The structural architecture of seismogenic faults, Sierra Nevada, California; implications for earthquake rupture processes

Earthquake ruptures along tectonically active faults nucleate predominantly at depths of 5 to 12km in the crust, so the portions of faults that slip in these events cannot be directly observed. The geometry and composition of seismogenic faults controls the nucleation, propagation and termination of the earthquake rupture process. This study aims to place constraints on the geometry and composition of seismogenic faults by examining ancient faults exhumed from the depths at which earthquakes are observed to nucleate. Faults exposed in the Sierra Nevada, California, show that the internal architecture of earthquake faults is heterogeneous at a variety of scales. Field and microstructural observations are used to describe in detail the architecture of two pseudotachylyte-bearing fault systems in the Granite Pass region of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park; the Granite Pass fault (GPF) and associated faults, and the Glacier Lakes fault (GLF) and faults that splay from the GLF. The GPF and sub-parallel faults are 1 to 6.7km long with left-lateral strike-slip displacements up to 80m. The GPF and GPF-parallel faults have architectures that are heterogeneous along strike. They are composed of one to four fault core strands containing cataclasites and ultracataclasites that cross-cut early localized crystal-plastic deformation. Slip surfaces developed at the edges of, within and between fault cores are defined by pseudotachylytes and cataclasites with thicknesses of ~0.01 to 20mm. Fault-related subsidiary structures are developed on either side of fault cores, and comprise damage zones with widths orthogonal to the fault of up to 30m. The GLF and splay faults have architectures that are more homogeneous along strike. These faults are composed of a tabular volume of heavily fractured and altered host rock between approximately planar fault core strands. The fault cores are centimetres wide and contain cataclasites and foliated cataclasites that are cross-cut by pseudotachylytes. Fault-related damage is limited in extent to several metres beyond the bounding fault cores. The GLF contains additional cataclasites, ultracataclasites and pseudotachylytes in a fault core strand within the tabular zone of fractured rock. Thermochronologic analyses of the host rock granodiorite, combined with previously published palaeogeobarometry and apatite fission track data, define the temperature and pressure changes associated with cooling and exhumation of the pluton. The P-T conditions prevalent during the deformation history of the GPF fault system are evaluated by relating recrystallisation mechanisms in quartz to temperature, showing that the early stages of deformation occurred at temperatures of 450 to 600ºC. Dating of pseudotachylytes by the K-Ar isotopic method suggests subsequent brittle deformation took place at temperatures <350ºC and pressures ≤150MPa. A model for the architecture of the GPF architecture therefore has well constrained environmental controls, and should be transferrable to faults with comparable deformation histories. Small faults (cumulative displacements <1m) in the Mount Abbot Quadrangle, 55km north of Granite Pass, have been examined to illustrate the processes associated with the earliest stages of slip in the Sierra Nevada faults. The faults have branched or straight fault traces. Pseudotachylytes in branching faults show that these faults accumulated displacement in high velocity slip events, rather than by quasi-static fault growth. Branching faults without pseudotachylytes contain chlorite breccias interpreted to have formed in response to slip along faults with elevated pore fluid pressure. Straight faults also likely underwent slip events, but contain cataclased chlorite and epidote, suggesting low fluid pressures during slip. The small faults show that fluid-rock interactions are critical to fault geometry, and that lateral structural heterogeneity is established after small finite displacements. Field and thin section observations of exhumed seismogenic faults show that fault architecture and fault rock assemblage are critical to the earthquake rupture process. The heterogeneous composition of slip surfaces in the GPF faults imply that melt lubrication cannot account for all of the dynamic slip weakening as there are no continuous pseudotachylyte generation surfaces through the fault zones. Multiple slip weakening mechanisms must have been active during single rupture events. Slip weakening mechanisms also change at a given point on the fault in response to continued deformation. Splay faults at the GLF termination suggest that structural complexity observed at the terminations of fault surface traces can also be expected at depth. The off-fault damage at the termination of the GLF will change the bulk elastic properties of the host rock and must be accounted for in models of rupture propagation beyond fault terminations, or across geometrical discontinuities. Additionally, aftershock distributions and focal mechanisms may be controlled by the geometry of structures present at fault terminations.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems

Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change

The valuation of guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefit options in variable annuity contracts and the impact of mortality risk

n light of the growing importance of the variable annuities market, in this paper we introduce a theoretical model for the pricing and valuation of guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefit (GLWB) options embedded in variable annuity products. As the name suggests, this option offers a lifelong withdrawal guarantee; therefore, there is no limit on the total amount that is withdrawn over the term of the policy because if the account value becomes zero while the insured is still alive, he or she continues to receive the guaranteed amount annually until death. Any remaining account value at the time of death is paid to the beneficiary as a death benefit. We offer a specific framework to value the GLWB option in a market-consistent manner under the hypothesis of a static withdrawal strategy, according to which the withdrawal amount is always equal to the guaranteed amount. The valuation approach is based on the decomposition of the product into living and death benefits. The model makes use of the standard no-arbitrage models of mathematical finance, which extend the Black-Scholes framework to insurance contracts, assuming the fund follows a geometric Brownian motion and the insurance fee is paid, on an ongoing basis, as a proportion of the assets. We develop a sensitivity analysis, which shows how the value of the product varies with the key parameters, including the age of the policyholder at the inception of the contract, the guaranteed rate, the risk-free rate, and the fund volatility. We calculate the fair fee, using Monte Carlo simulations under different scenarios. We give special attention to the impact of mortality risk on the value of the option, using a flexible model of mortality dynamics, which allows for the possible perturbations by mortality shock of the standard mortality tables used by practitioners. Moreover, we evaluate the introduction of roll-up and step-up options and the effect of the decision to delay withdrawing. Empirical analyses are performed, and numerical results are provided

COVID-19-associated hyperinflammation and escalation of patient care: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study

Background: A subset of patients with severe COVID-19 develop a hyperinflammatory syndrome, which might contribute to morbidity and mortality. This study explores a specific phenotype of COVID-19-associated hyperinflammation (COV-HI), and its associations with escalation of respiratory support and survival. / Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled consecutive inpatients (aged ≥18 years) admitted to University College London Hospitals and Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals in the UK with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 during the first wave of community-acquired infection. Demographic data, laboratory tests, and clinical status were recorded from the day of admission until death or discharge, with a minimum follow-up time of 28 days. We defined COV-HI as a C-reactive protein concentration greater than 150 mg/L or doubling within 24 h from greater than 50 mg/L, or a ferritin concentration greater than 1500 μg/L. Respiratory support was categorised as oxygen only, non-invasive ventilation, and intubation. Initial and repeated measures of hyperinflammation were evaluated in relation to the next-day risk of death or need for escalation of respiratory support (as a combined endpoint), using a multi-level logistic regression model. / Findings: We included 269 patients admitted to one of the study hospitals between March 1 and March 31, 2020, among whom 178 (66%) were eligible for escalation of respiratory support and 91 (34%) patients were not eligible. Of the whole cohort, 90 (33%) patients met the COV-HI criteria at admission. Despite having a younger median age and lower median Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, a higher proportion of patients with COV-HI on admission died during follow-up (36 [40%] of 90 patients) compared with the patients without COV-HI on admission (46 [26%] of 179). Among the 178 patients who were eligible for full respiratory support, 65 (37%) met the definition for COV-HI at admission, and 67 (74%) of the 90 patients whose respiratory care was escalated met the criteria by the day of escalation. Meeting the COV-HI criteria was significantly associated with the risk of next-day escalation of respiratory support or death (hazard ratio 2·24 [95% CI 1·62–2·87]) after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity. / Interpretation: Associations between elevated inflammatory markers, escalation of respiratory support, and survival in people with COVID-19 indicate the existence of a high-risk inflammatory phenotype. COV-HI might be useful to stratify patient groups in trial design. / Funding: None

