Corrigendum to "Evaluating the ocean biogeochemical components of Earth system models using atmospheric potential oxygen and ocean color data" (Biogeosciences, 12, 193–208, 2015)

No abstract available

Evaluating CMIP5 ocean biogeochemistry and Southern Ocean carbon uptake using atmospheric potential oxygen: Present-day performance and future projection

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associated with ocean acidification. The models with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100

The ECCO-Darwin Data-Assimilative Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Model: Estimates of Seasonal to Multidecadal Surface Ocean \u3cem\u3ep\u3c/em\u3eCO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e and Air-Sea CO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e Flux

Quantifying variability in the ocean carbon sink remains problematic due to sparse observations and spatiotemporal variability in surface ocean pCO2. To address this challenge, we have updated and improved ECCO-Darwin, a global ocean biogeochemistry model that assimilates both physical and biogeochemical observations. The model consists of an adjoint-based ocean circulation estimate from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium and an ecosystem model developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Darwin Project. In addition to the data-constrained ECCO physics, a Green\u27s function approach is used to optimize the biogeochemistry by adjusting initial conditions and six biogeochemical parameters. Over seasonal to multidecadal timescales (1995–2017), ECCO-Darwin exhibits broad-scale consistency with observed surface ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux reconstructions in most biomes, particularly in the subtropical and equatorial regions. The largest differences between CO2 uptake occur in subpolar seasonally stratified biomes, where ECCO-Darwin results in stronger winter uptake. Compared to the Global Carbon Project OBMs, ECCO-Darwin has a time-mean global ocean CO2 sink (2.47 ± 0.50 Pg C year−1) and interannual variability that are more consistent with interpolation-based products. Compared to interpolation-based methods, ECCO-Darwin is less sensitive to sparse and irregularly sampled observations. Thus, ECCO-Darwin provides a basis for identifying and predicting the consequences of natural and anthropogenic perturbations to the ocean carbon cycle, as well as the climate-related sensitivity of marine ecosystems. Our study further highlights the importance of physically consistent, property-conserving reconstructions, as are provided by ECCO, for ocean biogeochemistry studies

An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Tellus B 62 (2010): 455-474, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00497.x.This study used several model-based tools to analyze the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr-1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr-1. Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr-1, which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH4. Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH4 emissions is much greater than the CO2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.This study was supported, in part, by the NSF Arctic System Science Program as part of the Arctic Carbon Cycle Synthesis Project (ARC-0531047, 0531082, 0531119, and 0554811)

Modelling the growth of atmospheric nitrous oxide using a global hierarchical inversion

Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and ozone-depleting substance, whose atmospheric abundance has risen throughout the contemporary record. In this work, we carry out the first global hierarchical Bayesian inversion to solve for nitrous oxide emissions, which includes prior emissions with truncated Gaussian distributions and Gaussian model errors, in order to examine the drivers of the atmospheric surface growth rate. We show that both emissions and climatic variability are key drivers of variations in the surface nitrous oxide growth rate between 2011 and 2020. We derive increasing global nitrous oxide emissions, which are mainly driven by emissions between 0 and 30∘ N, with the highest emissions recorded in 2020. Our mean global total emissions for 2011–2020 of 17.2 (16.7–17.7 at the 95 % credible intervals) Tg N yr−1, comprising of 12.0 (11.2–12.8) Tg N yr−1 from land and 5.2 (4.5–5.9) Tg N yr−1 from ocean, agrees well with previous studies, but we find that emissions are poorly constrained for some regions of the world, particularly for the oceans. The prior emissions used in this and other previous work exhibit a seasonal cycle in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere that is out of phase with the posterior solution, and there is a substantial zonal redistribution of emissions from the prior to the posterior. Correctly characterizing the uncertainties in the system, for example in the prior emission fields, is crucial for deriving posterior fluxes that are consistent with observations. In this hierarchical inversion, the model-measurement discrepancy and the prior flux uncertainty are informed by the data, rather than solely through “expert judgement”. We show cases where this framework provides different plausible adjustments to the prior fluxes compared to inversions using widely adopted, fixed uncertainty constraints.</p

Modelling the growth of atmospheric nitrous oxide using a global hierarchical inversion

Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and ozone-depleting substance, whose atmospheric abundance has risen throughout the contemporary record. In this work, we carry out the first global hierarchical Bayesian inversion to solve for nitrous oxide emissions, which includes prior emissions with truncated Gaussian distributions and Gaussian model errors, in order to examine the drivers of the atmospheric surface growth rate. We show that both emissions and climatic variability are key drivers of variations in the surface nitrous oxide growth rate between 2011 and 2020. We derive increasing global nitrous oxide emissions, which are mainly driven by emissions between 0 and 30∘ N, with the highest emissions recorded in 2020. Our mean global total emissions for 2011–2020 of 17.2 (16.7–17.7 at the 95 % credible intervals) Tg N yr−1, comprising of 12.0 (11.2–12.8) Tg N yr−1 from land and 5.2 (4.5–5.9) Tg N yr−1 from ocean, agrees well with previous studies, but we find that emissions are poorly constrained for some regions of the world, particularly for the oceans. The prior emissions used in this and other previous work exhibit a seasonal cycle in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere that is out of phase with the posterior solution, and there is a substantial zonal redistribution of emissions from the prior to the posterior. Correctly characterizing the uncertainties in the system, for example in the prior emission fields, is crucial for deriving posterior fluxes that are consistent with observations. In this hierarchical inversion, the model-measurement discrepancy and the prior flux uncertainty are informed by the data, rather than solely through “expert judgement”. We show cases where this framework provides different plausible adjustments to the prior fluxes compared to inversions using widely adopted, fixed uncertainty constraints.</p

An assessment of the Atlantic and Arctic sea–air CO2 fluxes, 1990–2009

© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013): 607-627, doi:10.5194/bg-10-607-2013.The Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are critical components of the global carbon cycle. Here we quantify the net sea–air CO2 flux, for the first time, across different methodologies for consistent time and space scales for the Atlantic and Arctic basins. We present the long-term mean, seasonal cycle, interannual variability and trends in sea–air CO2 flux for the period 1990 to 2009, and assign an uncertainty to each. We use regional cuts from global observations and modeling products, specifically a pCO2-based CO2 flux climatology, flux estimates from the inversion of oceanic and atmospheric data, and results from six ocean biogeochemical models. Additionally, we use basin-wide flux estimates from surface ocean pCO2 observations based on two distinct methodologies. Our estimate of the contemporary sea–air flux of CO2 (sum of anthropogenic and natural components) by the Atlantic between 40° S and 79° N is −0.49 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1, and by the Arctic it is −0.12 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1, leading to a combined sea–air flux of −0.61 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades (negative reflects ocean uptake). We do find broad agreement amongst methodologies with respect to the seasonal cycle in the subtropics of both hemispheres, but not elsewhere. Agreement with respect to detailed signals of interannual variability is poor, and correlations to the North Atlantic Oscillation are weaker in the North Atlantic and Arctic than in the equatorial region and southern subtropics. Linear trends for 1995 to 2009 indicate increased uptake and generally correspond between methodologies in the North Atlantic, but there is disagreement amongst methodologies in the equatorial region and southern subtropics.U. Schuster has been supported by EU grants IP 511176-2 (CARBOOCEAN), 212196 (COCOS), and 264879 (CARBOCHANGE), and UK NERC grant NE/H017046/1 (UKOARP). G. A. McKinley and A. Fay thank NASA for support (NNX08AR68G, NNX11AF53G). P. Landsch¨utzer has been supported by EU grant 238366 (GREENCYCLESII). N. Metzl acknowledges the French national funding program LEFE/INSU. Support for N. Gruber has been provided by EU grants 264879 (CARBOCHANGE) and 283080 (GEO-CARBON) S. Doney acknowledges support from NOAA (NOAA-NA07OAR4310098). T. Takahashi is supported by NOAA (NAO80AR4320754)