Tourism in an unstable and complex world? : searching for a relevant political risk paradigm and model for tourism organisations

This work has a single aim, focusing on developing a political risk model relevant for tourism organisations, which are operating in an increasingly complex and turbulent international environment. It pays particular attention to the language of risk (how risks are articulated and described), the culture of risk (how risks are viewed), and the risk process (how they are analysed and assessed). The work critically evaluates a variety of methods that can be utilised to scan, analyse and assess political hazards and risks. It finds that many of the existing methods of political and country risk assessment are limited and not sufficiently contextualised to the needs of the tourism industry. Whilst many models can have an attractive façade of using positivistic methods to calculate political risks, in practice these are fraught with problems. The study also highlights a more complex relationship between tourism and political instability, whereby tourism can be characterised as much by its robustness, as its sensitivity. A model is developed which primarily adapts a systems theory approach, whereby a language, culture and practical process is developed through which the analysis of various factors and indicators can take place. The approach adopted has a number of stages, which vary in the amount of data necessary for the analysis and assessment of political risks. The model begins by utilising existing travel advice databases, moving onto an analysis of the frequency of past events, then to the nature of the political system itself, finishing with an analysis and assessment of more complex input factors and indicators which relate to notions of causation. One of the more provocative features of the model is the argument that it is more than possible to make an assessment of the risks that the political environment can pose to a tourism organisation, without necessarily understanding theories of causation.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Sport events and human rights: positive promotion or negative erosion?

© 2015 Taylor & Francis. In this paper, we build upon recent scholarship on sport event legacies to identify, categorise, and describe the key processes underpinning sport event interactions with human rights (HR). It develops a simple, representative model to illustrate the points where sport events bisect with HR and considers what factors can modify these impacts. The development of this model is based on a meta-review of literature and examination of case studies. It is clear from our analysis that sport events are malleable, symbolic, and political occurrences that can be positioned to provide evidence and support of benefice or harm to the cause of HR. The model also provides a nuanced approach to consider how sport event organisers may begin to think about the tactics and strategies that might be employed, and how they might leverage HR through their sport event. The model also indicates that HR, being similarly malleable political tools, are paradoxical in application in the sport event context and consequently cannot be assumed to be taken-for-granted as event outcomes or outputs

Glucuronidation by UGT1A1 Is the Dominant Pathway of the Metabolic Disposition of Belinostat in Liver Cancer Patients

10.1371/journal.pone.0054522PLoS ONE81

Importance of dose-schedule of 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine for epigenetic therapy of cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The inactivation of tumor suppressor genes (TSGs) by aberrant DNA methylation plays an important role in the development of malignancy. Since this epigenetic change is reversible, it is a potential target for chemotherapeutic intervention using an inhibitor of DNA methylation, such as 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine (DAC). Although clinical studies show that DAC has activity against hematological malignancies, the optimal dose-schedule of this epigenetic agent still needs to be established.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Clonogenic assays were performed on leukemic and tumor cell lines to evaluate the <it>in vitro </it>antineoplastic activity of DAC. The reactivation of TSGs and inhibition of DNA methylation by DAC were investigated by reverse transcriptase-PCR and Line-1 assays. The <it>in vivo </it>antineoplastic activity of DAC administered as an i.v. infusion was evaluated in mice with murine L1210 leukemia by measurement of survival time, and in mice bearing murine EMT6 mammary tumor by excision of tumor after chemotherapy for an <it>in vitro </it>clonogenic assay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Increasing the DAC concentration and duration of exposure produced a greater loss of clonogenicity for both human leukemic and tumor cell lines. The reactivation of the TSGs (<it>p57KIP2 </it>in HL-60 leukemic cells and <it>p16CDKN2A </it>in Calu-6 lung carcinoma cells) and the inhibition of global DNA methylation in HL-60 leukemic cells increased with DAC concentration. In mice with L1210 leukemia and in mice bearing EMT6 tumors, the antineoplastic action of DAC also increased with the dose. The plasma level of DAC that produced a very potent antineoplastic effect in mice with leukemia or solid tumors was > 200 ng/ml (> 1 μM).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have shown that intensification of the DAC dose markedly increased its antineoplastic activity in mouse models of cancer. Our data also show that there is a good correlation between the concentrations of DAC that reduce <it>in vitro </it>clonogenicity, reactivate TSGs and inhibit DNA methylation. These results suggest that the antineoplastic action of DAC is related to its epigenetic action. Our observations provide a strong rationale to perform clinical trials using dose intensification of DAC to maximize the chemotherapeutic potential of this epigenetic agent in patients with cancer.</p

The Novel Deacetylase Inhibitor AR-42 Demonstrates Pre-Clinical Activity in B-Cell Malignancies In Vitro and In Vivo

While deacetylase (DAC) inhibitors show promise for the treatment of B-cell malignancies, those introduced to date are weak inhibitors of class I and II DACs or potent inhibitors of class I DAC only, and have shown suboptimal activity or unacceptable toxicities. We therefore investigated the novel DAC inhibitor AR-42 to determine its efficacy in B-cell malignancies.In mantle cell lymphoma (JeKo-1), Burkitt's lymphoma (Raji), and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (697) cell lines, the 48-hr IC(50) (50% growth inhibitory concentration) of AR-42 is 0.61 microM or less. In chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patient cells, the 48-hr LC(50) (concentration lethal to 50%) of AR-42 is 0.76 microM. AR-42 produces dose- and time-dependent acetylation both of histones and tubulin, and induces caspase-dependent apoptosis that is not reduced in the presence of stromal cells. AR-42 also sensitizes CLL cells to TNF-Related Apoptosis Inducing Ligand (TRAIL), potentially through reduction of c-FLIP. AR-42 significantly reduced leukocyte counts and/or prolonged survival in three separate mouse models of B-cell malignancy without evidence of toxicity.Together, these data demonstrate that AR-42 has in vitro and in vivo efficacy at tolerable doses. These results strongly support upcoming phase I testing of AR-42 in B-cell malignancies

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Elevated H3K18 acetylation in airway epithelial cells of asthmatic subjects

Background: Epigenetic adjustments of the chromatin architecture through histone modifications are reactive to the environment and can establish chromatin states which are permissive or repressive to gene expression. Epigenetic regulation of gene expression is cell specific and therefore, it is important to understand its contribution to individual cellular responses in tissues like the airway epithelium which forms the mucosal barrier to the inhaled environment within the lung. The airway epithelium of asthmatics is abnormal with dysregulation of genes such as epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), the ΔN isoform of the transcription factor p63 (ΔNp63), and signal transducer and activator of transcription 6 (STAT6), integral to differentiation, proliferation, and inflammation. It is important to establish in diseases like asthma how histone modifications affect tissue responses such as proliferation and differentiation. Objectives: To characterize the global histone acetylation and methylation status in the epithelium of asthmatic compared to healthy subjects and to identify the impact of these variations on genes involved in epithelial functions. Methods: Whole lungs were obtained from healthy and asthmatic subjects (n = 6) from which airway epithelial cells (AECs) were isolated and airway sections were taken for analysis of histone lysine acetylation and methylation by immunohistochemistry. AECs were subjected to chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) using anti-H3K18ac and anti-H3K4me2 antibodies followed by RT-PCR targeting ΔNp63, EGFR, and STAT6. AECs were also treated with TSA and changes in ΔNp63, EGFR, and STAT6 expression were determined. Results: We identified an increase in the acetylation of lysine 18 on histone 3 (H3K18ac) and trimethylation of lysine 9 on histone 3 (H3K9me3) in the airway epithelium of asthmatic compared to healthy subjects. We found increased association of H3K18ac around the transcription start site of ΔNp63, EGFR, and STAT6 in AECs of asthmatics. However, we were unable to modify the expression of these genes with the use of the HDAC inhibitor TSA in healthy subjects. Discussion: The airway epithelium from asthmatic subjects displays increased acetylation of H3K18 and association of this mark around the transcription start site of ΔNp63, EGFR, and STAT6. These findings suggest a complex interaction between histone modifications and gene regulation in asthma