Detecting and Responding to Concept Drift in Business Processes

Concept drift, which refers to changes in the underlying process structure or customer behaviour over time, is inevitable in business processes, causing challenges in ensuring that the learned model is a proper representation of the new data. Due to factors such as seasonal effects and policy updates, concept drifts can occur in customer transitions and time spent throughout the process, either suddenly or gradually. In a concept drift context, we can discard the old data and retrain the model using new observations (sudden drift) or combine the old data with the new data to update the model (gradual drift) or maintain the model as unchanged (no drift). In this paper, we model a response to concept drift as a sequential decision making problem by combing a hierarchical Markov model and a Markov decision process (MDP). The approach can detect concept drift, retrain the model and update customer profiles automatically. We validate the proposed approach on 68 artificial datasets and a real-world hospital billing dataset, with experimental results showing promising performance

Tissue Culture as a Source of Replicates in Nonmodel Plants: Variation in Cold Response in Arabidopsis lyrata ssp. petraea

While genotype–environment interaction is increasingly receiving attention by ecologists and evolutionary biologists, such studies need genetically homogeneous replicates—a challenging hurdle in outcrossing plants. This could be potentially overcome by using tissue culture techniques. However, plants regenerated from tissue culture may show aberrant phenotypes and “somaclonal” variation. Here, we examined somaclonal variation due to tissue culturing using the response to cold treatment of photosynthetic efficiency (chlorophyll fluorescence measurements for Fv/Fm, Fv9/Fm9, and FPSII, representing maximum efficiency of photosynthesis for dark- and lightadapted leaves, and the actual electron transport operating efficiency, respectively, which are reliable indicators of photoinhibition and damage to the photosynthetic electron transport system). We compared this to variation among half-sibling seedlings from three different families of Arabidopsis lyrata ssp. petraea. Somaclonal variation was limited, and we could detect within-family variation in change in chlorophyll fluorescence due to cold shock successfully with the help of tissue-culture derived replicates. Icelandic and Norwegian families exhibited higher chlorophyll fluorescence, suggesting higher performance after cold shock, than a Swedish family. Although the main effect of tissue culture on Fv/Fm, Fv9/Fm9, and FPSII was small, there were significant interactions between tissue culture and family, suggesting that the effect of tissue culture is genotype-specific. Tissue-cultured plantlets were less affected by cold treatment than seedlings, but to a different extent in each family. These interactive effects, however, were comparable to, or much smaller than the single effect of family. These results suggest that tissue culture is a useful method for obtaining genetically homogenous replicates for studying genotype–environment interaction related to adaptively-relevant phenotypes, such as cold response, in nonmodel outcrossing plants

Two in one: cryptic species discovered in biological control agent populations using molecular data and crossbreeding experiments

There are many examples of cryptic species that have been identified through DNA-barcoding or other genetic techniques. There are, however, very few confirmations of cryptic species being reproductively isolated. This study presents one of the few cases of cryptic species that has been confirmed to be reproductively isolated and therefore true species according to the biological species concept. The cryptic species are of special interest because they were discovered within biological control agent populations. Two geographically isolated populations of Eccritotarsus catarinensis (Carvalho) [Hemiptera: Miridae], a biological control agent for the invasive aquatic macrophyte, water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms [Pontederiaceae], in South Africa, were sampled from the native range of the species in South America. Morphological characteristics indicated that both populations were the same species according to the current taxonomy, but subsequent DNA analysis and breeding experiments revealed that the two populations are reproductively isolated. Crossbreeding experiments resulted in very few hybrid offspring when individuals were forced to interbreed with individuals of the other population, and no hybrid offspring were recorded when a choice of mate from either population was offered. The data indicate that the two populations are cryptic species that are reproductively incompatible. Subtle but reliable diagnostic characteristics were then identified to distinguish between the two species which would have been considered intraspecific variation without the data from the genetics and interbreeding experiments. These findings suggest that all consignments of biological control agents from allopatric populations should be screened for cryptic species using genetic techniques and that the importation of multiple consignments of the same species for biological control should be conducted with caution

Children and older adults exhibit distinct sub-optimal cost-benefit functions when preparing to move their eyes and hands

"© 2015 Gonzalez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited"Numerous activities require an individual to respond quickly to the correct stimulus. The provision of advance information allows response priming but heightened responses can cause errors (responding too early or reacting to the wrong stimulus). Thus, a balance is required between the online cognitive mechanisms (inhibitory and anticipatory) used to prepare and execute a motor response at the appropriate time. We investigated the use of advance information in 71 participants across four different age groups: (i) children, (ii) young adults, (iii) middle-aged adults, and (iv) older adults. We implemented 'cued' and 'non-cued' conditions to assess age-related changes in saccadic and touch responses to targets in three movement conditions: (a) Eyes only; (b) Hands only; (c) Eyes and Hand. Children made less saccade errors compared to young adults, but they also exhibited longer response times in cued versus non-cued conditions. In contrast, older adults showed faster responses in cued conditions but exhibited more errors. The results indicate that young adults (18 -25 years) achieve an optimal balance between anticipation and execution. In contrast, children show benefits (few errors) and costs (slow responses) of good inhibition when preparing a motor response based on advance information; whilst older adults show the benefits and costs associated with a prospective response strategy (i.e., good anticipation)

The LSST DESC data challenge 1: Generation and analysis of synthetic images for next-generation surveys

Data Challenge 1 (DC1) is the first synthetic data set produced by the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC). DC1 is designed to develop and validate data reduction and analysis and to study the impact of systematic effects that will affect the LSST data set. DC1 is comprised of r-band observations of 40 deg2 to 10 yr LSST depth. We present each stage of the simulation and analysis process: (a) generation, by synthesizing sources from cosmological N-body simulations in individual sensor-visit images with different observing conditions; (b) reduction using a development version of the LSST Science Pipelines; and (c) matching to the input cosmological catalogue for validation and testing. We verify that testable LSST requirements pass within the fidelity of DC1. We establish a selection procedure that produces a sufficiently clean extragalactic sample for clustering analyses and we discuss residual sample contamination, including contributions from inefficiency in star-galaxy separation and imperfect deblending. We compute the galaxy power spectrum on the simulated field and conclude that: (i) survey properties have an impact of 50 per cent of the statistical uncertainty for the scales and models used in DC1; (ii) a selection to eliminate artefacts in the catalogues is necessary to avoid biases in the measured clustering; and (iii) the presence of bright objects has a significant impact (2-6) in the estimated power spectra at small scales (> 1200), highlighting the impact of blending in studies at small angular scales in LSST