Neuromorphic Hardware In The Loop: Training a Deep Spiking Network on the BrainScaleS Wafer-Scale System

Emulating spiking neural networks on analog neuromorphic hardware offers several advantages over simulating them on conventional computers, particularly in terms of speed and energy consumption. However, this usually comes at the cost of reduced control over the dynamics of the emulated networks. In this paper, we demonstrate how iterative training of a hardware-emulated network can compensate for anomalies induced by the analog substrate. We first convert a deep neural network trained in software to a spiking network on the BrainScaleS wafer-scale neuromorphic system, thereby enabling an acceleration factor of 10 000 compared to the biological time domain. This mapping is followed by the in-the-loop training, where in each training step, the network activity is first recorded in hardware and then used to compute the parameter updates in software via backpropagation. An essential finding is that the parameter updates do not have to be precise, but only need to approximately follow the correct gradient, which simplifies the computation of updates. Using this approach, after only several tens of iterations, the spiking network shows an accuracy close to the ideal software-emulated prototype. The presented techniques show that deep spiking networks emulated on analog neuromorphic devices can attain good computational performance despite the inherent variations of the analog substrate.Comment: 8 pages, 10 figures, submitted to IJCNN 201

Pattern representation and recognition with accelerated analog neuromorphic systems

Despite being originally inspired by the central nervous system, artificial neural networks have diverged from their biological archetypes as they have been remodeled to fit particular tasks. In this paper, we review several possibilites to reverse map these architectures to biologically more realistic spiking networks with the aim of emulating them on fast, low-power neuromorphic hardware. Since many of these devices employ analog components, which cannot be perfectly controlled, finding ways to compensate for the resulting effects represents a key challenge. Here, we discuss three different strategies to address this problem: the addition of auxiliary network components for stabilizing activity, the utilization of inherently robust architectures and a training method for hardware-emulated networks that functions without perfect knowledge of the system's dynamics and parameters. For all three scenarios, we corroborate our theoretical considerations with experimental results on accelerated analog neuromorphic platforms.Comment: accepted at ISCAS 201

EUROCarbDB: An open-access platform for glycoinformatics

The EUROCarbDB project is a design study for a technical framework, which provides sophisticated, freely accessible, open-source informatics tools and databases to support glycobiology and glycomic research. EUROCarbDB is a relational database containing glycan structures, their biological context and, when available, primary and interpreted analytical data from high-performance liquid chromatography, mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance experiments. Database content can be accessed via a web-based user interface. The database is complemented by a suite of glycoinformatics tools, specifically designed to assist the elucidation and submission of glycan structure and experimental data when used in conjunction with contemporary carbohydrate research workflows. All software tools and source code are licensed under the terms of the Lesser General Public License, and publicly contributed structures and data are freely accessible. The public test version of the web interface to the EUROCarbDB can be found at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/eurocar

EUROCarbDB: An open-access platform for glycoinformatics

The EUROCarbDB project is a design study for a technical framework, which provides sophisticated, freely accessible, open-source informatics tools and databases to support glycobiology and glycomic research. EUROCarbDB is a relational database containing glycan structures, their biological context and, when available, primary and interpreted analytical data from high-performance liquid chromatography, mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance experiments. Database content can be accessed via a web-based user interface. The database is complemented by a suite of glycoinformatics tools, specifically designed to assist the elucidation and submission of glycan structure and experimental data when used in conjunction with contemporary carbohydrate research workflows. All software tools and source code are licensed under the terms of the Lesser General Public License, and publicly contributed structures and data are freely accessible. The public test version of the web interface to the EUROCarbDB can be found at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/eurocarb

Conservation Planning for Ecosystem Services

Despite increasing attention to the human dimension of conservation projects, a rigorous, systematic methodology for planning for ecosystem services has not been developed. This is in part because flows of ecosystem services remain poorly characterized at local-to-regional scales, and their protection has not generally been made a priority. We used a spatially explicit conservation planning framework to explore the trade-offs and opportunities for aligning conservation goals for biodiversity with six ecosystem services (carbon storage, flood control, forage production, outdoor recreation, crop pollination, and water provision) in the Central Coast ecoregion of California, United States. We found weak positive and some weak negative associations between the priority areas for biodiversity conservation and the flows of the six ecosystem services across the ecoregion. Excluding the two agriculture-focused services—crop pollination and forage production—eliminates all negative correlations. We compared the degree to which four contrasting conservation network designs protect biodiversity and the flow of the six services. We found that biodiversity conservation protects substantial collateral flows of services. Targeting ecosystem services directly can meet the multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity goals more efficiently but cannot substitute for targeted biodiversity protection (biodiversity losses of 44% relative to targeting biodiversity alone). Strategically targeting only biodiversity plus the four positively associated services offers much promise (relative biodiversity losses of 7%). Here we present an initial analytical framework for integrating biodiversity and ecosystem services in conservation planning and illustrate its application. We found that although there are important potential trade-offs between conservation for biodiversity and for ecosystem services, a systematic planning framework offers scope for identifying valuable synergies

