The relative roles of CO2 and palaeogeography in determining Late Miocene climate: results from a terrestrial model-data comparison

The Late Miocene (∼11.6–5.3 Ma) palaeorecord provides evidence for a warmer and wetter climate than that of today and there is uncertainty in the palaeo-CO2 record of at least 150 ppmv. We present results from fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation simulations for the Late Miocene that examine the relative roles of palaeogeography (topography and ice sheet geometry) and CO2 concentration in the determination of Late Miocene climate through comprehensive terrestrial model-data comparisons. Assuming that the data accurately reflects the Late Miocene climate, and that the Late Miocene palaeogeographic reconstruction used in the model is robust, then results indicate that the proxy-derived precipitation differences between the Late Miocene and modern can be largely accounted for by the palaeogeographic changes alone. However, the proxy-derived temperatures differences between the Late Miocene and modern can only begin to be accounted for if we assume a palaeo-CO2 concentration towards the higher end of the range of estimates

Atmospheric and oceanic impacts of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene-Oligocene transition

The glaciation of Antarctica at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (approx. 34 million years ago) was a major shift in the Earth’s climate system, but the mechanisms that caused the glaciation, and its effects, remain highly debated. A number of recent studies have used coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models to assess the climatic effects of Antarctic glacial inception, with often contrasting results. Here, using the HadCM3L model, we show that the global atmosphere and ocean response to growth of the Antarctic ice sheet is sensitive to subtle variations in palaeogeography, using two reconstructions representing Eocene and Oligocene geological stages. The earlier stage (Eocene; Priabonian), which has a relatively constricted Tasman Seaway, shows a major increase in sea surface temperature over the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean in response to the ice sheet. This response does not occur for the later stage (Oligocene; Rupelian), which has a more open Tasman Seaway. This difference in temperature response is attributed to reorganization of ocean currents between the stages. Following ice sheet expansion in the earlier stage, the large Ross Sea gyre circulation decreases in size. Stronger zonal flow through the Tasman Seaway allows salinities to increase in the Ross Sea, deep-water formation initiates and multiple feedbacks then occur amplifying the temperature response. This is potentially a model-dependent result, but it highlights the sensitive nature of model simulations to subtle variations in palaeogeography, and highlights the need for coupled ice sheet–climate simulations to properly represent and investigate feedback processes acting on these time scales

Late outcomes of a randomized trial of high-frequency oscillation in neonates

BACKGROUND: Results from an observational study involving neonates suggested that high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV), as compared with conventional ventilation, was associated with superior small-airway function at follow-up. Data from randomized trials are needed to confirm this finding. METHODS: We studied 319 adolescents who had been born before 29 weeks of gestation and had been enrolled in a multicenter, randomized trial that compared HFOV with conventional ventilation immediately after birth. The trial involved 797 neonates, of whom 592 survived to hospital discharge. We compared follow-up data from adolescents who had been randomly assigned to HFOV with follow-up data from those who had been randomly assigned to conventional ventilation, with respect to lung function and respiratory health, health-related quality of life, and functional status, as assessed with the use of questionnaires completed when the participants were 11 to 14 years of age. The primary outcome was forced expiratory flow at 75% of the expired vital capacity (FEF(75)). RESULTS: The HFOV group had superior results on a test of small-airway function (z score for FEF(75), −0.97 with HFOV vs. −1.19 with conventional therapy; adjusted difference, 0.23 [95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.45]). There were significant differences in favor of HFOV in several other measures of respiratory function, including forced expiratory volume in 1 second, forced vital capacity, peak expiratory flow, diffusing capacity, and impulse-oscillometric findings. As compared with the conventional-therapy group, the HFOV group had significantly higher ratings from teachers in three of eight school subjects assessed, but there were no other significant differences in functional outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In a randomized trial involving children who had been born extremely prematurely, those who had undergone HFOV, as compared with those who had received conventional ventilation, had superior lung function at 11 to 14 years of age, with no evidence of poorer functional outcomes. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme and others.

Changes in the high latitude Southern Hemisphere through the Eocene-Oligocene Transition:a model-data comparison

International audienceAbstract. The global and regional climate changed dramatically with the expansion of the Antarctic Ice Sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT). These large-scale changes are generally linked to declining atmospheric pCO2 levels and/or changes in Southern Ocean gateways such as the Drake Passage around this time. To better understand the Southern Hemisphere regional climatic changes and the impact of glaciation on the Earth's oceans and atmosphere at the EOT, we compiled a database of 10 ocean and 4 land-surface temperature reconstructions from a range of proxy records and compared this with a series of fully coupled, low-resolution climate model simulations from two models (HadCM3BL and FOAM). Regional patterns in the proxy records of temperature show that cooling across the EOT was less at high latitudes and greater at mid-latitudes. While certain climate model simulations show moderate–good performance at recreating the temperature patterns shown in the data before and after the EOT, in general the model simulations do not capture the absolute latitudinal temperature gradient shown by the data, being too cold, particularly at high latitudes. When taking into account the absolute temperature before and after the EOT, as well as the change in temperature across it, simulations with a closed Drake Passage before and after the EOT or with an opening of the Drake Passage across the EOT perform poorly, whereas simulations with a drop in atmospheric pCO2 in combination with ice growth generally perform better. This provides further support for previous research that changes in atmospheric pCO2 are more likely to have been the driver of the EOT climatic changes, as opposed to the opening of the Drake Passage

