Atmospheric boundary layer characteristics from ceilometer measurements. Part 1: a new method to track mixed layer height and classify clouds

The use of Automatic Lidars and Ceilometers (ALC) is increasingly extended beyond monitoring cloud base height to the study of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) dynamics. Therefore, long-term sensor networks observations require robust algorithms to automatically detect the mixed layer height (ZML). Here, a novel automatic algorithm CABAM (Characterise the Atmospheric Boundary layer based on ALC Measurements) is presented . CABAM is the first, non-proprietary mixed layer height algorithm specifically designed for the commonly deployed Vaisala CL31 ceilometer. The method: tracks ZML, takes into account precipitation, classifies the ABL based on cloud cover and cloud type, and determines the relation between ZML and cloud base height. CABAM relies solely on ALC measurements. Results perform well against independent reference (AMDAR: Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay) measurements and supervised ZML detection. AMDAR derived temperature inversion heights allow ZML evaluation throughout the day. Very good agreement is found in the afternoon when the mixed layer height extends over the full ABL. However, during night or the morning transition the temperature inversion is more likely associated with the top of the residual layer. From comparison with SYNOP reports, the ABL classification scheme generally correctly distinguishes between convective and stratiform boundary layer clouds, with slightly better performance during daytime. Applied to six years of ALC observations in central London, Kotthaus and Grimmond (2018) demonstrate CABAM results are valuable to characterise the urban boundary layer over London, UK, where clouds of various types are frequent

Rainfall-induced differential settlements of foundations on heterogeneous unsaturated soils

This study stochastically investigates the rainfall-induced differential settlement of a centrally loaded, rigid strip foundation on an unsaturated soil with spatially varying values of either preconsolidation stress or porosity. The differential settlement (between the two foundation ends) is calculated at various times during rainfall by way of a coupled, hydro-mechanical, finite-element analysis. The Barcelona basic model describes the mechanical behaviour of the soil, and the van Genuchten relationships describe water retention and permeability. The variability of soil properties is modelled by means of random fields with spatial correlation in the framework of a Monte Carlo simulation. The study demonstrates that the occurrence of rainfall-induced differential settlements can be consistently analysed using concepts of unsaturated soil mechanics and random field theory. Results show that differential settlements can be vastly underpredicted (or even completely missed) if random heterogeneity and partial saturation are not simultaneously considered. The variation of differential settlements and their statistics during the rainfall depend on the magnitude of the applied load and the statistics of soil variability. Moreover, the transient phase of infiltration and a spatial correlation length equal to the width of the foundation pose the highest risk of differential settlement

Single particle multipole expansions from Micromagnetic Tomography

Micromagnetic tomography aims at reconstructing large numbers of individual magnetizations of magnetic particles from combining high-resolution magnetic scanning techniques with micro X-ray computed tomography (microCT). Previous work demonstrated that dipole moments can be robustly inferred, and mathematical analysis showed that the potential field of each particle is uniquely determined. Here, we describe a mathematical procedure to recover higher orders of the magnetic potential of the individual magnetic particles in terms of their spherical harmonic expansions (SHE). We test this approach on data from scanning superconducting quantum interference device microscopy and microCT of a reference sample. For particles with high signal-to-noise ratio of the magnetic scan we demonstrate that SHE up to order $n=3$ can be robustly recovered. This additional level of detail restricts the possible internal magnetization structures of the particles and provides valuable rock magnetic information with respect to their stability and reliability as paleomagnetic remanence carriers. Micromagnetic tomography therefore enables a new approach for detailed rock magnetic studies on large ensembles of individual particles.Comment: 21 pages, 4 Figures, 3 Tables. For Supplemental Material see "Ancillary files" in this arxiv websit

Intensification of single cell storms prior to lightning onset

Single cell storms in the UK can produce lightning, despite apparently only having developed to towering cumulus rather than cumulonimbus. Such marginal thunderstorms still present severe weather hazards but are difficult to identify and predict and therefore provide a warning. Observations from the Met Office radar mosaic and ATDNet (Arrival Time Difference Network) show that these single cell storms demonstrate a characteristic increase in the area of high reflectivity storm core during the 15 minutes prior to the first lightning. By using the Met Office Unified Model to investigate reflectivity development in modelled storms, a microphysical explanation for the observed reflectivity increase is identified. During a rapid reflectivity increase, the updraft area at the melting layer, the peak updraft velocity and the storm graupel mass increase. The three quantities examined are linked to each other and to the generation of charge within the storm. The production of graupel is promoted by the increase in updraft area and charge separation is enhanced by the faster peak updraft velocity. This explains some of the physical differences between single cell storms that produce lightning and apparently similar storm systems which do not. It also provides a new basis with which to predict lightning hazard for marginal storms

Projections of climate change on the behaviour of clays in the UK

The impact of expected climate change on clay cuttings and embankments used for roads and railways is not well understood. Volume sensitive clays respond to seasonal variations in climate through vertical and horizontal displacements. These cause a variety of impacts at differing temporal and spatial scales, for example short term changes such as seasonal displacement of railway tracks or long term progressive failure of the slope. Daily changes in soil moisture content in the surface layers of a clay slope are simulated using a water balance model and expressed as soil moisture deficit and potential for surface runoff. Model results are validated against a 10 year run of field data in the UK. The impacts of anticipated climate change on soil water contents and equivalent pore water pressures are evaluated using stochastic climatic data over the 21st century based on the UK Climate Impacts Programme. Results indicate that recent summers considered to be exceptionally dry are likely to become the average condition later in the 21st century. Although winter rainfall is predicted to increase, average winter runoff will remain the same, although extreme wet events are still likely to occur. The implications for the design and maintenance of clay slopes and embankments are dis-cussed

A spatial view of ensemble spread in convection permitting ensembles

With movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To evaluate spatial forecast differences, the average and standard deviation are taken of the FSS calculated over all ensemble member–member pairs at different scales and lead times. These methods were found to give important information about the ensemble behavior allowing the identification of useful spatial scales, spinup times for the model, and upscale growth of errors and forecast differences. The ensemble spread was found to be highly dependent on the spatial scales considered and the threshold applied to the field. High thresholds picked out localized and intense values that gave large temporal variability in ensemble spread: local processes and undersampling dominate for these thresholds. For lower thresholds the ensemble spread increases with time as differences between the ensemble members upscale. Two convective cases were investigated based on the Met Office United Model run at 2.2-km resolution. Different ensemble types were considered: ensembles produced using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and an ensemble produced using different model physics configurations. Comparison of the MOGREPS and multiphysics ensembles demonstrated the utility of spatial ensemble evaluation techniques for assessing the impact of different perturbation strategies and the need for assessing spread at different, believable, spatial scales

Prenatal maternal effects appear to be insensitive to experimental or natural environmental variation:Environmental effects on egg traits

In many birds, hatching asynchrony is a common phenomenon, primarily driven by patterns of incubation behaviour. However, experimental results in blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) have shown that asynchrony is reduced by intrinsic properties of later eggs that accelerate prenatal development. These intrinsic differences between early and late eggs could be driven by changes in resource availability to females, which are then passively passed onto the egg. Alternatively, it may be due to an anticipatory maternal effect, wherein some signal or resource is actively placed within the egg, which is beneficial to those eggs laid late within the clutch. In order to distinguish between these hypotheses we designed a supplementary feeding experiment, wherein females were provided with food at certain times during the laying phase. This had no discernible effect on development rate, or other egg characteristics, consistent with anticipatory maternal effects. Using a larger dataset we also tested whether natural environmental variation (weather) during egg formation affected maternal investment in eggs. Similarly, egg characteristics were found to be relatively insensitive to the environmental variation, supporting the experimental results.</p

Climatology of size, shape and intensity of precipitation features over Great Britain and Ireland

A climatology of precipitation features (or objects) from the Great Britain and Ireland radar-derived precipitation mosaic from 2006–2015 is constructed, with features defined as contiguous areas of nonzero precipitation rates. Over the ten years, there are 54,811,747 non-unique precipitating features over 100 km2 in area, with a median precipitation-feature area of 249 km2, median major axis length of 29.2 km, median aspect ratio of 2.0, median feature mean precipitation rate of 0.49 mm h-1, and median feature maximum precipitation rate of 2.4 mm h-1. Small-scale precipitating systems are most common, but larger systems exceeding 10,000 km2 contribute close to 70% of the annual precipitation across the study region. Precipitation feature characteristics are sensitive to changes in annual and diurnal environment, with feature intensities peaking during the afternoon in summer and the largest precipitation features occurring during winter. Precipitation intensities less than 5 mm h-1 comprise 97.3% of all precipitation occurrence and contribute 83.6% of the total precipitation over land. Banded-precipitation features (defined as precipitation features with aspect ratio at least 3:1 and major axis length at least 100 km) comprise 3% of all precipitation features by occurrence, but contribute 23.7% of the total precipitation. Mesoscale banded features (defined as banded-precipitation features with major axis length at least 100 km and total area not exceeding 10,000 km2) and mesoscale convective banded features (defined as banded-precipitation features with at least 100 km2 of precipitation rates exceeding 10 mm h-1) are most prevalent in southwestern England with mesoscale convective banded features contributing up to 2% of precipitation

Near-zero humidities on Ben Nevis, Scotland, revealed by pioneering 19th-century observers and modern volunteers

The weather on Ben Nevis – the highest mountain in the British Isles, 1345 m AMSL – sometimes shows episodes of remarkably low relative humidity (RH) with few precedents anywhere else in the British Isles. We are able to quantify this for the first time using a high-quality series of hourly dry- and wet-bulb observations, made on the summit. These observations were made between 1883 and 1904, but have only just become available to modern science, thanks to thousands of volunteers who worked to rescue this unique and exemplary dataset from published volumes. Careful examination and analysis of the original observations using modern psychrometric theory revealed several occasions where we are confident that the summit RH fell close to zero as a result of anticyclonic subsidence. Three case histories are examined in some detail. The nineteenth-century Ben Nevis humidity records are also compared with contemporary automatic weather station (AWS) data from two high-altitude Scottish mountain sites

Quantifying the recent expansion of native invasive rush species in a UK upland environment

Rushes, such as soft rush (Juncus effusus L.), hard rush (Juncus inflexus L.) and compact rush (Juncus conglomeratus L.) have become problem species within upland grasslands across the UK and the coastal grasslands of western Norway. Indeed, being largely unpalatable to livestock and having a vigorous reproductive ecology means that they can rapidly come to dominate swards. However, rush dominance results in a reduction in grassland biodiversity and farm productivity. Anecdotal evidence from the UK suggests that rush cover within marginal upland grasslands has increased considerably in recent decades. Yet, there is currently no published evidence to support this observation. Here, we use recent and historical Google Earth imagery to measure changes in rush frequency over a 13-year period within four survey years: 2005, 2009, 2015 and 2018. During each survey year, we quantified rush presence or absence using a series of quadrats located within 300 upland grassland plots in the West Pennine Moors, UK. Data were analysed in two stages, first, by calculating mean rush frequencies per sample year using all the available plot-year combinations (the full dataset), and second by examining 25 differences in rush frequency using only the plots for which rush frequency data were available in every sample year (the continuous dataset). The full dataset indicated that rush frequency has increased by 82% between 2005 and 2018. Similarly, the continuous dataset suggested that rush frequency has increased by 174% over the same period, with the increases in frequency being statistically significant (P<0.05) between 2005-2018 and 2009-2018. We discuss the potential drivers of rush expansion in the West Pennine Moors, the ecological and agronomic implications of grassland rush infestations, and priorities for future research