Large scale multifactorial likelihood quantitative analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants: An ENIGMA resource to support clinical variant classification

The multifactorial likelihood analysis method has demonstrated utility for quantitative assessment of variant pathogenicity for multiple cancer syndrome genes. Independent data types currently incorporated in the model for assessing BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants include clinically calibrated prior probability of pathogenicity based on variant location and bioinformatic prediction of variant effect, co-segregation, family cancer history profile, co-occurrence with a pathogenic variant in the same gene, breast tumor pathology, and case-control information. Research and clinical data for multifactorial likelihood analysis were collated for 1,395 BRCA1/2 predominantly intronic and missense variants, enabling classification based on posterior probability of pathogenicity for 734 variants: 447 variants were classified as (likely) benign, and 94 as (likely) pathogenic; and 248 classifications were new or considerably altered relative to ClinVar submissions. Classifications were compared with information not yet included in the likelihood model, and evidence strengths aligned to those recommended for ACMG/AMP classification codes. Altered mRNA splicing or function relative to known nonpathogenic variant controls were moderately to strongly predictive of variant pathogenicity. Variant absence in population datasets provided supporting evidence for variant pathogenicity. These findings have direct relevance for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant evaluation, and justify the need for gene-specific calibration of evidence types used for variant classification

Human Practice. Digital Ecologies. Our Future. : 14. Internationale Tagung Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI 2019) : Tagungsband