Factors Associated with HIV/AIDS Diagnostic Disclosure to HIV Infected Children Receiving HAART: A Multi-Center Study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic disclosure of HIV/AIDS to a child is becoming an increasingly common issue in clinical practice. Nevertheless, some parents and health care professionals are reluctant to inform children about their HIV infection status. The objective of this study was to identify the proportion of children who have knowledge of their serostatus and factors associated with disclosure in HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in five hospitals in Addis Ababa from February 18, 2008-April 28, 2008. The study populations were parents/caretakers and children living with HIV/AIDS who were receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) in selected hospitals in Addis Ababa. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were carried out using SPSS 12.0.1 statistical software. RESULTS: A total of 390 children/caretaker pairs were included in the study. Two hundred forty three children (62.3%) were between 6-9 years of age. HIV/AIDS status was known by 68 (17.4%) children, 93 (29%) caretakers reported knowing the child's serostatus two years prior to our survey, 180 (46.2%) respondents said that the child should be told about his/her HIV/AIDS status when he/she is older than 14 years of age. Children less than 9 years of age and those living with educated caregivers are less likely to know their results than their counterparts. Children referred from hospital's in-patient ward before attending the HIV clinic and private clinic were more likely to know their results than those from community clinic. CONCLUSION: The proportion of disclosure of HIV/AIDS diagnosis to HIV-infected children is low. Strengthening referral linkage and health education tailored to educated caregivers are recommended to increase the rate of disclosure

Herbivory, Connectivity, and Ecosystem Resilience: Response of a Coral Reef to a Large-Scale Perturbation

Coral reefs world-wide are threatened by escalating local and global impacts, and some impacted reefs have shifted from coral dominance to a state dominated by macroalgae. Therefore, there is a growing need to understand the processes that affect the capacity of these ecosystems to return to coral dominance following disturbances, including those that prevent the establishment of persistent stands of macroalgae. Unlike many reefs in the Caribbean, over the last several decades, reefs around the Indo-Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia have consistently returned to coral dominance following major perturbations without shifting to a macroalgae-dominated state. Here, we present evidence of a rapid increase in populations of herbivorous fishes following the most recent perturbation, and show that grazing by these herbivores has prevented the establishment of macroalgae following near complete loss of coral on offshore reefs. Importantly, we found the positive response of herbivorous fishes to increased benthic primary productivity associated with coral loss was driven largely by parrotfishes that initially recruit to stable nursery habitat within the lagoons before moving to offshore reefs later in life. These results underscore the importance of connectivity between the lagoon and offshore reefs for preventing the establishment of macroalgae following disturbances, and indicate that protecting nearshore nursery habitat of herbivorous fishes is critical for maintaining reef resilience

The Role of Turtles as Coral Reef Macroherbivores

Herbivory is widely accepted as a vital function on coral reefs. To date, the majority of studies examining herbivory in coral reef environments have focused on the roles of fishes and/or urchins, with relatively few studies considering the potential role of macroherbivores in reef processes. Here, we introduce evidence that highlights the potential role of marine turtles as herbivores on coral reefs. While conducting experimental habitat manipulations to assess the roles of herbivorous reef fishes we observed green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) showing responses that were remarkably similar to those of herbivorous fishes. Reducing the sediment load of the epilithic algal matrix on a coral reef resulted in a forty-fold increase in grazing by green turtles. Hawksbill turtles were also observed to browse transplanted thalli of the macroalga Sargassum swartzii in a coral reef environment. These responses not only show strong parallels to herbivorous reef fishes, but also highlight that marine turtles actively, and intentionally, remove algae from coral reefs. When considering the size and potential historical abundance of marine turtles we suggest that these potentially valuable herbivores may have been lost from many coral reefs before their true importance was understood

Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation