High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and copeptin assays to improve diagnostic accuracy of exercise stress test in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

Background: The average diagnostic sensitivity of exercise stress tests (ESTs) is lower than that of other non-invasive cardiac stress tests. The aim of the study was to examine whether high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) or copeptin concentrations rise in response to inducible myocardial ischaemia and may improve the diagnostic accuracy of ESTs. Methods and results: An EST was performed stepwise on a bicycle ergometer by 383 consecutive patients with suspected or progression of coronary artery disease (CAD). In addition venous blood samples for measurement of hs-cTnT and copeptin were collected prior to EST, at peak exercise, and 4 h after EST. Coronary angiography was assessed for all patients. Patients with significant CAD (n=224) were more likely to be male and older compared to patients with non-significant CAD (n=169). Positive EST was documented in 125 (55.8%) patients with significant CAD and in 69 (43.4%) patients with non-significant CAD. Copeptin and hs-cTnT concentrations at baseline were higher in patients with significant CAD (copeptin: 10.8 pmol/l (interquartile range (IQR) 8.1–15.6) vs 9.4 pmol/l (IQR 7.1–13.9); p=0.04; hs-cTnT: 3.0 ng/l (IQR <3.0–5.4) vs <3.0 ng/l (IQR <3.0); p=0.006). Hs-cTnT improved sensitivity (61.6% vs 55.8%), specificity (67.7% vs 56.6%) and the positive predictive value (PPV) (72.3% vs 64.4%) and negative (55.2% vs 47.6%) predictive value (NPV) of EST. Copeptin could not improve sensitivity (55.4% vs 55.8%) and reduced specificity, PPV and NPV. Conclusions: The measurement of hs-cTnT during EST improves sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. In contrast, measurement of copeptin does not improve diagnostic sensitivity and reduces specificity

Social-economic drivers in (political) TAC setting decisions

Sustainable use of marine resources, as targeted by Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM), is a highly ranked policy goal. However, many marine fish stocks are still overused, challenging sustainability goals. Reasons for this policy failure are disputed and they might be manifold, including economic, institutional, and social drivers. Here, we use Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) to empirically determine and quantify the importance of interacting ecological, economic, and social drivers in a political decision making process, i.e. the setting of annual Total Allowable Catch (TAC) limits. GAMs allow non linear relationships between response and explanatory variables and due to their flexibility have successfully been applied to investigate ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use this modeling approach in a novel way to quantify social-economic-ecological feed-backs on policy decisions. European fisheries policy agreed in most cases to TACs higher than scientifically advised. We recorded this deviation for all managed European fish stocks for the time-series 1987-2014. Additionally, we make use of available time-series of socio-economic and ecological variables potentially influencing the decision, including national unemployment rates, stock status, economic growth rates, and employment in fisheries. We show that political decisions on TACs are not only driven by scientific advice on the ecological state of the stock, but that socio-economic variables have a significant effect on TACs – however not related to sound scientific advice. We conclude that scientific advice for a successful implementation of EBMF will have to address socio- economic driving forces more explicitly

Response of the meso- and macro-zooplankton community to long-term environmental changes in the southern North Sea

Abstract The North Sea (NS) is changing rapidly. Temporal variations in fishing intensity and eutrophic conditions, along with the ongoing impact of climate change, act in synergy resulting in modifications in marine communities. Although zooplankton has been extensively investigated, studies often ignore the large-sized meso- and macro-zooplankton (&amp;gt;500 µm), including holoplankton and meroplankton taxa. Here, we examined changes in abundances and community structure of these organisms between 1975 and 2018, using univariate and multivariate analysis, at different taxonomic levels. Abrupt changes in the abundances of (sub)communities occurred during different time periods and resulted in a significant restructuration of the entire community in 2006. These changes were consistent with the regime shifts reported in the NS and were a consequence of the environmental pressures on the whole community or on specific subcommunities. In the long term, the community shifted from higher abundances of hydrozoans and holoplankton taxa to an increasing abundance of decapods. Furthermore, we reveal the environmental variables that most explain the variability in the community dynamics, highlighting the importance of temperature and top-down processes. Our study underlines the relevance of investigations at different taxonomic levels, which elucidates how distinct responses to environmental changes ultimately shape the entire community structure.</jats:p

Environmental controls of billfish species in the Indian Ocean and implications for their management and conservation

Abstract Background and aim Billfish are epipelagic marine predators facing increasing pressures such as overfishing and rising global temperatures. Overfishing is a major concern, as they are caught by industrial longline fishers targeting tuna. Billfish are targeted by multiple fishing sectors, which provides food, socio-economic and cultural benefits. To support effective billfish management and conservation, it is essential to understand their spatial distribution and the environmental factors that may influence it. Location The focus of this study is the Indian Ocean (IO), where there are gaps in understanding the interactions between fisheries and billfish distribution. Three of six billfish species are at risk from overfishing. Therefore, determining their distribution is crucial to their management and conservation. Methods Using Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS) occurrence data, Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) catch data, and environmental covariates, we applied species distribution models to investigate the spatial extent of the realized niches of six billfish species in the IO. We also determined the role and relative importance of environmental drivers. Moreover, we evaluated the association between species’ spatial distribution and the fishing effort distribution. Results We found niche partitioning and overlap among the six species identified spatial distribution, with higher species richness in the northern region of the IO and off the East coast of Africa. Temperature, mixed layer depth and salinity were identified as the most important predictors of species distribution, with moderately warm and stable environments preferred by most billfish species. Areas with high species richness and high fishing effort overlap were primarily found in the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ). In contrast, areas with high species diversity richness and low fishing effort were found mainly in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Main conclusion Spatial overlap between fishing effort and billfish projected distribution suggests inadvertent fishing pressure on billfish populations as they are caught together with targeted tuna. Spatial distribution transcends maritime zones, reinforcing a need to formulate effective management policies for marine areas beyond national jurisdictions

Political overfishing: Social-economic drivers in TAC setting decisions

Sustainable use of marine resources, as targeted by Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM), is a highly ranked policy goal. However, many marine fish stocks are still overused, challenging sustainability goals. Reasons for this policy failure are disputed and they might be manifold, including economic, institutional, and social drivers. We use Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to empirically determine and quantify the importance of interacting ecological, economic, and social drivers in a political decision making process, i.e. the setting of annual Total Allowable Catch (TAC) limits. GAMs allow non linear relationships between response and explanatory variables and due to their flexibility have successfully been applied to investigate ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use this modeling approach in a novel way to quantify social-economic-ecological feed-backs on policy decisions. European fisheries policy agreed in most cases to TACs higher than scientifically advised. We recorded this deviation for all managed European fish stocks for the time-series 1987-2013. Additionally, we make use of available time-series of socio-economic and ecological variables potentially influencing the decision, including national unemployment rates, stock status, economic growth rates, and employment in fisheries. We show that political decisions on TACs are not only driven by scientific advice on the ecological state of the stock, but that socio-economic variables have a significant effect on TACs – however not related to sound scientific advice. We conclude that scientific advice for a successful implementation of EBFM will have to address socio-economic driving forces more explicitly

Recruitment of Baltic cod and sprat stocks: identification of critical life stages and incorporation of enviromental variability into stock-recruitment relationships

The recruitment processes of Baltic cod and sprat were analysed and critical periods were identified by addressing the major impact factors on individual early life history stages separately and relating observed abundance data between successive stages. For cod, recruitment appeared to be dependent on egg survival, with low oxygen concentration in dwelling depths and predation by clupeids as the major causes for egg mortality. Surviving egg production and larval abundance were weakly correlated, whereas larval abundance was significantly related to year class strength. This indicated that the period between the late egg and the early larval stage is critical for cod recruitment. A potential variable identified to affect this life stage was prey availability for larvae. For sprat, early and late egg stage production as well as late egg stage production and larval abundance were significantly related. However, year class strength was largely independent of larval abundance. Thus, the period between the late larval and early juvenile stage appeared to be critical for sprat recruitment. Potential variables identified to affect this life stage were ambient temperature and wind stress. Environmental factors showing statistically significant covariance with the survival of one of these critical life stages were incorporated into stock-recruitment models for individual spawning areas separately and for the Central Baltic combined

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: Management of Baltic cod stock requires an ecosystem approach

In a recent 'As We See It' article, Cardinale & Svedang (2011; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 425:297-301) used the example of the Eastern Baltic (EB) cod stock to argue that the concept of ecosystem regime shifts, especially the potential existence of alternative stable states (or dynamic regimes), blurs the fact that human exploitation (i.e. fishing) is the strongest impact on marine ecosystems. They further concluded that single-species approaches to resource management are functioning and that ecosystem-based approaches are not necessary. We (1) argue that the recent increase in the EB cod stock is inherently uncertain, (2) discuss the critique of the regime shift concept, and (3) describe why the EB cod stock dynamics demonstrates the need for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Spatial structuring of Mediterranean fisheries landings in relation to their seasonal and long-term fluctuations

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData availability: Data will be made available on request.The Western Mediterranean fisheries significantly contribute to the regional blue economy, despite evidence of ongoing, widespread overexploitation of stocks. Understanding the spatial distribution and population dynamics of species is crucial for comprehending fisheries dynamics combining local and regional scales, although the underlying processes are often neglected. In this study, we aimed to (i) evaluate the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations of crustacean, cephalopod, and fish populations in the Western Mediterranean, (ii) determine whether these fluctuations are driven by the spatial structure of the fisheries or synchronic species fluctuations, and (iii) compare groupings according to the individual species and life history-based groups. We used dynamic factor analysis to detect underlying patterns in a Landing Per Unit Effort (LPUE) time series (2009-2020) for 23 commercially important species and 33 ports in the Western Mediterranean. To verify the spatial structure of ports and species groupings we investigated the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations and common LPUE trends that exhibit non-homogeneous and species-specific trends, highlighting the importance of life history, environmental and demographic preferences. Long-term trends revealed spatial segregation with a north-south gradient, demonstrating complex population structures of Western Mediterranean resources. Seasonal patterns exhibited a varying spatial aggregation based on species-port combinations. These findings can inform the Common Fishery Policy on gaps challenging their regionalisation objectives in the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight the need for a nuanced and flexible approach and a better understanding of sub-regional processes for effective management and conservation - a current challenge for global fisheries. Our LPUE approach provides insight into population dynamics and changes in regional fisheries, relevant beyond the Mediterranean Sea