Erschienen bei: universi - Universitätsverlag Siegen. - ISBN: 978-3-96182-063-4Aus dem Inhalt: Track 1: Produktion & Cyber-Physische Systeme Requirements and a Meta Model for Exchanging Additive Manufacturing Capacities Service Systems, Smart Service Systems and Cyber- Physical Systems—What’s the difference? Towards a Unified Terminology Developing an Industrial IoT Platform – Trade-off between Horizontal and Vertical Approaches Machine Learning und Complex Event Processing: Effiziente Echtzeitauswertung am Beispiel Smart Factory Sensor retrofit for a coffee machine as condition monitoring and predictive maintenance use case Stakeholder-Analyse zum Einsatz IIoT-basierter Frischeinformationen in der Lebensmittelindustrie Towards a Framework for Predictive Maintenance Strategies in Mechanical Engineering - A Method-Oriented Literature Analysis Development of a matching platform for the requirement-oriented selection of cyber physical systems for SMEs Track 2: Logistic Analytics An Empirical Study of Customers’ Behavioral Intention to Use Ridepooling Services – An Extension of the Technology Acceptance Model Modeling Delay Propagation and Transmission in Railway Networks What is the impact of company specific adjustments on the acceptance and diffusion of logistic standards? Robust Route Planning in Intermodal Urban Traffic Track 3: Unternehmensmodellierung & Informationssystemgestaltung (Enterprise Modelling & Information Systems Design) Work System Modeling Method with Different Levels of Specificity and Rigor for Different Stakeholder Purposes Resolving Inconsistencies in Declarative Process Models based on Culpability Measurement Strategic Analysis in the Realm of Enterprise Modeling – On the Example of Blockchain-Based Initiatives for the Electricity Sector Zwischenbetriebliche Integration in der Möbelbranche: Konfigurationen und Einflussfaktoren Novices’ Quality Perceptions and the Acceptance of Process Modeling Grammars Entwicklung einer Definition für Social Business Objects (SBO) zur Modellierung von Unternehmensinformationen Designing a Reference Model for Digital Product Configurators Terminology for Evolving Design Artifacts Business Role-Object Specification: A Language for Behavior-aware Structural Modeling of Business Objects Generating Smart Glasses-based Information Systems with BPMN4SGA: A BPMN Extension for Smart Glasses Applications Using Blockchain in Peer-to-Peer Carsharing to Build Trust in the Sharing Economy Testing in Big Data: An Architecture Pattern for a Development Environment for Innovative, Integrated and Robust Applications Track 4: Lern- und Wissensmanagement (e-Learning and Knowledge Management) eGovernment Competences revisited – A Literature Review on necessary Competences in a Digitalized Public Sector Say Hello to Your New Automated Tutor – A Structured Literature Review on Pedagogical Conversational Agents Teaching the Digital Transformation of Business Processes: Design of a Simulation Game for Information Systems Education Conceptualizing Immersion for Individual Learning in Virtual Reality Designing a Flipped Classroom Course – a Process Model The Influence of Risk-Taking on Knowledge Exchange and Combination Gamified Feedback durch Avatare im Mobile Learning Alexa, Can You Help Me Solve That Problem? - Understanding the Value of Smart Personal Assistants as Tutors for Complex Problem Tasks Track 5: Data Science & Business Analytics Matching with Bundle Preferences: Tradeoff between Fairness and Truthfulness Applied image recognition: guidelines for using deep learning models in practice Yield Prognosis for the Agrarian Management of Vineyards using Deep Learning for Object Counting Reading Between the Lines of Qualitative Data – How to Detect Hidden Structure Based on Codes Online Auctions with Dual-Threshold Algorithms: An Experimental Study and Practical Evaluation Design Features of Non-Financial Reward Programs for Online Reviews: Evaluation based on Google Maps Data Topic Embeddings – A New Approach to Classify Very Short Documents Based on Predefined Topics Leveraging Unstructured Image Data for Product Quality Improvement Decision Support for Real Estate Investors: Improving Real Estate Valuation with 3D City Models and Points of Interest Knowledge Discovery from CVs: A Topic Modeling Procedure Online Product Descriptions – Boost for your Sales? Entscheidungsunterstützung durch historienbasierte Dienstreihenfolgeplanung mit Pattern A Semi-Automated Approach for Generating Online Review Templates Machine Learning goes Measure Management: Leveraging Anomaly Detection and Parts Search to Improve Product-Cost Optimization Bedeutung von Predictive Analytics für den theoretischen Erkenntnisgewinn in der IS-Forschung Track 6: Digitale Transformation und Dienstleistungen Heuristic Theorizing in Software Development: Deriving Design Principles for Smart Glasses-based Systems Mirroring E-service for Brick and Mortar Retail: An Assessment and Survey Taxonomy of Digital Platforms: A Platform Architecture Perspective Value of Star Players in the Digital Age Local Shopping Platforms – Harnessing Locational Advantages for the Digital Transformation of Local Retail Outlets: A Content Analysis A Socio-Technical Approach to Manage Analytics-as-a-Service – Results of an Action Design Research Project Characterizing Approaches to Digital Transformation: Development of a Taxonomy of Digital Units Expectations vs. Reality – Benefits of Smart Services in the Field of Tension between Industry and Science Innovation Networks and Digital Innovation: How Organizations Use Innovation Networks in a Digitized Environment Characterising Social Reading Platforms— A