A Medium-Term Interindustry Econometric Model of the Moscow Economy

As the largest Russian region with high socio-economic indicators, Moscow affects economic development of the whole country. Therefore, the present study aims to develop a model to forecast main indicators of the Moscow economy. To accomplish the task, it is necessary to: a) choose a suitable model and forecasting methods; b) transform available regional statistics into an appropriate form; c) select an algorithm for assessing the impact of detailed budget expenditures on the Moscow economy; d) combine the obtained results to construct a forecasting model. The proposed medium-term forecasting model of the Moscow economy includes both interindustry and econometric approaches. The study justified the use of cross-validation metrics for selecting optimal econometric forecasting models. An algorithm for converting budget expenditure data from detailed expenditure codes into economic activities and product data was developed. We assessed the impact of Moscow’s budget expenditures on the economy considering intra-city interindustry connections. According to the model calculations, two complex macroeconomic forecasts were used as scenarios: the base forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (April 2023) and the lower-growth forecast of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (March 2023). The scenario of the Ministry of Economic Development assumes that, in 2023–2025, the Russian gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices will increase by 1.2, 2.0 and 2.6 %, respectively. The gross regional product (GRP) of Moscow is expected to increase by 0.5, 0.8 and 1.2 %, respectively. The calculations show that, depending on these scenarios, Moscow’s GRP in current prices will grow up to 30.9-31.7 trillion roubles by 2025. Moscow budget expenditure multiplier for GRP is estimated as 0.76-0.77 for 2023-2025.Москва — крупнейший регион России, лидирующий по многим социально-экономическим показателям и в силу своего масштаба влияющий на экономику страны в целом. Это определяет цель исследования — построение модели для прогнозирования основных индикаторов развития московской экономики. Реализация данной цели предполагает выполнение следующих основных задач: а) выбор оптимального типа модели и прогностических методов, б) преобразование доступной региональной статистики в форму, позволяющую применять эти методы, в) нахождение алгоритма для учета влияния детализированных бюджетных расходов на московскую экономику, г) комбинацию результатов выполнения предыдущих задач для построения прогнозной модели. В статье описана разработанная авторами среднесрочная сценарная модель экономики Москвы, в рамках которой сочетаются межотраслевой и эконометрический подходы к прогнозированию экономического развития. Обосновывается использование наилучших кросс-валидационных метрик для выбора оптимальных с точки зрения прогнозирования эконометрических моделей. Разработан алгоритм перевода сумм расходов по детализированным кодам расходов бюджетной классификации в отраслевой разрез. Предложен подход к оценке влияния расходов московского бюджета на экономику c учетом внутригородских межотраслевых связей. Приведены результаты модельных расчетов, в рамках которых в качестве сценариев используются два комплексных макроэкономических прогноза: базовый прогноз Минэкономразвития России (апрель 2023 г.) и инерционный прогноз ИНП РАН (март 2023 г.). Сценарий Минэкономразвития в числе прочего предполагает прирост ВВП России в постоянных ценах в 2023–2025 гг. в 1,2, 2,0 и 2,6 % соответственно. Прогнозные темпы прироста московского ВРП в этом сценарии — 0,5, 0,8 и 1,2 % соответственно. Согласно выполненным расчетам, к 2025 г. московский ВРП в текущих ценах увеличится в зависимости от сценария до 30,9–31,7 трлн руб., а мультипликатор московских бюджетных расходов на ВРП в 2023–2025 гг. будет оставаться на уровне 0,76-0,77

Study of doubly strange systems using stored antiprotons

Bound nuclear systems with two units of strangeness are still poorly known despite their importance for many strong interaction phenomena. Stored antiprotons beams in the GeV range represent an unparalleled factory for various hyperon-antihyperon pairs. Their outstanding large production probability in antiproton collisions will open the floodgates for a series of new studies of systems which contain two or even more units of strangeness at the P‾ANDA experiment at FAIR. For the first time, high resolution γ-spectroscopy of doubly strange ΛΛ-hypernuclei will be performed, thus complementing measurements of ground state decays of ΛΛ-hypernuclei at J-PARC or possible decays of particle unstable hypernuclei in heavy ion reactions. High resolution spectroscopy of multistrange Ξ−-atoms will be feasible and even the production of Ω−-atoms will be within reach. The latter might open the door to the |S|=3 world in strangeness nuclear physics, by the study of the hadronic Ω−-nucleus interaction. For the first time it will be possible to study the behavior of Ξ‾+ in nuclear systems under well controlled conditions

Conceptual design of pellet charge eXchange (PCX) diagnostics for stellarator W7-X

Pellet Charge eXchange diagnostic using Li pellets has been considered for the W7-X machine. Geometry of the experimental set-up and parameters of both lithium pellet injector (LPI) and neutral particle analyser (NPA) were evaluated. It was shown that this diagnostics can provide very well detectable H"0 signal in the range 50 - 1000 keV generated by RF driven H"+ minority ions in W7-X. The PCX diagnostics will be able to measure H"+ energy spectra and density profiles in wide range of W7-X plasma parameters. The proposed NPA can be designed on a basis of the NPA ISEP (Ioffe institute) installed now on JET. A pellet light-gas gun can be used to accelerate Li pellets of 2 - 3 mm in size up to 1 km/s velocities. That provides the required pellet penetration into the plasma core. Due to sticky problems with Li operation, a special technique of loading and keeping the pellets in a charger unit of LPI has to be developed. Development of PCX diagnostics for absolute measurements of the confined minority protons requires improvement of the pellet ablation model used. Knowledge of the cloud dimensions and density distributions of different charge states of ions is of special interest. It is necessary to improve predictions of pellet penetrations in non-Maxwellian plasmas as well. An optical system for measurements of pellet cloud density profiles should be foreseen on W7-X. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RA 71(10/20) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Study of Excited Ξ\Xi Baryons with the PANDA Detector

The study of baryon excitation spectra provides insight into the inner structure of baryons. So far, most of the world-wide efforts have been directed towards $N^*$ and $\Delta$ spectroscopy. Nevertheless, the study of the double and triple strange baryon spectrum provides independent information to the $N^*$ and $\Delta$ spectra. The future antiproton experiment PANDA will provide direct access to final states containing a $\bar{\Xi}\Xi$ pair, for which production cross sections up to $\mu$b are expected in $\bar{p}p$ reactions. With a luminosity of $L=10^{31}\,cm^{-2}s^{-1}$ in the first phase of the experiment, the expected cross sections correspond to a production rate of $\sim 10^6$ events$/$day. With a nearly $4\pi$ detector acceptance, PANDA will thus be a hyperon factory. In this study, reactions of the type $\bar{p}p\rightarrow \bar{\Xi}^+ \Xi^{*-}$ as well as $\bar{p}p\rightarrow \bar{\Xi}^{*+} \Xi^{-}$ with various decay modes are investigated. For the exclusive reconstruction of the signal events a full decay tree fit is used, resulting in reconstruction efficiencies between $3\,\%$ and $5\,\%$. This allows high statistics data to be collected within a few weeks of data taking

Technical Design Report for the Panda Forward Spectrometer Calorimeter

This document is devoted to the electromagnetic calorimeter of the Forward Spectrometer and describes the design considerations, the technical layout, the expected performance, and the production readiness