Exploring possible futures or reinforcing the status-quo? : the use of model-based scenarios in the Swiss energy industry

Energy scenarios are often claimed to support decision-makers involved in the energy transition. However, an empirical understanding of how decision makers select, interpret, and use energy scenarios is largely missing. This study examined how high-level public utility executives in the energy sector, a key target audience of energy scenarios, perceive and interact with energy scenarios. Based on interviews with representatives of 20 Swiss utilities, we show that the use of scenarios is rarely part of a formalized process aimed at assisting decision-making processes. Instead, the selection of scenarios is often contingent on users’ perceptions of their legitimacy, credibility, and salience. While utility executives could rely on a wide variety of scenarios published by academic, corporate, and non-governmental organizations, they often focus on a limited set. Given the complexity of contemporary energy scenarios, which are often based on sophisticated energy system models, familiarity with publishing organizations and reporting styles is an important selection heuristic for users. This stands in contrast to the purpose and of stated key motivation of considering a broad range of plausible futures and their associated trade-offs. Our results suggest that to evaluate the impact of energy scenarios, social-scientific research also needs to consider user groups that are neither involved in participative modeling activities, nor collaborating with scenario developers in any other form. The usefulness of energy scenarios in these contexts and particularly their capacity to contribute to integrative deliberations on plausible and desirable energy futures is highly relevant, yet largely unknown

Perspectives sur le statut des équipements électroniques à Montréal = Perspectives on the Status of Electronic Equipment in Montreal

"The [...] anthology responds to the ever-increasing amount of electronic equipment that is perceived as obsolete, valueless or disposable. Contributors from diverse disciplines including ecology, waste management, technology activism and contemporary art bring their expertise to bear on the consumption, use, obsolescence, disposal and repair and re-use of electronic equipment. Perspectives’ hybrid approach to these topics will be of interest to both general and specialized readers negotiating the cultural, environmental and social impacts of contemporary technology. Essays, projects and resource materials highlight approaches and practices that question consumption patterns and propose alternative approaches to using technology. Case studies and local contexts from Montreal Quebec are related to issues and initiatives across industrialized societies." -- Publisher's website

Getting shot of elves: healing, witchcraft and fairies in the Scottish witchcraft trials

This paper re-examines the evidence of the Scottish witchcraft trials for beliefs associated by scholars with "elf-shot." Some supposed evidence for elf-shot is dismissed, but other material illuminates the interplay between illness, healing and fairy-lore in early modern Scotland, and the relationship of these beliefs to witchcraft itself

Observational and genetic associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and cancer:A UK Biobank and international consortia study

Background: The association of fitness with cancer risk is not clear. Methods: We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of lung, colorectal, endometrial, breast, and prostate cancer in a subset of UK Biobank participants who completed a submaximal fitness test in 2009-12 (N = 72,572). We also investigated relationships using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method. Results: After a median of 11 years of follow-up, 4290 cancers of interest were diagnosed. A 3.5 ml O 2⋅min −1⋅kg −1 total-body mass increase in fitness (equivalent to 1 metabolic equivalent of task (MET), approximately 0.5 standard deviation (SD)) was associated with lower risks of endometrial (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.73–0.89), colorectal (0.94, 0.90–0.99), and breast cancer (0.96, 0.92–0.99). In MR analyses, a 0.5 SD increase in genetically predicted O 2⋅min −1⋅kg −1 fat-free mass was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86–0.98). After adjusting for adiposity, both the observational and genetic associations were attenuated. Discussion: Higher fitness levels may reduce risks of endometrial, colorectal, and breast cancer, though relationships with adiposity are complex and may mediate these relationships. Increasing fitness, including via changes in body composition, may be an effective strategy for cancer prevention.</p

Race, ethnicity, community-level socioeconomic factors, and risk of COVID-19 in the United States and the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: There is limited prior investigation of the combined influence of personal and community-level socioeconomic factors on racial/ethnic disparities in individual risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis nested within a prospective cohort of 2,102,364 participants from March 29, 2020 in the United States (US) and March 24, 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK) through December 02, 2020 via the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application. We examined the contribution of community-level deprivation using the Neighborhood Deprivation Index (NDI) and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) to observe racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 incidence. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04331509. FINDINGS: Compared with non-Hispanic White participants, the risk for a positive COVID-19 test was increased in the US for non-Hispanic Black (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18–1.47) and Hispanic participants (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.33–1.52) and in the UK for Black (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02–1.34), South Asian (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.30–1.49), and Middle Eastern participants (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18–1.61). This elevated risk was associated with living in more deprived communities according to the NDI/IMD. After accounting for downstream mediators of COVID-19 risk, community-level deprivation still mediated 16.6% and 7.7% of the excess risk in Black compared to White participants in the US and the UK, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Our results illustrate the critical role of social determinants of health in the disproportionate COVID-19 risk experienced by racial and ethnic minorities. FUNDING: Please refer to the Funding section at the end of the article

Cancer risks by gene, age, and gender in 6350 carriers of pathogenic mismatch repair variants: findings from the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database