Taxonomy-Based Approach to Structure the Field Less Complex than Expected – What Really Drives IT Consulting Value Modularity Canvas – A Framework for Visualizing Potentials of Service Modularity Towards a Conceptualization of Capabilities for Innovating Business Models in the Industrial Internet of Things A Taxonomy of Barriers to Digital Transformation Ambidexterity in Service Innovation Research: A Systematic Literature Review Design and success factors of an online solution for cross-pillar pension information Track 7: IT-Management und -Strategie A Frugal Support Structure for New Software Implementations in SMEs How to Structure a Company-wide Adoption of Big Data Analytics The Changing Roles of Innovation Actors and Organizational Antecedents in the Digital Age Bewertung des Kundennutzens von Chatbots für den Einsatz im Servicedesk Understanding the Benefits of Agile Software Development in Regulated Environments Are Employees Following the Rules? On the Effectiveness of IT Consumerization Policies Agile and Attached: The Impact of Agile Practices on Agile Team Members’ Affective Organisational Commitment The Complexity Trap – Limits of IT Flexibility for Supporting Organizational Agility in Decentralized Organizations Platform Openness: A Systematic Literature Review and Avenues for Future Research Competence, Fashion and the Case of Blockchain The Digital Platform Otto.de: A Case Study of Growth, Complexity, and Generativity Track 8: eHealth & alternde Gesellschaft Security and Privacy of Personal Health Records in Cloud Computing Environments – An Experimental Exploration of the Impact of Storage Solutions and Data Breaches Patientenintegration durch Pfadsysteme Digitalisierung in der Stressprävention – eine qualitative Interviewstudie zu Nutzenpotenzialen User Dynamics in Mental Health Forums – A Sentiment Analysis Perspective Intent and the Use of Wearables in the Workplace – A Model Development Understanding Patient Pathways in the Context of Integrated Health Care Services - Implications from a Scoping Review Understanding the Habitual Use of Wearable Activity Trackers On the Fit in Fitness Apps: Studying the Interaction of Motivational Affordances and Users’ Goal Orientations in Affecting the Benefits Gained Gamification in Health Behavior Change Support Systems - A Synthesis of Unintended Side Effects Investigating the Influence of Information Incongruity on Trust-Relations within Trilateral Healthcare Settings Track 9: Krisen- und Kontinuitätsmanagement Potentiale von IKT beim Ausfall kritischer Infrastrukturen: Erwartungen, Informationsgewinnung und Mediennutzung der Zivilbevölkerung in Deutschland Fake News Perception in Germany: A Representative Study of People’s Attitudes and Approaches to Counteract Disinformation Analyzing the Potential of Graphical Building Information for Fire Emergency Responses: Findings from a Controlled Experiment Track 10: Human-Computer Interaction Towards a Taxonomy of Platforms for Conversational Agent Design Measuring Service Encounter Satisfaction with Customer Service Chatbots using Sentiment Analysis Self-Tracking and Gamification: Analyzing the Interplay of Motivations, Usage and Motivation Fulfillment Erfolgsfaktoren von Augmented-Reality-Applikationen: Analyse von Nutzerrezensionen mit dem Review-Mining-Verfahren Designing Dynamic Decision Support for Electronic Requirements Negotiations Who is Stressed by Using ICTs? A Qualitative Comparison Analysis with the Big Five Personality Traits to Understand Technostress Walking the Middle Path: How Medium Trade-Off Exposure Leads to Higher Consumer Satisfaction in Recommender Agents Theory-Based Affordances of Utilitarian, Hedonic and Dual-Purposed Technologies: A Literature Review Eliciting Customer Preferences for Shopping Companion Apps: A Service Quality Approach The Role of Early User Participation in Discovering Software – A Case Study from the Context of Smart Glasses The Fluidity of the Self-Concept as a Framework to Explain the Motivation to Play Video Games Heart over Heels? An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Emotions and Review Helpfulness for Experience and Credence Goods Track 11: Information Security and Information Privacy Unfolding Concerns about Augmented Reality Technologies: A Qualitative Analysis of User Perceptions To (Psychologically) Own Data is to Protect Data: How Psychological Ownership Determines Protective Behavior in a Work and Private Context Understanding Data Protection Regulations from a Data Management Perspective: A Capability-Based Approach to EU-GDPR On the Difficulties of Incentivizing Online Privacy through Transparency: A Qualitative Survey of the German Health Insurance Market What is Your Selfie Worth? A Field Study on Individuals’ Valuation of Personal Data Justification of Mass Surveillance: A Quantitative Study An Exploratory Study of Risk Perception for Data Disclosure to a Network of Firms Track 12: Umweltinformatik und nachhaltiges Wirtschaften Kommunikationsfäden im Nadelöhr – Fachliche Prozessmodellierung der Nachhaltigkeitskommunikation am Kapitalmarkt Potentiale und Herausforderungen der Materialflusskostenrechnung Computing Incentives for User-Based Relocation in Carsharing Sustainability’s Coming Home: Preliminary Design Principles for the Sustainable Smart District Substitution of hazardous chemical substances using Deep Learning and t-SNE A Hierarchy of DSMLs in Support of Product Life-Cycle Assessment A Survey of Smart Energy Services for Private Households Door-to-Door Mobility Integrators as Keystone Organizations of Smart Ecosystems: Resources and Value Co-Creation – A Literature Review