Multi-variate factorisation of numerical simulations

Factorisation (also known as "factor separation") is widely used in the analysis of numerical simulations. It allows changes in properties of a system to be attributed to changes in multiple variables associated with that system. There are many possible factorisation methods; here we discuss three previously proposed factorisations that have been applied in the field of climate modelling: the linear factorisation, the factorisation, and the factorisation. We show that, when more than two variables are being considered, none of these three methods possess all four properties of "uniqueness", "symmetry", "completeness", and "purity". Here, we extend each of these factorisations so that they do possess these properties for any number of variables, resulting in three factorisations - the "linear-sum"factorisation, the "shared-interaction"factorisation, and the "scaled-residual"factorisation. We show that the linear-sum factorisation and the shared-interaction factorisation reduce to be identical in the case of four or fewer variables, and we conjecture that this holds for any number of variables. We present the results of the factorisations in the context of three past studies that used the previously proposed factorisations

On the causes of mid-Pliocene warmth and polar amplification

The mid-Pliocene (~ 3 to 3.3 Ma ago), is a period of sustained global warmth in comparison to the late Quaternary (0 to ~ 1 Ma ago), and has potential to inform predictions of long-term future climate change. However, given that several processes potentially contributed, relatively little is understood about the reasons for the observed warmth, or the associated polar amplification. Here, using a modelling approach and a novel factorisation method, we assess the relative contributions to mid-Pliocene warmth from: elevated CO2, lowered orography, and vegetation and ice sheet changes. The results show that on a global scale, the largest contributor to mid-Pliocene warmth is elevated CO2. However, in terms of polar amplification, changes to ice sheets contribute significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, and orographic changes contribute significantly in the Northern Hemisphere. We also carry out an energy balance analysis which indicates that that on a global scale, surface albedo and atmospheric emmissivity changes dominate over cloud changes. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in the prescribed CO2 and orographic changes, to derive uncertainty ranges for the various contributing processes

Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5

Orbital, tectonic and oceanographic controls on Pliocene climate and atmospheric circulation in Arctic Norway

During the Pliocene Epoch, a stronger-than-present overturning circulation has been invoked to explain the enhanced warming in the Nordic Seas region in comparison to low to mid-latitude regions. While marine records are indicative of changes in the northward heat transport via the North Atlantic Current (NAC) during the Pliocene, the long-term terrestrial climate evolution and its driving mechanisms are poorly understood. We present the first two-million-year-long Pliocene pollen record for the Nordic Seas region from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 642B, reflecting vegetation and climate in Arctic Norway, to assess the influence of oceanographic and atmospheric controls on Pliocene climate evolution. The vegetation record reveals a long-term cooling trend in northern Norway, which might be linked to a general decline in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the studied interval, and climate oscillations primarily controlled by precession (23 kyr), obliquity (54 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) forcing. In addition, the record identifies four major shifts in Pliocene vegetation and climate mainly controlled by changes in northward heat transport via the NAC. Cool temperate (warmer than present) conditions prevailed between 5.03–4.30 Ma, 3.90–3.47 Ma and 3.29–3.16 Ma and boreal (similar to present) conditions predominated between 4.30–3.90 Ma, 3.47–3.29 and after 3.16 Ma. A distinct decline in sediment and pollen accumulation rates at c. 4.65 Ma is probably linked to changes in ocean currents, marine productivity and atmospheric circulation. Climate model simulations suggest that changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the Early Pliocene could have affected atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas region, which would have affected the direction of pollen transport from Scandinavia to ODP Hole 642B

Optimal management of older people with frailty non-weight bearing after lower limb fracture: a scoping review

BackgroundPatients with lower limb fractures who are non-weight bearing are at risk of the complications of the associated immobility and disability, particularly people with frailty, but there is lack of clarity about what constitutes optimal care for such patients. A scoping literature review was conducted to explore what evidence is available for the management of this patient group.MethodsMEDLINE (PubMed) CINAHL, EMBASE and the Cochrane databases of published literature and the HMIC and SIGLE sites for grey literature were searched for primary research studies and expert reports, using an iterative approach initially including the key term ‘non-weight bearing’. All study types were included. Analysis was by narrative synthesis.ResultsNo papers were identified from a search using the key phrase ‘non-weight bearing’. With this term removed, 11 indirectly relevant articles on lower limb fractures were retrieved from the searches of the electronic databases comprising three observational studies, five non-systematic review articles, a systematic review, an opinion piece and a survey of expert opinion that had relevance to restricted weight bearing patients. The observational studies indicated depression, cognition and nutrition affect outcome and hence have indirect relevance to management. The non-systematic reviews articles emphasised the importance of maintaining strength and range of movement during immobilisation and advised an orthogeriatric model of care. Fourteen UK and 97 non-UK guidelines relevant to fragility fractures, falls and osteoporosis management were found in the grey literature, but none made specific recommendations regarding the management of any period of non-weight bearing.DiscussionThese findings provide a summary of the evidence base that can be used in the development of a clinical guideline for these patients but is not sufficient. We propose that, a guideline should be developed for these patients using an expert consensus process