Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina

In most cases, gauged river flow records in southern South America extend for only a few decades, hampering the detection of long-term, decadal to centennial-scale cycles and trends. Long streamflow series can be reconstructed from tree-ring records, offering the opportunity of extending the limited hydrological instrumental data to several centuries. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the Neuquén River has great importance for local and national socio-economic activities such as hydroelectric power generation, agriculture and tourism. In this study, new and updated tree-ring chronologies from Araucaria araucana and Austrocedrus chilensis are used to reconstruct the October-June mean streamflow for the Neuquén River and place the period of gauged flows (1903-2009), in a long-term, multi-century context. The reconstruction covers the period 1346-2000 AD and was developed from a network of 43 tree-ring chronologies, grouped in composite series, using a nested principal component regression approach. Analyses of the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts and pluvial events indicate that the 20th century contains some of the driest and wettest annual to decadal-scale events in the last 654 yr, but longer and more severe events were recorded in previous centuries. Blackman-Tukey and singular spectral analyses identified quasiperiodic oscillations from 3.5 to 17.5 yr. A dominant 6.8-yr cycle explains ca. 23.6% of the total variance in the Neuquén River streamflow reconstruction. Correlation analyses showed that discharges of the Neuquén River are related to variations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a measure of air mass exchanges between middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. This association is consistent with previous studies that indicate a strong correlation between rainfall in northern Patagonia and SAM variations.Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale

Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scale

Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina

In most cases, gauged river flow records in southern South America extend for only a few decades, hampering the detection of long-term, decadal to centennial-scale cycles and trends. Long streamflow series can be reconstructed from tree-ring records, offering the opportunity of extending the limited hydrological instrumental data to several centuries. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the Neuquén River has great importance for local and national socio-economic activities such as hydroelectric power generation, agriculture and tourism. In this study, new and updated tree-ring chronologies from Araucaria araucana and Austrocedrus chilensis are used to reconstruct the October-June mean streamflow for the Neuquén River and place the period of gauged flows (1903-2009), in a long-term, multi-century context. The reconstruction covers the period 1346-2000 AD and was developed from a network of 43 tree-ring chronologies, grouped in composite series, using a nested principal component regression approach. Analyses of the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts and pluvial events indicate that the 20th century contains some of the driest and wettest annual to decadal-scale events in the last 654 yr, but longer and more severe events were recorded in previous centuries. Blackman-Tukey and singular spectral analyses identified quasiperiodic oscillations from 3.5 to 17.5 yr. A dominant 6.8-yr cycle explains ca. 23.6% of the total variance in the Neuquén River streamflow reconstruction. Correlation analyses showed that discharges of the Neuquén River are related to variations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a measure of air mass exchanges between middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. This association is consistent with previous studies that indicate a strong correlation between rainfall in northern Patagonia and SAM variations.Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale

Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions are the main tools for quantifying pre-instrumental climate variations. For some metrics such as Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, there is remarkable agreement between models and reconstructions. For other diagnostics, such as the regional response to volcanic eruptions, or hemispheric temperature differences, substantial disagreements between data and models have been reported. Here, we assess the potential sources of these discrepancies by comparing 1000-year hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on real-world paleoclimate proxies with climate-model-based pseudoproxies. These pseudoproxy experiments (PPE) indicate that noise inherent in proxy records and the unequal spatial distribution of proxy data are the key factors in explaining the data-model differences. For example, lower inter-hemispheric correlations in reconstructions can be fully accounted for by these factors in the PPE. Noise and data sampling also partly explain the reduced amplitude of the response to external forcing in reconstructions compared to models. For other metrics, such as inter-hemispheric differences, some, although reduced, discrepancy remains. Our results suggest that improving proxy data quality and spatial coverage is the key factor to increase the quality of future climate reconstructions, while the total number of proxy records and reconstruction methodology play a smaller role

Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815- 1854. Part I: Methodology and Evaluation

The meteorological information found within ships’ logbooks is a unique and fascinating source of data for historical climatology. This study uses wind observations from logbooks covering the period 1815 to 1854 to reconstruct an index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for boreal winter (DJF). Statistically-based reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are obtained using two methods: principal component regression (PCR) and composite-plus-scale (CPS). Calibration and validation are carried out over the modern period 1979–2014, assessing the relationship between re-gridded seasonal ERA-Interim reanalysis wind data and the instrumental SOI. The reconstruction skill of both the PCR and CPS methods is found to be high with reduction of error skill scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively. The relationships derived during the fitting period are then applied to the logbook wind data to reconstruct the historical SOI. We develop a new method to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructions to using a limited number of observations per season and find that the CPS method performs better than PCR with a limited number of observations. A difference in the distribution of wind force terms used by British and Dutch ships is found, and its impact on the reconstruction assessed. The logbook reconstructions agree well with a previous SOI reconstructed from Jakarta rain day counts, 1830–1850, adding robustness to our reconstructions. Comparisons to additional documentary and proxy data sources are provided in a companion paper

Low atmospheric CO2 levels during the Little Ice Age due to cooling-induced terrestrial uptake

Low atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration during the Little Ice Age has been used to derive the global carbon cycle sensitivity to temperature. Recent evidence confirms earlier indications that the low CO2 was caused by increased terrestrial carbon storage. It remains unknown whether the terrestrial biosphere responded to temperature variations, or there was vegetation re-growth on abandoned farmland. Here we present a global numerical simulation of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide concentrations in the pre-industrial period. Carbonyl sulfide concentration is linked to changes in gross primary production and shows a positive anomaly during the Little Ice Age. We show that a decrease in gross primary production and a larger decrease in ecosystem respiration is the most likely explanation for the decrease in atmospheric CO2 and increase in atmospheric carbonyl sulfide concentrations. Therefore, temperature change, not vegetation re-growth, was the main cause of the increased terrestrial carbon storage. We address the inconsistency between ice-core CO2 records from different sites measuring CO2 and δ13CO2 in ice from Dronning Maud Land (Antarctica). Our interpretation allows us to derive the temperature sensitivity of pre-industrial CO2 fluxes for the terrestrial biosphere (γL = -10 to -90 Pg C K-1), implying a positive climate feedback and providing a benchmark to reduce model uncertainties

Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium

Evaluation of the reach and impact of the 100% Jeune youth social marketing program in Cameroon: findings from three cross-sectional surveys

BACKGROUND: The 100% Jeune youth social marketing program in Cameroon aims to address the high STI/HIV prevalence rates and the high levels of unwanted pregnancy. This study evaluates the 100% Jeune program, analyzing its reach and impact on condom use, level of sexual activity, and predictors of condom use. METHODS: This analysis uses data from three waves of the Cameroon Adolescent Reproductive Health Survey, implemented at 18-month intervals between 2000 and 2003. The sample is restricted to unmarried youth aged 15–24; sample sizes are 1,956 youth in 2000, 3,237 in 2002, and 3,370 in 2003. Logistic regression analyses determine trends in reproductive health behavior and their predictors, as well as estimate the effect of program exposure on these variables. All regression analyses control for differences in sample characteristics. RESULTS: A comparison of trends over the 36-month study period shows that substantial positive changes occurred among youth. Results of dose response analyses indicate that some of these positive changes in condom use and predictors of use can be attributed to the 100% Jeune youth social marketing program. The program contributed to substantial increases in condom use, including consistent use with regular partners among youth of both sexes. Among males, it also contributed to consistent use with casual partners. While condom use increased with both regular and casual partners, levels of use are higher with the latter. Observed secular trends indicate that factors besides the 100% Jeune program also contributed to the observed improvements. Despite efforts to promote abstinence, the 100% Jeune program had no effect on levels of sexual activity or number of sexual partners. Likewise, there is no evidence that reproductive health programs for youth lead to increased sexual activity. CONCLUSION: Results show that 100% Jeune successfully used a variety of mass media and interpersonal communication channels to reach a high proportion of youth throughout the intervention period. In a context in which a variety of governmental and nongovernmental partners are increasing youth-focused reproductive health programming, the 100% Jeune program reached a higher proportion of youth than did other programs. Collective efforts of multiple organizations over time can lead to improvements in adolescent reproductive health. Resources should be allocated to identify and understand predictors of abstinence and partner reduction to inform future programming decisions

Generating demand and community support for sexual and reproductive health services for young people: A review of the Literature and Programs

BACKGROUND: This review investigates the effectiveness of interventions aimed at generating demand for and use of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services by young people; and interventions aimed at generating wider community support for their use. METHODS: Reports and publications were found in the peer-reviewed and grey literature through academic search engines; web searches; the bibliographies of known conference proceedings and papers; and consultation with experts. The studies were reviewed against a set of inclusion criteria and those that met these were explored in more depth. RESULTS: The evidence-base for interventions aimed at both generating demand and community support for SRH services for young people was found under-developed and many available studies do not provide strong evidence. However, the potential of several methods to increase youth uptake has been demonstrated, this includes the linking of school education programs with youth friendly services, life skills approaches and social marketing and franchising. There is also evidence that the involvement of key community gatekeepers such as parents and religious leaders is vital to generating wider community support. In general a combined multi-component approach seems most promising with several success stories to build on. CONCLUSIONS: Many areas for further research have been highlighted and there is a great need for more rigorous evaluation of programmes in this area. In particular, further evaluation of individual components within a multi-component approach is needed to elucidate the most effective interventions