Non-linear retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ since the Little Ice Age controlled by geometry

Rapid acceleration and retreat of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers during the last two decades have initiated questions on the trigger and processes governing observed changes. Destabilization of these glaciers coincides with atmosphere and ocean warming, which broadly has been used to explain the rapid changes. To assess the relative role of external forcing versus fjord geometry, we investigate the retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ in West Greenland, where margin positions exist since the Little Ice Age maximum in 1850. We use a one-dimensional ice flow model and isolate geometric effects on the retreat using a linear increase in external forcing. We find that the observed retreat of 43 km from 1850 until 2014 can only be simulated when multiple forcing parameters – such as hydrofracturing, submarine melt and frontal buttressing by sea ice – are changed simultaneously. Surface mass balance, in contrast, has a negligible effect. While changing external forcing initiates retreat, fjord geometry controls the retreat pattern. Basal and lateral topography govern shifts from temporary stabilization to rapid retreat, resulting in a highly non-linear glacier response. For example, we simulate a disintegration of a 15 km long floating tongue within one model year, which dislodges the grounding line onto the next pinning point. The retreat pattern loses complexity and becomes linear when we artificially straighten the glacier walls and bed, confirming the topographic controls. For real complex fjord systems such as Jakobshavn Isbræ, geometric pinning points predetermine grounding line stabilization and may therefore be used as a proxy for moraine build-up. Also, we find that after decades of stability and with constant external forcing, grounding lines may retreat rapidly without any trigger. This means that past changes may precondition marine-terminating glaciers to reach tipping-points, and that retreat can occur without additional climate warming. Present-day changes and future projections can therefore not be viewed in isolation of historic retreat.submittedVersio

The key role of topography in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 yr before present) was a period of low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, when vast ice sheets covered large parts of North America and Europe. Paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling studies suggest that the atmospheric circulation was substantially altered compared to today, both in terms of its mean state and its variability. Here we present a suite of coupled model simulations designed to investigate both the separate and combined influences of the main LGM boundary condition changes (greenhouse gases, ice sheet topography and ice sheet albedo) on the mean state and variability of the atmospheric circulation as represented by sea level pressure (SLP) and 200-hPa zonal wind in the North Atlantic sector. We find that ice sheet topography accounts for most of the simulated changes during the LGM. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet albedo affect the SLP gradient in the North Atlantic, but the overall placement of high and low pressure centers is controlled by topography. Additional analysis shows that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and sea ice edge position do not substantially influence the pattern of the climatological-mean SLP field, SLP variability or the position of the North Atlantic jet in the LGM

Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ since the Little Ice Age controlled by geometry

Rapid retreat of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers coincides with regional warming trends, which have broadly been used to explain these rapid changes. However, outlet glaciers within similar climate regimes experience widely contrasting retreat patterns, suggesting that the local fjord geometry could be an important additional factor. To assess the relative role of climate and fjord geometry, we use the retreat history of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, since the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum in 1850 as a baseline for the parameterization of a depth- and width-integrated ice flow model. The impact of fjord geometry is isolated by using a linearly increasing climate forcing since the LIA and testing a range of simplified geometries.We find that the total length of retreat is determined by external factors – such as hydrofracturing, submarine melt and buttressing by sea ice – whereas the retreat pattern is governed by the fjord geometry. Narrow and shallow areas provide pinning points and cause delayed but rapid retreat without additional climate warming, after decades of grounding line stability. We suggest that these geometric pinning points may be used to locate potential sites for moraine formation and to predict the long-term response of the glacier. As a consequence, to assess the impact of climate on the retreat history of a glacier, each system has to be analyzed with knowledge of its historic retreat and the local fjord geometry.</p

Eemian Greenland SMB strongly sensitive to model choice

Understanding the behavior of the Greenland ice sheet in a warmer climate, and particularly its surface mass balance (SMB), is important for assessing Greenland's potential contribution to future sea level rise. The Eemian interglacial period, the most recent warmer-than-present period in Earth's history approximately 125&thinsp;000 years ago, provides an analogue for a warm summer climate over Greenland. The Eemian is characterized by a positive Northern Hemisphere summer insolation anomaly, which complicates Eemian SMB calculations based on positive degree day estimates. In this study, we use Eemian global and regional climate simulations in combination with three types of SMB models – a simple positive degree day, an intermediate complexity, and a full surface energy balance model – to evaluate the importance of regional climate and model complexity for estimates of Greenland's SMB. We find that all SMB models perform well under the relatively cool pre-industrial and late Eemian. For the relatively warm early Eemian, the differences between SMB models are large, which is associated with whether insolation is included in the respective models. For all simulated time slices, there is a systematic difference between globally and regionally forced SMB models, due to the different representation of the regional climate over Greenland. We conclude that both the resolution of the simulated climate as well as the method used to estimate the SMB are important for an accurate simulation of Greenland's SMB. Whether model resolution or the SMB method is most important depends on the climate state and in particular the prevailing insolation pattern. We suggest that future Eemian climate model intercomparison studies should include SMB estimates and a scheme to capture SMB uncertainties.</p

A first chronology for the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) over the Holocene and last glacial termination

This paper provides the first chronology for the deep ice core from the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) over the Holocene and the late last glacial period. We rely mainly on volcanic events and common peak patterns recorded by dielectric profiling (DEP) and electrical conductivity measurement (ECM) for the synchronization between the EGRIP, North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) and North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice cores in Greenland. We transfer the annual-layer-counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) from the NGRIP core to the EGRIP ice core by means of 381 match points, typically spaced less than 50 years apart. The NEEM ice core has previously been dated in a similar way and is only included to support the match-point identification. We name our EGRIP timescale GICC05-EGRIP-1. Over the uppermost 1383.84 m, we establish a depth–age relationship dating back to 14 967 years b2k (years before the year 2000 CE). Tephra horizons provide an independent validation of our match points. In addition, we compare the ratio of the annual layer thickness between ice cores in between the match points to assess our results in view of the different ice-flow patterns and accumulation regimes of the different periods and geographical regions. For the next years, this initial timescale will be the basis for climatic reconstructions from EGRIP high-resolution proxy data sets, e.g. stable water isotopes, chemical impurity or dust records

Detection of ice core particles via deep neural networks

Insoluble particles in ice cores record signatures of past climate parameters like vegetation, volcanic activity or aridity. Their analytical detection depends on intensive bench microscopy investigation and requires dedicated sample preparation steps. Both are laborious, require in-depth knowledge and often restrict sampling strategies. To help overcome these limitations, we present a framework based on Flow Imaging Microscopy coupled to a deep neural network for autonomous image classification of ice core particles. We train the network to classify 7 commonly found classes: mineral dust, felsic and basaltic volcanic ash (tephra), three species of pollen (Corylus avellana, Quercus robur, Quercus suber) and contamination particles that may be introduced onto the ice core surface during core handling operations. The trained network achieves 96.8 % classification accuracy at test time. We present the system’s potentials and limitations with respect to the detection of mineral dust, pollen grains and tephra shards, using both controlled materials and real ice core samples. The methodology requires little sample material, is non destructive, fully reproducible and does not require any sample preparation step. The presented framework can bolster research in the field, by cutting down processing time, supporting human-operated microscopy and further unlocking the paleoclimate potential of ice core records by providing the opportunity to identify an array of ice core particles. Suggestions for an improved system to be deployed within a continuous flow analysis workflow are also presented

Detection of ice core particles via deep neural networks

Insoluble particles in ice cores record signatures of past climate parameters like vegetation dynamics, volcanic activity, and aridity. For some of them, the analytical detection relies on intensive bench microscopy investigation and requires dedicated sample preparation steps. Both are laborious, require in-depth knowledge, and often restrict sampling strategies. To help overcome these limitations, we present a framework based on flow imaging microscopy coupled to a deep neural network for autonomous image classification of ice core particles. We train the network to classify seven commonly found classes, namely mineral dust, felsic and mafic (basaltic) volcanic ash grains (tephra), three species of pollen (Corylus avellana, Quercus robur, Quercus suber), and contamination particles that may be introduced onto the ice core surface during core handling operations. The trained network achieves 96.8 % classification accuracy at test time. We present the system's potential and its limitations with respect to the detection of mineral dust, pollen grains, and tephra shards, using both controlled materials and real ice core samples. The methodology requires little sample material, is non-destructive, fully reproducible, and does not require any sample preparation procedures. The presented framework can bolster research in the field by cutting down processing time, supporting human-operated microscopy, and further unlocking the paleoclimate potential of ice core records by providing the opportunity to identify an array of ice core particles. Suggestions for an improved system to be deployed within a continuous flow analysis workflow are also presented

Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean:A Data-Model Comparison

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: Results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

Abstract. The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization. </jats:p

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Not Unlike Modern

In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), eight state-of-the-art coupled climate models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), northward ocean heat transport and ocean stratification simulated with these models. None of the models participating in PlioMIP simulates a strong mid-Pliocene AMOC as suggested by earlier proxy studies. Rather, there is no consistent increase in AMOC maximum among the PlioMIP models. The only consistent change in AMOC is a shoaling of the overturning cell in the Atlantic, and a reduced influence of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at depth in the basin. Furthermore, the simulated mid-Pliocene Atlantic northward heat transport is similar to the pre-industrial. These simulations demonstrate that the reconstructed high-latitude mid-Pliocene warming can not be explained as a direct response to an intensification of AMOC and concomitant increase in northward ocean heat transport by the Atlantic