*Shared first authorship (Dominguez-V M, Sampson J, Seppälä T)PURPOSE: Pathogenic variants affecting MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 cause Lynch syndrome and result in different but imprecisely known cancer risks. This study aimed to provide age and organ-specific cancer risks according to gene and gender and to determine survival after cancer. METHODS: We conducted an international, multicenter prospective observational study using independent test and validation cohorts of carriers of class 4 or class 5 variants. After validation the cohorts were merged providing 6350 participants and 51,646 follow-up years. RESULTS: There were 1808 prospectively observed cancers. Pathogenic MLH1 and MSH2 variants caused high penetrance dominant cancer syndromes sharing similar colorectal, endometrial, and ovarian cancer risks, but older MSH2 carriers had higher risk of cancers of the upper urinary tract, upper gastrointestinal tract, brain, and particularly prostate. Pathogenic MSH6 variants caused a sex-limited trait with high endometrial cancer risk but only modestly increased colorectal cancer risk in both genders. We did not demonstrate a significantly increased cancer risk in carriers of pathogenic PMS2 variants. Ten-year crude survival was over 80% following colon, endometrial, or ovarian cancer. CONCLUSION: Management guidelines for Lynch syndrome may require revision in light of these different gene and gender-specific risks and the good prognosis for the most commonly associated cancers.Peer reviewe

No Difference in Penetrance between Truncating and Missense/Aberrant Splicing Pathogenic Variants in MLH1 and MSH2: A Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database Study

Background. Lynch syndrome is the most common genetic predisposition for hereditary cancer. Carriers of pathogenic changes in mismatch repair (MMR) genes have an increased risk of developing colorectal (CRC), endometrial, ovarian, urinary tract, prostate, and other cancers, depending on which gene is malfunctioning. In Lynch syndrome, differences in cancer incidence (penetrance) according to the gene involved have led to the stratification of cancer surveillance. By contrast, any differences in penetrance determined by the type of pathogenic variant remain unknown. Objective. To determine cumulative incidences of cancer in carriers of truncating and missense or aberrant splicing pathogenic variants of the MLH1 and MSH2 genes. Methods. Carriers of pathogenic variants of MLH1 (path_MLH1) and MSH2 (path_MSH2) genes filed in the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) were categorized as truncating or missense/aberrant splicing according to the InSiGHT criteria for pathogenicity. Results. Among 5199 carriers, 1045 had missense or aberrant splicing variants, and 3930 had truncating variants. Prospective observation years for the two groups were 8205 and 34,141 years, respectively, after which there were no significant differences in incidences for cancer overall or for colorectal cancer or endometrial cancers separately. Conclusion. Truncating and missense or aberrant splicing pathogenic variants were associated with similar average cumulative incidences of cancer in carriers of path MLH1 and path_MSH2

No Difference in Penetrance between Truncating and Missense/Aberrant Splicing Pathogenic Variants in MLH1 and MSH2: A Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database Study

Background. Lynch syndrome is the most common genetic predisposition for hereditary cancer. Carriers of pathogenic changes in mismatch repair (MMR) genes have an increased risk of developing colorectal (CRC), endometrial, ovarian, urinary tract, prostate, and other cancers, depending on which gene is malfunctioning. In Lynch syndrome, differences in cancer incidence (penetrance) according to the gene involved have led to the stratification of cancer surveillance. By contrast, any differences in penetrance determined by the type of pathogenic variant remain unknown. Objective. To determine cumulative incidences of cancer in carriers of truncating and missense or aberrant splicing pathogenic variants of the MLH1 and MSH2 genes. Methods. Carriers of pathogenic variants of MLH1 (path_MLH1) and MSH2 (path_MSH2) genes filed in the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) were categorized as truncating or missense/aberrant splicing according to the InSiGHT criteria for pathogenicity. Results. Among 5199 carriers, 1045 had missense or aberrant splicing variants, and 3930 had truncating variants. Prospective observation years for the two groups were 8205 and 34,141 years, respectively, after which there were no significant differences in incidences for cancer overall or for colorectal cancer or endometrial cancers separately. Conclusion. Truncating and missense or aberrant splicing pathogenic variants were associated with similar average cumulative incidences of cancer in carriers of path MLH1 and path_MSH2

Risk-reducing hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy in female heterozygotes of pathogenic mismatch repair variants : a Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database report

Purpose To determine impact of risk-reducing hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO) on gynecological cancer incidence and death in heterozygotes of pathogenic MMR (path_MMR) variants. Methods The Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database was used to investigate the effects of gynecological risk-reducing surgery (RRS) at different ages. Results Risk-reducing hysterectomy at 25 years of age prevents endometrial cancer before 50 years in 15%, 18%, 13%, and 0% of path_MLH1, path_MSH2, path_MSH6, and path_PMS2 heterozygotes and death in 2%, 2%, 1%, and 0%, respectively. Risk-reducing BSO at 25 years of age prevents ovarian cancer before 50 years in 6%, 11%, 2%, and 0% and death in 1%, 2%, 0%, and 0%, respectively. Risk-reducing hysterectomy at 40 years prevents endometrial cancer by 50 years in 13%, 16%, 11%, and 0% and death in 1%, 2%, 1%, and 0%, respectively. BSO at 40 years prevents ovarian cancer before 50 years in 4%, 8%, 0%, and 0%, and death in 1%, 1%, 0%, and 0%, respectively. Conclusion Little benefit is gained by performing RRS before 40 years of age and premenopausal BSO in path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 heterozygotes has no measurable benefit for mortality. These findings may aid decision making for women with LS who are considering RRS.Peer reviewe