Let's Train More Theoretical Ecologists - Here Is Why

A tangled web of vicious circles, driven by cultural issues, has prevented ecology from growing strong theoretical roots. Now this hinders development of effective conservation policies. To overcome these barriers in view of urgent societal needs, we propose a global network of postgraduate theoretical training programs

Survival of the Systems

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from cell Press via the DOI in this recordSince Darwin, individuals and more recently genes have been the focus of evolutionary thinking. The idea that selection operates on non-reproducing, higher-level systems including ecosystems or societies has met with scepticism. But research emphasising that natural selection can be based solely on differential persistence invites reconsideration of their evolution. Self-perpetuating feedback cycles involving biotic as well as abiotic components are critical to determining persistence. Evolution of autocatalytic networks of molecules is well studied, but the principles hold for any ‘self-perpetuating’ system. Ecosystem examples include coral reefs, rainforests and savannahs. Societal examples include agricultural systems, dominant belief systems and economies. Persistence-based selection of feedbacks can help us understand how ecological and societal systems survive or fail in a changing world

Scaling Dynamic Response and Destructive Metabolism in an Immunosurveillant Anti-Tumor System Modulated by Different External Periodic Interventions

On the basis of two universal power-law scaling laws, i.e. the scaling dynamic hysteresis in physics and the allometric scaling metabolism in biosystem, we studied the dynamic response and the evolution of an immunosurveillant anti-tumor system subjected to a periodic external intervention, which is equivalent to the scheme of a radiotherapy or chemotherapy, within the framework of the growth dynamics of tumor. Under the modulation of either an abrupt or a gradual change external intervention, the population density of tumors exhibits a dynamic hysteresis to the intervention. The area of dynamic hysteresis loop characterizes a sort of dissipative-therapeutic relationship of the dynamic responding of treated tumors with the dose consumption of accumulated external intervention per cycle of therapy. Scaling the area of dynamic hysteresis loops against the intensity of an external intervention, we deduced a characteristic quantity which was defined as the theoretical therapeutic effectiveness of treated tumor and related with the destructive metabolism of tumor under treatment. The calculated dose-effectiveness profiles, namely the dose cumulant per cycle of intervention versus the therapeutic effectiveness, could be well scaled into a universal quadratic formula regardless of either an abrupt or a gradual change intervention involved. We present a new concept, i.e., the therapy-effect matrix and the dose cumulant matrix, to expound the new finding observed in the growth and regression dynamics of a modulated anti-tumor system

30% land conservation and climate action reduces tropical extinction risk by more than 50%

Limiting climate change to less than 2°C is the focus of international policy under the climate convention (UNFCCC), and is essential to preventing extinctions, a focus of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). The post‐2020 biodiversity framework drafted by the CBD proposes conserving 30% of both land and oceans by 2030. However, the combined impact on extinction risk of species from limiting climate change and increasing the extent of protected and conserved areas has not been assessed. Here we create conservation spatial plans to minimize extinction risk in the tropics using data on 289 219 species and modeling two future greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) while varying the extent of terrestrial protected land and conserved areas from <17% to 50%. We find that limiting climate change to 2°C and conserving 30% of terrestrial area could more than halve aggregate extinction risk compared with uncontrolled climate change and no increase in conserved area

A pilot Internet "Value of Health" Panel: recruitment, participation and compliance

Objectives To pilot using a panel of members of the public to provide preference data via the Internet Methods A stratified random sample of members of the general public was recruited and familiarised with the standard gamble procedure using an Internet based tool. Health states were perdiodically presented in "sets" corresponding to different conditions, during the study. The following were described: Recruitment (proportion of people approached who were trained); Participation (a) the proportion of people trained who provided any preferences and (b) the proportion of panel members who contributed to each "set" of values; and Compliance (the proportion, per participant, of preference tasks which were completed). The influence of covariates on these outcomes was investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results A panel of 112 people was recruited. 23% of those approached (n = 5,320) responded to the invitation, and 24% of respondents (n = 1,215) were willing to participate (net = 5.5%). However, eventual recruitment rates, following training, were low (2.1% of those approached). Recruitment from areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities was low. Eighteen sets of health state descriptions were considered over 14 months. 74% of panel members carried out at least one valuation task. People from areas of higher socioeconomic deprivation and unmarried people were less likely to participate. An average of 41% of panel members expressed preferences on each set of descriptions. Compliance ranged from 3% to 100%. Conclusion It is feasible to establish a panel of members of the general public to express preferences on a wide range of health state descriptions using the Internet, although differential recruitment and attrition are important challenges. Particular attention to recruitment and retention in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities is necessary. Nevertheless, the panel approach to preference measurement using the Internet offers the potential to provide specific utility data in a responsive manner for use in economic evaluations and to address some of the outstanding methodological uncertainties in this field

