On State-Space Reduction in Multi-Strain Pathogen Models, with an Application to Antigenic Drift in Influenza A

Many pathogens exist in phenotypically distinct strains that interact with each other through competition for hosts. General models that describe such multi-strain systems are extremely difficult to analyze because their state spaces are enormously large. Reduced models have been proposed, but so far all of them necessarily allow for coinfections and require that immunity be mediated solely by reduced infectivity, a potentially problematic assumption. Here, we suggest a new state-space reduction approach that allows immunity to be mediated by either reduced infectivity or reduced susceptibility and that can naturally be used for models with or without coinfections. Our approach utilizes the general framework of status-based models. The cornerstone of our method is the introduction of immunity variables, which describe multi-strain systems more naturally than the traditional tracking of susceptible and infected hosts. Models expressed in this way can be approximated in a natural way by a truncation method that is akin to moment closure, allowing us to sharply reduce the size of the state space, and thus to consider models with many strains in a tractable manner. Applying our method to the phenomenon of antigenic drift in influenza A, we propose a potentially general mechanism that could constrain viral evolution to a one-dimensional manifold in a two-dimensional trait space. Our framework broadens the class of multi-strain systems that can be adequately described by reduced models. It permits computational, and even analytical, investigation and thus serves as a useful tool for understanding the evolution and ecology of multi-strain pathogens

Latent variables and route choice behavior

In the last decade, a broad array of disciplines has shown a general interest in enhancing discrete choice models by considering the incorporation of psychological factors affecting decision making. This paper provides insight into the comprehension of the determinants of route choice behavior by proposing and estimating a hybrid model that integrates latent variable and route choice models. Data contain information about latent variable indicators and chosen routes of travelers driving regularly from home to work in an urban network. Choice sets include alternative routes generated with a branch and bound algorithm. A hybrid model consists of measurement equations, which relate latent variables to measurement indicators and utilities to choice indicators, and structural equations, which link travelers' observable characteristics to latent variables and explanatory variables to utilities. Estimation results illustrate that considering latent variables (i.e., memory, habit, familiarity, spatial ability, time saving skills) alongside traditional variables (e.g., travel time, distance, congestion level) enriches the comprehension of route choice behavior

Analysis of latent tuberculosis and mycobacterium avium infection data using mixture models

BACKGROUND: Estimation of the frequency of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is difficult in areas with low tuberculosis infection rates and high exposure to non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), including BCG vaccination. The objective was to assess LTBI and M avium infection and to estimate their probability based on skin tests responses in an infant population from a region with the aforementioned characteristics. METHODS: A population-based tuberculin skin test (TST) and sensitin (M avium) survey was conducted on seven years old infants in Biscay, a province from The Basque Country (Spain). 2268 schoolchildren received sensitin and 5277 TST. Participation rate was 89%. Commonly used estimation methods were compared with a method based on the fit of mixture models using the Expectation Maximization algorithm. Functions estimating the probabilities of LTBI and M avium infection given the observed skin tests responses were developed for vaccinated and unvaccinated children. RESULTS: LTBI prevalences varied widely according to the estimation method. The mixture model provided prevalences higher than expected although intermediates between those obtained by currently recommended approaches. Exposure to previous BCG vaccine produces an upward shift of an average of about 3 mm on the induration size to attain the same probability of infection. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm the commonplace exposure to NTM which effect should be taken into account when performing and assessing tuberculin surveys. The use of mixture analysis under the empirical Bayes framework allows to better estimate the probability of LTBI in settings with presence of other NTM and high BCG-vaccination coverage. An estimation of the average effect of BCG vaccination on TST induration is also provided. These models maximise information coming from classical tuberculin surveys and could be used together with the newly developed blood tests to improve survey's specificity and cost-effectiveness

Population Genomic Analysis of a Bacterial Plant Pathogen: Novel Insight into the Origin of Pierce's Disease of Grapevine in the U.S.