Ein Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem zur ökonomischen Bewertung von Mieterstrom auf Basis der Clusteranalyse Discovering Blockchain for Sustainable Product-Service Systems to enhance the Circular Economy Digitale Rückverfolgbarkeit von Lebensmitteln: Eine verbraucherinformatische Studie Umweltbewusstsein durch audiovisuelles Content Marketing? Eine experimentelle Untersuchung zur Konsumentenbewertung nachhaltiger Smartphones Towards Predictive Energy Management in Information Systems: A Research Proposal A Web Browser-Based Application for Processing and Analyzing Material Flow Models using the MFCA Methodology Track 13: Digital Work - Social, mobile, smart On Conversational Agents in Information Systems Research: Analyzing the Past to Guide Future Work The Potential of Augmented Reality for Improving Occupational First Aid Prevent a Vicious Circle! The Role of Organizational IT-Capability in Attracting IT-affine Applicants Good, Bad, or Both? Conceptualization and Measurement of Ambivalent User Attitudes Towards AI A Case Study on Cross-Hierarchical Communication in Digital Work Environments ‘Show Me Your People Skills’ - Employing CEO Branding for Corporate Reputation Management in Social Media A Multiorganisational Study of the Drivers and Barriers of Enterprise Collaboration Systems-Enabled Change The More the Merrier? The Effect of Size of Core Team Subgroups on Success of Open Source Projects The Impact of Anthropomorphic and Functional Chatbot Design Features in Enterprise Collaboration Systems on User Acceptance Digital Feedback for Digital Work? Affordances and Constraints of a Feedback App at InsurCorp The Effect of Marker-less Augmented Reality on Task and Learning Performance Antecedents for Cyberloafing – A Literature Review Internal Crowd Work as a Source of Empowerment - An Empirical Analysis of the Perception of Employees in a Crowdtesting Project Track 14: Geschäftsmodelle und digitales Unternehmertum Dividing the ICO Jungle: Extracting and Evaluating Design Archetypes Capturing Value from Data: Exploring Factors Influencing Revenue Model Design for Data-Driven Services Understanding the Role of Data for Innovating Business Models: A System Dynamics Perspective Business Model Innovation and Stakeholder: Exploring Mechanisms and Outcomes of Value Creation and Destruction Business Models for Internet of Things Platforms: Empirical Development of a Taxonomy and Archetypes Revitalizing established Industrial Companies: State of the Art and Success Principles of Digital Corporate Incubators When 1+1 is Greater than 2: Concurrence of Additional Digital and Established Business Models within Companies Special Track 1: Student Track Investigating Personalized Price Discrimination of Textile-, Electronics- and General Stores in German Online Retail From Facets to a Universal Definition – An Analysis of IoT Usage in Retail Is the Technostress Creators Inventory Still an Up-To-Date Measurement Instrument? Results of a Large-Scale Interview Study Application of Media Synchronicity Theory to Creative Tasks in Virtual Teams Using the Example of Design Thinking TrustyTweet: An Indicator-based Browser-Plugin to Assist Users in Dealing with Fake News on Twitter Application of Process Mining Techniques to Support Maintenance-Related Objectives How Voice Can Change Customer Satisfaction: A Comparative Analysis between E-Commerce and Voice Commerce Business Process Compliance and Blockchain: How Does the Ethereum Blockchain Address Challenges of Business Process Compliance? Improving Business Model Configuration through a Question-based Approach The Influence of Situational Factors and Gamification on Intrinsic Motivation and Learning Evaluation von ITSM-Tools für Integration und Management von Cloud-Diensten am Beispiel von ServiceNow How Software Promotes the Integration of Sustainability in Business Process Management Criteria Catalog for Industrial IoT Platforms from the Perspective of the Machine Tool Industry Special Track 3: Demos & Prototyping Privacy-friendly User Location Tracking with Smart Devices: The BeaT Prototype Application-oriented robotics in nursing homes Augmented Reality for Set-up Processe Mixed Reality for supporting Remote-Meetings Gamification zur Motivationssteigerung von Werkern bei der Betriebsdatenerfassung Automatically Extracting and Analyzing Customer Needs from Twitter: A “Needmining” Prototype GaNEsHA: Opportunities for Sustainable Transportation in Smart Cities TUCANA: A platform for using local processing power of edge devices for building data-driven services Demonstrator zur Beschreibung und Visualisierung einer kritischen Infrastruktur Entwicklung einer alltagsnahen persuasiven App zur Bewegungsmotivation für ältere Nutzerinnen und Nutzer A browser-based modeling tool for studying the learning of conceptual modeling based on a multi-modal data collection approach Exergames & Dementia: An interactive System for People with Dementia and their Care-Network Workshops Workshop Ethics and Morality in Business Informatics (Workshop Ethik und Moral in der Wirtschaftsinformatik – EMoWI’19) Model-Based Compliance in Information Systems - Foundations, Case Description and Data Set of the MobIS-Challenge for Students and Doctoral Candidates Report of the Workshop on Concepts and Methods of Identifying Digital Potentials in Information Management Control of Systemic Risks in Global Networks - A Grand Challenge to Information Systems Research Die Mitarbeiter von morgen - Kompetenzen künftiger Mitarbeiter im Bereich Business Analytics Digitaler Konsum: Herausforderungen und Chancen der Verbraucherinformati

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions