Model Selection for Predicting the Return Time from Night Setback

Night setback is a common strategy used to reduce energy use in buildings. It involves increasing the cooling setpoint and decreasing the heating setpoint in a zone during unoccupied periods. To ensure occupant comfort and maximize energy savings, the zone temperature must be returned to the range defined by the occupied cooling and heating setpoints at occupancy, but not before. The time required to cool down or warm up a zone from a night setback condition is referred to as the return time and algorithms for predicting return time are commonly referred to as optimal start algorithms. Optimal start algorithms generally employ a model for predicting return time. This study describes the selection of separate return time models for cooling (i.e., a model for predicting the return time when cooling is required) and heating from 57 candidates. The following model forms were considered: τ = f (Tf - Ti), τ = f ((Tf - Ti), u), τ = f ((Tf - Ti), Tout), and τ = f ((Tf - Ti), u, Tout) where τ is the return time, Tf is the zone temperature at the end of the optimal start period, Ti is the zone temperature at the beginning of the optimal start period, u is exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) of the zone cooling or heating demand at the beginning of the optimal start period, and Tout is the outdoor air temperature at the beginning of the optimal start period. Computer simulations were used to generate year-long data sets relating return time to the model inputs. The simulations considered the influence of climate, building mass, controller tuning, zone orientation, and the unoccupied control strategy on the return time. In all, 140 cooling data sets and 104 heating data sets were generated. For each data set, least squares regression was performed to determine the parameters for each of the 57 models considered. The performance of each model was quantified using the average root mean square prediction error across all simulations. The study revealed that the best models for predicting return time use the zone temperature change and the EWMA of the zone cooling or heating demand as inputs. The EWMA of the zone cooling or heating demand provides an indication of the recent history of the cooling or heating load on a zone and can account for intermittent cooling or heating that is required to keep the zone temperature within the bounds of the unoccupied setpoints. Notably, outdoor air temperature, a common input in optimal start algorithms, is not used. To the best of the authors\u27 knowledge, zone cooling and heating demand have not been previously used as an input in an optimal start algorithm. The full paper will provide a detailed description of the simulations and model comparison undertaken in this study

Two-dimensional control of field-driven magnetic bubble movement using Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interactions

The field-induced asymmetric growth of magnetic bubble domains in Pt/Co/Pt out-of-plane magnetized films with Dzyaloshinskii–Moriya interactions (DMI) is used to control the lateral displacement of bubbles. We demonstrate experimentally that we can laterally translate bubbles away from their nucleation site by applying a series of alternating 3-dimensional field pulses with a controlled relative sign between the out-of-plane and in-plane components. Using magneto optical Kerr effect imaging, the domain wall velocity as a function of applied field strength was measured from which the magnitude of the DMI field was estimated.This work was supported by the European Community under the Seventh Framework Programme '3SPIN' (ERC contract 247368) and by EMRP JRP EXL04 SpinCal. The EMRP is jointly funded by the EMRP participating countries within EURAMET and the EU.This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from AIP at http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/apl/106/2/10.1063/1.4905600

DMI Fungicides on Apples: Survival of the Apple Scab Pathogen in Sprayed Leaves, Late-Season Scab, and Sustainability of DMI Use in IPM Programs

NYS IPM Type: Project ReportDMI fungicides such as Rubigan and Nova represent a class of widely used and highly effective pest management tools in New York's apple IPM programs. Our recent research has indicated some potentially serious problems attending the continued use of DMI fungicides

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Mental health consultations in a prison population: a descriptive study

BACKGROUND: The psychiatric morbidity among prison inmates is substantially higher than in the general population. We do, however, have insufficient knowledge about the extent of psychiatric treatment provided in our prisons. The aim of the present study was to give a comprehensive description of all non-pharmacological interventions provided by the psychiatric health services to a stratified sample of prison inmates. METHODS: Six medium/large prisons (n = 928) representing 1/3 of the Norwegian prison population and with female and preventive detention inmates over-sampled, were investigated cross-sectionally. All non-pharmacological psychiatric interventions, excluding pure correctional programs, were recorded. Those receiving interventions were investigated further and compared to the remaining prison population. RESULTS: A total of 230 of the 928 inmates (25 %) had some form of psychiatric intervention: 184 (20 %) were in individual psychotherapy, in addition 40 (4 %) received ad hoc interventions during the registration week. Group therapy was infrequent (1 %). The psychotherapies were most often of a supportive (62 %) or behavioural-cognitive (26 %) nature. Dynamic, insight-oriented psychotherapies were infrequent (8 %). Concurrent psychopharmacological treatment was prevalent (52 %). Gender and age did not correlate with psychiatric interventions, whereas prisoner category (remanded, sentenced, or preventive detention) did (p < 0.001). Most inmates had a number of defined problem areas, with substance use, depression, anxiety, and personality disorders most prevalent. Three percent of all inmates were treated for a psychotic disorder. Remand prisoners averaged 14 sessions per week per 100 inmates, while sentenced inmates and those on preventive detention averaged 22 and 25 sessions per week per 100 inmates, respectively. Five out of six psychiatric health services estimated the inmates' psychiatric therapy needs as adequately met, both overall and in the majority of individual cases. CONCLUSION: Our results pertain only to prisons with adequate primary and mental health services and effective diversion from prison of individuals with serious mental disorders. Given these important limitations, we do propose that the service estimates found may serve as a rough guideline to the minimum number of sessions a prison's psychiatric health services should be able to fulfil in order to serve the inmates psychiatric needs. The results rely on the specialist services' own estimates only. Future studies should take other important informants, including the inmates themselves, into consideration

Partnership and Capacity Building of Local Governance

Partnership is about sharing of power, responsibility and achievements. According to the World Bank Public Private Partnership (PPP) promoting group, ―partnership refer to informal and shortterm engagements of non-governmental organizations, the private sector and/or government agencies that join forces for a shared objective; to more formal, but still short-term private sector engagements for the provision of specific services, for example, annual outsourcing arrangements for janitorial services for a school or operations of the school cafeteria; to more complex contractual arrangements, such as build, operate, transfer regimes, where the private sector takes on considerable risk and remains engaged long term; or to full privatizations‖ (World Bank Group 2014, 29).© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Partnerships for the Goals. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71067-9_21-1.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

A review of advanced air distribution methods - theory, practice, limitations and solutions

Ventilation and air distribution methods are important for indoor thermal environments and air quality. Effective distribution of airflow for indoor built environments with the aim of simultaneously offsetting thermal and ventilation loads in an energy efficient manner has been the research focus in the past several decades. Based on airflow characteristics, ventilation methods can be categorized as fully mixed or non-uniform. Non-uniform methods can be further divided into piston, stratified and task zone ventilation. In this paper, the theory, performance, practical applications, limitations and solutions pertaining to ventilation and air distribution methods are critically reviewed. Since many ventilation methods are buoyancy driving that confines their use for heating mode, some methods suitable for heating are discussed. Furthermore, measuring and evaluating methods for ventilation and air distribution are also discussed to give a comprehensive framework of the review

Forecasts of Grape Downy Mildew for New York and Pennsylvania Regional IPM Programs

NYS IPM Type: Project ReportGrape downy mildew is a destructive disease of both wine and processing grapes in New York and Pennsylvania. Its occurrence is sporadic, and seemingly unpredictable. We developed a computer model (DMCAST) which forecasts both initial infection, and cycles of secondary disease development. Our objectives were (1) to simplify the original DMCAST (which was a model designed for research) for practical use in regional IPM programs, and (2) to evaluate the utility of model forecasts of downy mildew in a management program for multiple diseases

A Practical Model for the Control of Grapevine Powdery Mildew in the Northeast Region

Powdery mildew causes extensive losses at the farm level.  Loss of the most highly-effective fungicides to resistance has caused a shift towards “soft” and/or organically-acceptable options.  Maintaining control with innately less-effective materials will require near-perfect timing with respect to seasonal changes in host susceptibility and environmental conditions.  Our objective was to begin the development of a forecasting system that will answer questions (identified by stakeholders themselves) that are commercially relevant to decisions made in disease management.  In 2006, we found an important piece of the puzzle: the fungus may occasionally discharge nearly all of it's overwintering spores while the vines are still dormant.  The next step will be to better forecast this phenomenon so we can to offer news of this significant event to grape growers