Real-Time, Real World Learning—Capitalising on Mobile Technology

This chapter explores the adoption of Web 2.0 technologies to promote active learning by students and to both mediate and enhance classroom instruction. Web 2.0 refers to open source, web-enabled applications (apps) that are driven by user-manipulated and user-generated content (Kassens-Noor, 2012). These apps are often rich in user participation, have dynamic content, and harness the collective intelligence of users (Chen, Hwang, & Wang, 2012). As such, these processes create “active, context based, personalised learning experiences” (Kaldoudi, Konstantinidis, & Bamidis, 2010, p. 130) that prioritise learning ahead of teaching. By putting the learner at the centre of the education process educators can provide environments that enhance employability prospects and spark a passion for learning that, hopefully, lasts a lifetime. As such, we critique an active learning approach that makes use of technology such as mobile applications (apps), Twitter, and augmented reality to enhance students’ real world learning. Dunlap and Lowenthal (2009) argue that social media can facilitate active learning as they recreate informal, free-flowing communications that allow students and academics to connect on a more emotional level. Furthermore, their use upskills students in the technical complexities of the digital world and also the specialised discourses that are associated with online participation, suitable for real world learning and working (Fig. 16.1). Three case studies explore the benefits of Web 2.0 processes. The first details the use of Twitter chats to connect students, academics, and industry professionals via online synchronous discussions that offer a number of benefits such as encouraging concise writing from students and maintaining on-going relationships between staff, students, and industry contacts. The second details a location-based mobile app that delivers content to students when they enter a defined geographical boundary linked to an area of a sports precinct. Finally, we explore the use of augmented reality apps to enhance teaching in Human Geography and Urban Studies

The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants

A key feature of life’s diversity is that some species are common but many more are rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction of biodiversity consists of rare species. Here, we present the largest compilation of global plant diversity to quantify the fraction of Earth’s plant biodiversity that are rare. A large fraction, ~36.5% of Earth’s ~435,000 plant species, are exceedingly rare. Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory and the k-niche model, cannot account for the observed prevalence of rarity. Our results indicate that (i) climatically more stable regions have harbored rare species and hence a large fraction of Earth’s plant species via reduced extinction risk but that (ii) climate change and human land use are now disproportionately impacting rare species. Estimates of global species abundance distributions have important implications for risk assessments and conservation planning in this era of rapid global change

New Horned Dinosaurs from Utah Provide Evidence for Intracontinental Dinosaur Endemism

Background:\ud During much of the Late Cretaceous, a shallow, epeiric sea divided North America into eastern and western landmasses. The western landmass, known as Laramidia, although diminutive in size, witnessed a major evolutionary radiation of dinosaurs. Other than hadrosaurs (duck-billed dinosaurs), the most common dinosaurs were ceratopsids (large-bodied horned dinosaurs), currently known only from Laramidia and Asia. Remarkably, previous studies have postulated the occurrence of latitudinally arrayed dinosaur “provinces,” or “biomes,” on Laramidia. Yet this hypothesis has been challenged on multiple fronts and has remained poorly tested.\ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings:\ud Here we describe two new, co-occurring ceratopsids from the Upper Cretaceous Kaiparowits Formation of Utah that provide the strongest support to date for the dinosaur provincialism hypothesis. Both pertain to the clade of ceratopsids known as Chasmosaurinae, dramatically increasing representation of this group from the southern portion of the Western Interior Basin of North America. Utahceratops gettyi gen. et sp. nov.—characterized by short, rounded, laterally projecting supraorbital horncores and an elongate frill with a deep median embayment—is recovered as the sister taxon to Pentaceratops sternbergii from the late Campanian of New Mexico. Kosmoceratops richardsoni gen. et sp. nov.—characterized by elongate, laterally projecting supraorbital horncores and a short, broad frill adorned with ten well developed hooks—has the most ornate skull of any known dinosaur and is closely allied to Chasmosaurus irvinensis from the late Campanian of Alberta.\ud \ud Conclusions/Significance:\ud Considered in unison, the phylogenetic, stratigraphic, and biogeographic evidence documents distinct, co-occurring chasmosaurine taxa north and south on the diminutive landmass of Laramidia. The famous Triceratops and all other, more nested chasmosaurines are postulated as descendants of forms previously restricted to the southern portion of Laramidia. Results further suggest the presence of latitudinally arrayed evolutionary centers of endemism within chasmosaurine ceratopsids during the late Campanian, the first documented occurrence of intracontinental endemism within dinosaurs

Broad-Scale Patterns of Late Jurassic Dinosaur Paleoecology

There have been numerous studies on dinosaur biogeographic distribution patterns. However, these distribution data have not yet been applied to ecological questions. Ecological studies of dinosaurs have tended to focus on reconstructing individual taxa, usually through comparisons to modern analogs. Fewer studies have sought to determine if the ecological structure of fossil assemblages is preserved and, if so, how dinosaur communities varied. Climate is a major component driving differences between communities. If the ecological structure of a fossil locality is preserved, we expect that dinosaur assemblages from similar environments will share a similar ecological structure.This study applies Ecological Structure Analysis (ESA) to a dataset of 100+ dinosaur taxa arranged into twelve composite fossil assemblages from around the world. Each assemblage was assigned a climate zone (biome) based on its location. Dinosaur taxa were placed into ecomorphological categories. The proportion of each category creates an ecological profile for the assemblage, which were compared using cluster and principal components analyses. Assemblages grouped according to biome, with most coming from arid or semi-arid/seasonal climates. Differences between assemblages are tied to the proportion of large high-browsing vs. small ground-foraging herbivores, which separates arid from semi-arid and moister environments, respectively. However, the effects of historical, taphonomic, and other environmental factors are still evident.This study is the first to show that the general ecological structure of Late Jurassic dinosaur assemblages is preserved at large scales and can be assessed quantitatively. Despite a broad similarity of climatic conditions, a degree of ecological variation is observed between assemblages, from arid to moist. Taxonomic differences between Asia and the other regions demonstrate at least one case of ecosystem convergence. The proportion of different ecomorphs, which reflects the prevailing climatic and environmental conditions present during fossil deposition, may therefore be used to differentiate Late Jurassic dinosaur fossil assemblages. This method is broadly applicable to different taxa and times, allowing one to address questions of evolutionary, biogeographic, and climatic importance