formulations of the finite difference Poisson-Boltzmann (FDPB) model that are pairwise decomposable by side chain. These methods use reduced representations of the protein structure based on the backbone and one or two side chains in order to approximate the dielectric environment in and around the protein. For the desolvation of polar side chains, the two-body model has a 0.64 kcal/mol RMSD compared to FDPB calculations performed using the full representation of the protein structure. Screened Coulombic interaction energies between side chains are approximated with an RMSD of 0.13 kcal/mol. The methods presented here are compatible with the computational demands of protein design calculations and produce energies that are very similar to the results of traditional FDPB calculations

The Lantern Vol. 14, No. 3, June 1946

• Girl on the Park Bench • To a God Unknown • Atomic Concept • To a Swan • Mimi and Me • Conversation Between Thought & Mind • The Prices These Days! • The Magic Pebbles • Awe at the Beauty of Spring • Faith of the Hungry • Huey Fallow • Sketches • Narcissahttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/lantern/1039/thumbnail.jp

A within farm clinical trial to compare two treatments (parenteral antibacterials and hoof trimming) for sheep lame with footrot

From observational studies, farmers who use parenteral antibacterials to promptly treat all sheep with footrot (FR) or interdigital dermatitis (ID) have a prevalence of lameness of <2% compared with a prevalence of 9% lameness reported by farmers who treat lame sheep by trimming affected feet. We tested the hypothesis that prompt treatment of sheep lame with naturally developing FR or ID with parenteral and topical antibacterials reduces the prevalence and incidence of lameness with these conditions compared with less frequent treatment with trimming of hoof horn and applying topical antibacterials. A further hypothesis was that reduction of ID and FR would improve productivity. A lowland sheep flock with 700 ewes was used to test these hypotheses in an 18-month within farm clinical trial with four groups of ewes: two intervention and two control. The duration and severity of lameness was used to categorise sheep into three weighted scores of lameness (WLS): never lame (WLS0), mildly lame/lame for <6 days (WLS1) and severely or chronically lame (WLS2). The intervention reduced the prevalence of lameness due to FR and ID in ewes and lambs and the incidence of lameness in ewes. The WLS was also significantly lower in sheep in the intervention groups. Ewes with a higher WLS were subsequently significantly more likely to have a body condition score <2.5 and to have lame lambs. Significantly more ewes lambed and successfully reared more lambs that were ready for slaughter at a younger age in the intervention versus control groups. There was an increase in the gross margin of £630/100 ewes mated in the intervention group, including the cost of treatment of £150/100 ewes mated. We conclude that prompt parenteral and topical antibacterial treatment of sheep lame with ID and FR reduced the prevalence and incidence of these infectious conditions and led to improved health, welfare and productivity

Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors

Meaningful quantification of data and structural uncertainties in conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling is a major scientific and engineering challenge. This paper focuses on the total predictive uncertainty and its decomposition into input and structural components under different inference scenarios. Several Bayesian inference schemes are investigated, differing in the treatment of rainfall and structural uncertainties, and in the precision of the priors describing rainfall uncertainty. Compared with traditional lumped additive error approaches, the quantification of the total predictive uncertainty in the runoff is improved when rainfall and/or structural errors are characterized explicitly. However, the decomposition of the total uncertainty into individual sources is more challenging. In particular, poor identifiability may arise when the inference scheme represents rainfall and structural errors using separate probabilistic models. The inference becomes ill‐posed unless sufficiently precise prior knowledge of data uncertainty is supplied; this ill‐posedness can often be detected from the behavior of the Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Moreover, the priors on the data quality must also be sufficiently accurate if the inference is to be reliable and support meaningful uncertainty decomposition. Our findings highlight the inherent limitations of inferring inaccurate hydrologic models using rainfall‐runoff data with large unknown errors. Bayesian total error analysis can overcome these problems using independent prior information. The need for deriving independent descriptions of the uncertainties in the input and output data is clearly demonstrated.Benjamin Renard, Dmitri Kavetski, George Kuczera, Mark Thyer, and Stewart W. Frank