ESTIMATION OF THE CYCLICAL COMPONENT OF ECONOMIC TIME SERIES

The objective of this paper is to show an alternative technique to smooth time series from Monte Carlo Simulations. The technique considers that time series can contain more than one structural break, coming from movements in coefficients of trend or from intercept. The Hodrick-Prescott Filter (HP) does not provide identification of such possible breaks in order to smooth trend from the series to analyze its cyclical component. If the series are relatively stable, this problem may not have relevant implications. Otherwise, for economies relatively unstable, trend movements may interfere in the specification of the cyclical component, and Hodrick-Prescott smoothing could lead empiricists to achieve simplistic forms to economic cycles. In the context, we present an empirical methodology that allows structural breaks in any point of time, from coefficients or from intercepts. We apply this recursive technique to different models with variations in trend, from coefficients and from intercepts, using series simulated by Monte Carlo. Moreover, we compare the results of both techniques to the Brazilian GDP.

Environmental risk assessment in a contaminated estuary: an integrated weight of evidence approach as a decision support tool

Environmental risk assessment of complex ecosystems such as estuaries is a challenge, where innovative and integrated approaches are needed. The present work aimed at developing an innovative integrative methodology to evaluate in an impacted estuary (the Sado, in Portugal, was taken as case study), the adverse effects onto both ecosystem and human health. For the purpose, new standardized lines of evidence based on multiple quantitative data were integrated into a weight of evidence according to a best expert judgment approach. The best professional judgment for a weight of evidence approach in the present study was based on the following lines of evidence: i) human contamination pathways; ii) human health effects: chronic disease; iii) human health effects: reproductive health; iv) human health effects: health care; v) human exposure through consumption of local agriculture produce; vi) exposure to contaminated of water wells and agriculture soils; vii) contamination of the estuarine sedimentary environment (metal and organic contaminants); viii) effects on benthic organisms with commercial value; and ix) genotoxic potential of sediments. Each line of evidence was then ordinally ranked by levels of ecological or human health risk, according to a tabular decision matrix and expert judgment. Fifteen experts scored two fishing areas of the Sado estuary and a control estuarine area, in a scale of increasing environmental risk and management actions to be taken. The integrated assessment allowed concluding that the estuary should not be regarded as impacted by a specific toxicant, such as metals and organic compounds hitherto measured, but by the cumulative risk of a complex mixture of contaminants. The proven adverse effects on species with commercial value may be used to witness the environmental quality of the estuarine ecosystem. This method argues in favor of expert judgment and qualitative assessment as a decision support tool to the integrative management of estuaries. Namely it allows communicating environmental risk and proposing mitigation measures to local authorities and population under a holistic perspective as an alternative to narrow single line of evidence approaches, which is mandatory to understand cause and effect relationships in complex areas like estuaries.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Synthesis, antitumor and antimicrobial activity of novel 1-substituted phenyl-3-[3-alkylamino(methyl)-2-thioxo-1,3,4-oxadiazol-5-yl] β-carboline derivatives

With the purpose of activity enhancement of 1-substituted phenyl-3-(2-thioxo-1,3,4-oxadiazol-5-yl) β-carbolines 1a-c, reported as potential antitumor agents in our previous study, herein we report the synthesis and antitumor activity evaluation of several novel Mannich bases 2-7(a-c), by the introduction of different alkylamino(methyl) groups in the 1,3,4-oxadiazole unity of 1a-c. The antimicrobial activities of 1a-c and of 2-7(a-c) were also evaluated. Additionally, an in silico study of the ADME properties of novel synthesized β-carboline derivatives 2-7(a-c) was performed by evaluation of their Lipinski's parameters and topological polar surface area (TPSA) and percentage of absorption (% ABS) data.Com o propósito de aumentar a atividade anticâncer demonstrada anteriormente pelas 1-fenilssubstituído-3-(2-tioxo-1,3,4-oxadiazol-5-il) β-carbolinas 1a-c, neste trabalho foram realizadas a síntese e a avaliação in vitro da atividade antitumoral de novas bases de Mannich 2-7(a-c), derivadas da introdução de diferentes grupos alquilamino(metil) na unidade 1,3,4-oxadiazol de 1a-c. Os derivados 1a-c e 2-7(a-c) foram também avaliados quanto às atividades antibacteriana e antifúngica. Adicionalmente, um estudo in silico das propriedades de ADME dos novos compostos sintetizados 2-7(a-c) foi realizado pela avaliação de seus parâmetros de Lipinski e de dados de área de superfície topológica polar (TPSA) e de porcentagem de absorção (% ABS).288298Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES

Validation of the Telephone-Administered Version of the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS) Questionnaire

A 14-Item Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS) questionnaire was developed and validated in face-to-face interviews, but not via telephone. The aims of this study were to evaluate the validity and reliability of a telephone-administered version of the MEDAS as well as to validate the Portuguese version of the MEDAS questionnaire. A convenience community-based sample of adults (n = 224) participated in a three-stage survey. First, trained researchers administered MEDAS via a telephone. Second, the Portuguese version of Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ), and MEDAS were administered in a semi-structured face-to-face interview. Finally, MEDAS was again administered via telephone. The telephone-administered MEDAS questionnaire was compared with the face-to-face-version using several metrics. The telephone-administered MEDAS was significantly correlated with the face-to-face-administered MEDAS [r = 0.805, p < 0.001; interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) = 0.803, p < 0.001] and showed strong agreement (k = 0.60). The MEDAS scores that were obtained in the first and second telephone interviews were significantly correlated (r = 0.661, p < 0.001; ICC = 0.639, p < 0.001). The overall agreement between the Portuguese version of MEDAS and the FFQ-derived Mediterranean diet adherence score had a Cohen's k = 0.39. The telephone-administered version of MEDAS is a valid tool for assessing the adherence to the Mediterranean diet and acquiring data for large population-based studies.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Estudo das condições de saúde das crianças do Município de São Paulo (Brasil), 1984/1985: VII - Parasitoses intestinais

As part of a broad epidemiologic survey on health and nutritional status of children living in the City of São Paulo, Brazil, a random sample of under-fives (n = 695) was submitted to stool tests for detection of intestinal parasites. The tests used the sedimentation technique. When the specimens were soft or liquid, direct smear was also utilized. The prevalence of any intestinal parasite was 30.9%. Prevalences of ascaridiasis, giardisis and trichiuriasis were 16.4%, 14.5% and 12.5%, respectively. Lower prevalences were observed for E. histolytica, H. nana and S. stercoralis: 2.0%, 0.9%, and 0.3%, respectively. Hookworm was found in only one child. Schistosoma mansoni was not detected in the sample. Thirteen percent of the children had two or more different parasites and 4.8% three or more. The current prevalences compared to the prevalences observed in the city in 1973/74 show a considerable decline of ascaridiasis and trichiuriasis but not of giardiasis. Frequencies of intestinal parasites according to the age of the child reveal that prevalences tend to increase with age, particularly from the first to the second year of life. The prevalences tend also to increase with the decline of the socioeconomic level: the poorest stratum of the population presents a general prevalence of intestinal parasites nine times greater than the prevalence registered in the richest stratum. The socioeconomic gradient exists also for G. lamblia, but it is considerably lower than that observed for the other intestinal parasites. This fact confirms the more complex epidemiology of giardiasis.Como parte de estudo populacional sobre condições de saúde na infância, uma amostra representativa das crianças menores de cinco anos residentes no Município de São Paulo, SP (Brasil) (n=695) foi submetida a exames parasitológicos de fezes. Os exames foram realizados através da técnica de sedimentação e, quando as fezes tinham consistência amolecida ou liquefeita, também pela técnica do exame direto. A prevalência de enteroparasitoses em geral foi de 30,9%, sendo de 16,4%, 14,5% e 12,5% as prevalências específicas da ascaridíase, giardíase e tricuríase. Prevalências inferiores foram assinaladas para os enteroparasitas E. histolytica, H. nana e S. stercoralis, respectivamente 2,0%, 0,9% e 0,3%. Em apenas uma criança foram encontrados ovos de ancilostomídeos e em nenhuma delas ovos de Schistosoma mansoni. Das crianças examinadas, 13,1% apresentaram duas ou mais espécies de enteroparasitas e 4,8% três ou mais. As prevalências atuais, comparadas às prevalências encontradas em 1973/74 por outro inquérito populacional realizado no município, indicam queda expressiva da ascaridíase e tricuríase, mas não da giardíase. A estratificação das prevalências segundo faixa etária revelou aumento significativo com a idade da criança, chamando atenção o aumento que ocorre do primeiro para o segundo ano de vida. As enteroparasitoses aumentam também significativamente sua freqüência à medida que piora o nível socioeconômico, chegando a ser de nove vezes a diferença de prevalência existente entre os estratos socioeconômicos extremos da população. No caso específico da giardíase o gradiente socioeconômico foi consideravelmente menor do que o encontrado para as demais enteroparasitoses, o que confirma a maior complexidade epidemiológica do problema

Dietary Patterns Characterized by High Meat Consumption Are Associated with Other Unhealthy Life Styles and Depression Symptoms

ObjectiveWe aimed to identify dietary patterns (DPs) of Portuguese adults, to assess their socioeconomic, demographic, lifestyle determinants, and to identify their impact on health.DesignEpiDoC 2 study included 10,153 Portuguese adults from the EpiDoC Cohort, a population-based study. In this study, trained research assistants using computer-assisted telephone interview collected socioeconomic, demographic, dietary, lifestyles, and health information from March 2013 to July 2015. Cluster analysis was performed, based on questions regarding the number of meals, weekly frequency of soup consumption, vegetables, fruit, meat, fish, dairy products, and daily water intake. Factors associated with DP were identified through logistic regression models.ResultsTwo DPs were identified: the “meat dietary pattern” and the “fruit &amp; vegetables dietary pattern.” After multivariable adjustment, women (OR = 0.52; p &lt; 0.001), older adults (OR = 0.97; p &lt; 0.001), and individuals with more years of education (OR = 0.96; p = 0.025) were less likely to adopt the “meat dietary pattern,” while individuals in a situation of job insecurity/unemployment (OR = 1.49; p = 0.013), Azores island residents (OR = 1.40; p = 0.026), current smoking (OR = 1.58; p = 0.001), daily alcohol intake (OR = 1.46; p = 0.023), and physically inactive (OR = 1.86; p &lt; 0.001) were positively and significantly associated with “meat dietary pattern.” Moreover, individuals with depression symptoms (OR = 1.50; p = 0.018) and the ones who did lower number of medical appointments in the previous year (OR = 0.98; p = 0.025) were less likely to report this DP.ConclusionOur results suggest that unhealthy DPs (meat DP) are part of a lifestyle behavior that includes physical inactivity, smoking habits, and alcohol consumption. Moreover, depression symptoms are also associated with unhealthy DPs

The ITRAX core scanner, a useful tool to distinguish anthropic vs. climatic influences in lagoon of Aveiro (N Portugal)

The main goal of this work is to distinguish anthropic and climatic influences in sediments from the lagoon of Aveiro (Portugal). This study is based on a core (240-cm long) collected in Murtosa Channel. Optical and X-radiographic images and high-resolution elemental profiles were acquired with ITRAX micro-X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanner. Samples collected at each ≈3 cm along the core were analysed for grain size and total organic carbon. Furthermore, the fine fraction of selected layers was subjected to geochemical analysis by ICP-MS, after total acid digestion of the sediments, and mineralogical analysis, by XRD techniques. A radiocarbon age was determined by AMS, using molluscs shells collected at a depth of 90 cm. Sediments along the core are composed by fine and medium sand, with several mud layers. Sediments composing the first 100-cm may have been deposited after 1950, as it is indicated by the radiocarbon data, the increasing trend of Zn/Al, Pb/Al and Cu/Al and total concentrations of Zn, Pb, Cu, V, Cr, As and Ni in this interval that therefore might be linked with industrial activities of Chemical Complex of Estarreja. The progressive increase of Si/Al, Cl/Al, Rb/Al, K/Al and Br/Al and reduced Al concentrations, from the base to the top of this core, are interpreted as being related to higher marine influence and greater differences in tidal currents with longer exposition to air of the sediments with the consequent formation of brines favouring minerals precipitation in the area (e.g. anhydrite). These results seem to be a consequence of several works developed over time like: i) dredging to improve the navigation access to the harbour, located in the external sector of the lagoon; ii) the control of the course of some rivers influencing the supply of sediments. The tendency of sea level rise may have also emphasized the gradual increase of marine influence in this area. Fine-grained sections, related to an increase in Al, phyllosilicates, organic matter, pyrite and siderite contents would be attributed to phases of greater supply of fine-sediments during heavy rainfall events by the nearby Antuã river and other streams during negative phases of North Atlantic Oscillation. Higher deposition of organic matter enhanced diagenetic changes with pyrite and siderite formation. In the bottom of the core another record of pollution was unveiled to mining activities at the beginning of 20th century.FCT de Portugal - C/CTE/UI4035/2011CNPq - 401803/2010-

Accuracy of faecal calprotectin and neutrophil Gelatinase B-associated Lipocalin in evaluating subclinical inflammation in UlceRaTIVE colitis-the ACERTIVE study

Background and Aims: Mucosal healing and histological remission are different targets for patients with ulcerative colitis, but both rely on an invasive endoscopic procedure. This study aimed to assess faecal calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase B-associated lipocalin as biomarkers for disease activity in asymptomatic ulcerative colitis patients. Methods: This was a multicentric cross-sectional study including 371 patients, who were classified according to their endoscopic and histological scores. These results were evaluated alongside the faecal levels of both biomarkers. Results: Macroscopic lesions [i.e. endoscopic Mayo score >= 1] were present in 28% of the patients, and 9% had active disease according to fht Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity. Moreover, 21% presented with histological inflammation according to the Geboes index, whereas 15% and 5% presented with focal and diffuse basal plasmacytosis, respectively. The faecal levels of calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase B-associated lipocalin were statistically higher for patients with endoscopic lesions and histological activity. A receiver operating characteristic-based analysis revealed that both biomarkers were able to indicate mucosal healing and histological remission with an acceptable probability, and cut-off levels of 150-250 mu g/g for faecal calprotectin and 12 mu g/g for neutrophil gelatinase B-associated lipocalin were proposed. Conclusions: Faecal calprotectin and neutrophil gelatinase B-associated lipocalin levels are a valuable addition for assessment of disease activity in asymptomatic ulcerative colitis patients. Biological levels of the analysed biomarkers below the proposed thresholds can rule out the presence of macroscopic and microscopic lesions with a probability of 75-93%. However, caution should be applied whenever interpreting positive results, as these biomarkers present consistently low positive predictive values.Portuguese IBD Group [GEDII - Grupo de Estudo da Doenca Inflamatcria Intestinal]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Emprego de anticoncepcionais por uma população brasileira

A group of 245 married women from Mogi das Cruzes (State of S. Paulo, Brazil were questioned about the use of contraceptive practices, past obstetric history, child mortality, and attitude toward birth control. Answers were classified according to age and family earnings. Only 49% of these women practiced contraception, 42% of which used the "pill". There was a positive correlation between the practice of birth control and wage levels, and contraception was like-wise more common in the younger age groups. The natality was reduced considerably in those women who availed themselves of contraception and also it was observed a drastic decrease in the number of abortions and in child mortality. This effect was more pronounced in those who used the anovulatory drugs.Um grupo de 245 mulheres moradoras em Mogi das Cruzes (Estado de S. Paulo, Brasil) foi questionado com relação ao uso de anticoncepcionais, história obstétrica, mortalidade infantil e atitudes correlacionadas com a limitação da natalidade. As respostas foram classificadas segundo idade e nível de renda da informante. Apenas 49% das mulheres empregavam medidas anticoncepcionais, das quais 42% recorriam aos anovulatórios. Esta prática era mais freqüente entre as mulheres jovens, e aquelas pertencentes às famílias melhores situadas economicamente. Não só era mais baixa a natalidade nas mulheres que se valiam de anticoncepcionais, mas esta prática acompanhava-se de sensível redução no número de abortos e da mortalidade infantil. O efeito foi mais pronunciado entre aquelas que empregavam os anovulatórios

Agricultura urbana agroecológica na perspectiva da promoção da saúde

A agricultura urbana tem sido tema de diversas pesquisas no contexto brasileiro e no mundo, principalmente no que diz respeito à geração de trabalho e renda. O presente artigo tem por objetivo sistematizar a experiência do projeto Colhendo Sustentabilidade: práticas comunitárias de segurança alimentar e agricultura urbana (PCS), realizado em Embu das Artes, região metropolitana de São Paulo, durante o período compreendido entre 2008 e 2011, analisando-o sob a ótica da Promoção da Saúde (PS). Foram sujeitos da pesquisa os participantes, os técnicos dos serviços públicos envolvidos e integrantes da equipe técnica do projeto. Os dados foram obtidos através da realização de três oficinas de sistematização, seguidas de outra em que os resultados foram apresentados aos participantes, e também por meio de entrevistas com informantes-chave. Os mesmos foram analisados à luz dos princípios e campos de ação da PS. As conclusões revelaram a agricultura urbana agroecológica (AUA) como ferramenta promotora de saúde por contribuir com o fortalecimento do protagonismo individual e comunitário, empoderamento, criação de ambientes favoráveis à saúde, bem como seu potencial para a multiplicação de "saberes", pelos envolvidos, sobre temas relacionados à geração de renda, saúde e meio ambiente