Invasive diseases present an increasing problem worldwide; however, genomic techniques are now available to investigate the timing and geographical origin of such introductions. We employed genomic techniques to demonstrate that the bacterial pathogen causing Pierce's disease of grapevine (PD) is not native to the US as previously assumed, but descended from a single genotype introduced from Central America. PD has posed a serious threat to the US wine industry ever since its first outbreak in Anaheim, California in the 1880s and continues to inhibit grape cultivation in a large area of the country. It is caused by infection of xylem vessels by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa, a genetically distinct subspecies at least 15,000 years old. We present five independent kinds of evidence that strongly support our invasion hypothesis: 1) a genome-wide lack of genetic variability in X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa found in the US, consistent with a recent common ancestor; 2) evidence for historical allopatry of the North American subspecies X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex and X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa; 3) evidence that X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa evolved in a more tropical climate than X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex; 4) much greater genetic variability in the proposed source population in Central America, variation within which the US genotypes are phylogenetically nested; and 5) the circumstantial evidence of importation of known hosts (coffee plants) from Central America directly into southern California just prior to the first known outbreak of the disease. The lack of genetic variation in X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa in the US suggests that preventing additional introductions is important since new genetic variation may undermine PD control measures, or may lead to infection of other crop plants through the creation of novel genotypes via inter-subspecific recombination. In general, geographically mixing of previously isolated subspecies should be avoided

Universal Plant DNA Barcode Loci May Not Work in Complex Groups: A Case Study with Indian Berberis Species

BACKGROUND: The concept of DNA barcoding for species identification has gained considerable momentum in animals because of fairly successful species identification using cytochrome oxidase I (COI). In plants, matK and rbcL have been proposed as standard barcodes. However, barcoding in complex genera is a challenging task. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We investigated the species discriminatory power of four reportedly most promising plant DNA barcoding loci (one from nuclear genome--ITS, and three from plastid genome--trnH-psbA, rbcL and matK) in species of Indian Berberis L. (Berberidaceae) and two other genera, Ficus L. (Moraceae) and Gossypium L. (Malvaceae). Berberis species were delineated using morphological characters. These characters resulted in a well resolved species tree. Applying both nucleotide distance and nucleotide character-based approaches, we found that none of the loci, either singly or in combinations, could discriminate the species of Berberis. ITS resolved all the tested species of Ficus and Gossypium and trnH-psbA resolved 82% of the tested species in Ficus. The highly regarded matK and rbcL could not resolve all the species. Finally, we employed amplified fragment length polymorphism test in species of Berberis to determine their relationships. Using ten primer pair combinations in AFLP, the data demonstrated incomplete species resolution. Further, AFLP analysis showed that there was a tendency of the Berberis accessions to cluster according to their geographic origin rather than species affiliation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We reconfirm the earlier reports that the concept of universal barcode in plants may not work in a number of genera. Our results also suggest that the matK and rbcL, recommended as universal barcode loci for plants, may not work in all the genera of land plants. Morphological, geographical and molecular data analyses of Indian species of Berberis suggest probable reticulate evolution and thus barcode markers may not work in this case

Quasi-Neutral theory of epidemic outbreaks

Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scalefree or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for "accidental pathogens" which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures Accepted for publication in PLoS ONE the text have been modified in orden to improve the figure's resolutio

The undebated issue of justice: silent discourses in Dutch flood risk management

Flood risk for all types of flooding is projected to increase based on climate change projections and increases in damage potential. These challenges are likely to aggravate issues of justice in flood risk management (henceforth FRM). Based on a discursive-institutionalist perspective, this paper explores justice in Dutch FRM: how do institutions allocate the responsibilities and costs for FRM for different types of flooding? What are the underlying conceptions of justice? What are the future challenges with regard to climate change? The research revealed that a dichotomy is visible in the Dutch approach to FRM: despite an abundance of rules, regulations and resources spent, flood risk or its management, are only marginally discussed in terms of justice. Despite that the current institutional arrangement has material outcomes that treat particular groups of citizens differently, depending on the type of flooding they are prone to, area they live in (unembanked/embanked) or category of user (e.g. household, industry, farmer). The paper argues that the debate on justice will (re)emerge, since the differences in distributional outcomes are likely to become increasingly uneven as a result of increasing flood risk. The Netherlands should be prepared for this debate by generating the relevant facts and figures. An inclusive debate on the distribution of burdens of FRM could contribute to more effective and legitimate FRM

Fate of the H-NS–Repressed bgl Operon in Evolution of Escherichia coli

In the enterobacterial species Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica, expression of horizontally acquired genes with a higher than average AT content is repressed by the nucleoid-associated protein H-NS. A classical example of an H-NS–repressed locus is the bgl (aryl-β,D-glucoside) operon of E. coli. This locus is “cryptic,” as no laboratory growth conditions are known to relieve repression of bgl by H-NS in E. coli K12. However, repression can be relieved by spontaneous mutations. Here, we investigated the phylogeny of the bgl operon. Typing of bgl in a representative collection of E. coli demonstrated that it evolved clonally and that it is present in strains of the phylogenetic groups A, B1, and B2, while it is presumably replaced by a cluster of ORFans in the phylogenetic group D. Interestingly, the bgl operon is mutated in 20% of the strains of phylogenetic groups A and B1, suggesting erosion of bgl in these groups. However, bgl is functional in almost all B2 isolates and, in approximately 50% of them, it is weakly expressed at laboratory growth conditions. Homologs of bgl genes exist in Klebsiella, Enterobacter, and Erwinia species and also in low GC-content Gram-positive bacteria, while absent in E. albertii and Salmonella sp. This suggests horizontal transfer of bgl genes to an ancestral Enterobacterium. Conservation and weak expression of bgl in isolates of phylogenetic group B2 may indicate a functional role of bgl in extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli

Cluster randomised controlled feasibility study of HENRY: a community-based intervention aimed at reducing obesity rates in preschool children

Background In the UK and beyond, public funding is used to commission interventions delivered in public health early years settings aimed at improving health and well-being and reducing inequalities in order to promote school readiness. This is a key setting for obesity prevention programmes, which are often commissioned despite the limited evidence base. The HENRY (Health, Exercise, Nutrition for the Really Young) programme is an 8-week programme delivered to parents of preschool children, designed to support families to optimise healthy weight behaviours. Early evidence suggests that it may be effective, but a robust evaluation using a randomised controlled design has not been conducted. This study begins this process by evaluating the feasibility of conducting a multi-centre definitive trial to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HENRY to prevent obesity in the early years. Methods This is a multi-centre, open labelled, two group, prospective, cluster randomised, controlled, feasibility study aiming to recruit 120 parents from 12 children’s centres, based in two local authority areas. Within each of the two local authorities, three centres will be randomised to HENRY and three will be randomised to a control arm of standard care (usual provision of services within children’s centres). We will explore HENRY commissioning, provision and delivery and assess the feasibility of local authority, centre and parent recruitment, the processes and time required to train and certify staff to deliver the intervention, the potential sources (and associated risk) of contamination and the feasibility of the trial procedures. Research includes a process evaluation, feasibility of cost-effectiveness evaluation, with progression to the definitive trial judged against pre-defined criteria. Discussion This feasibility study will support the decision to proceed to, and the design of, a future definitive trial, providing an evidence base of an approach to prevent childhood obesity, which has been deemed attractive to all stakeholders, including parents. Given the widespread adoption of the intervention, this has the potential to impact on public health in the UK and beyond

Nitric oxide (NO) elicits aminoglycoside tolerance in Escherichia coli but antibiotic resistance gene carriage and NO sensitivity have not co-evolved

The spread of multidrug-resistance in Gram-negative bacterial pathogens presents a major clinical challenge, and new approaches are required to combat these organisms. Nitric oxide (NO) is a well-known antimicrobial that is produced by the immune system in response to infection, and numerous studies have demonstrated that NO is a respiratory inhibitor with both bacteriostatic and bactericidal properties. However, given that loss of aerobic respiratory complexes is known to diminish antibiotic efficacy, it was hypothesised that the potent respiratory inhibitor NO would elicit similar effects. Indeed, the current work demonstrates that pre-exposure to NO-releasers elicits a >10-fold increase in IC50 for gentamicin against pathogenic E. coli (i.e. a huge decrease in lethality). It was therefore hypothesised that hyper-sensitivity to NO may have arisen in bacterial pathogens, and that this trait could promote the acquisition of antibiotic-resistance mechanisms through enabling cells to persist in the presence of toxic levels of antibiotic. To test this hypothesis, genomics and microbiological approaches were used to screen a collection of E. coli clinical isolates for antibiotic susceptibility and NO tolerance, although the data did not support a correlation between increased carriage of antibiotic resistance genes and NO tolerance. However, the current work has important implications for how antibiotic susceptibility might be measured in future (i.e. +/- NO), and underlines the evolutionary advantage for bacterial pathogens to maintain tolerance to toxic levels of NO