Good Predictions and Bad Policies

Relatively little has been said on economic policy by participants in the debate on the realisticness of assumptions in economic models. What has been said is that a `Friedmanian´ methodology which accepts unrealistic assumptions and is only concerned with correct predictions is appropriate from the perspective of a practical economist who is in charge of designing policy. This paper tries to show that this is not true. Even if a model provides very accurate predictions of an event, its ability to provide valid explanations is determined by the realisticness of its underlying assumptions. Different assumptions yield different explanations and unrealistic assumptions tend to provide no explanation at all. There is a strong relation between the way a phenomenon is explained and understood and the actions that are consequently recommended. Therefore, a model based on unrealistic assumptions is not a reliable source of advice on policy.Milton Friedman, unrealistic assumptions, economic policy, economic models, instrumentalism.

An approximation to the prediction of the summery emergence of "Ochlerotatus caspius" (Diptera: Culicidae) based on the relationship between degree-days accumulations and adult captures

Ochlerotatus caspius (Pallas) (Diptera, Culicidae) es el culícido más abundante durante el verano en las marismas de Huelva. Este estudio demuestra que la relación entre capturas de adultos, convertidas en probit, y la acumulación de temperatura o número de días-grado, convenientemente adaptada mediante a una transformación logarítmica, muestra ser signifi cativamente lineal para cada generación de este mosquito a lo largo de cada verano. Además, si se procesan todos los datos disponibles de todos los años considerados en el estudio se obtiene una alta correlación lineal y, en consecuencia, las ecuaciones resultantes poseen valor predictivo. Los resultados de la validación de los pronósticos que se extraen de las rectas de regresión log-probit, permiten que se puedan considerar estas rectas como una herramienta más de cara a aumentar la efi cacia de los programas de control integrado que se llevan a cabo en esta zona.Predicción de la emergencia estival de Ochlerotatus caspius (Diptera: Culicidae) basada en la relación entre la acumulación de días-grado y la captura de adultos. Ochlerotatus caspius (Pallas) (Diptera, Culicidae) es el culícido más abundante durante el verano en las marismas de Huelva. Este estudio demuestra que la relación entre capturas de adultos, convertidas en probit, y la acumulación de temperatura o número de días-grado, convenientemente adaptada mediante a una transformación logarítmica, muestra ser signifi cativamente lineal para cada generación de este mosquito a lo largo de cada verano. Además, si se procesan todos los datos disponibles de todos los años considerados en el estudio se obtiene una alta correlación lineal y, en consecuencia, las ecuaciones resultantes poseen valor predictivo. Los resultados de la validación de los pronósticos que se extraen de las rectas de regresión log-probit, permiten que se puedan considerar estas rectas como una herramienta más de cara a aumentar la efi cacia de los programas de control integrado que se llevan a cabo en esta zona

It´s Not My Money: An Experiment on Risk Aversion and the House-money Effect

The house-money effect -people´s tendency to be more daring with easily-gotten money- is abehavioral pattern that poses questions about the external validity of experiments in economics: to what extent do people behave in experiments like they would have in a real-life situation, given that they play with easily-gotten house money? We ran an economic experiment with 66 students to measure the house-money effect on their risk preferences. They received an amount of money with which they made risky decisions involving losses and gains; a treatment group got the money 21 days in advance and a control group got it the day of the experiment. We find that, when facing possible losses, people in the treatment group showed a lower tolerance to risk than people in the control group. If the players are assumed to have a CRRA utility function and to behave according to expected-utility theory, the risk-attitude adjustment corresponds to an average increase of 1 in their risk aversion coefficient. While the exact pattern of this house-money adjustment differs by gender, it is not possible to determine the sign of this gender effect unambiguously. In any case, it is advisable to include credible controls for the house-money effect in experimental work in economics.House-money effect, risk aversion, prospect theory, economic experiment, external validity.

Systematic Study of the Content of Phytochemicals in Fresh and Fresh-Cut Vegetables

Vegetables and fruits have beneficial properties for human health, because of the presence of phytochemicals, but their concentration can fluctuate throughout the year. A systematic study of the phytochemical content in tomato, eggplant, carrot, broccoli and grape (fresh and fresh-cut) has been performed at different seasons, using liquid chromatography coupled to triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. It was observed that phenolic acids (the predominant group in carrot, eggplant and tomato) were found at higher concentrations in fresh carrot than in fresh-cut carrot. However, in the case of eggplant, they were detected at a higher content in fresh-cut than in fresh samples. Regarding tomato, the differences in the content of phenolic acids between fresh and fresh-cut were lower than in other matrices, except in winter sampling, where this family was detected at the highest concentration in fresh tomato. In grape, the flavonols content (predominant group) was higher in fresh grape than in fresh-cut during all samplings. The content of glucosinolates was lower in fresh-cut broccoli than in fresh samples in winter and spring sampling, although this trend changes in summer and autumn. In summary, phytochemical concentration did show significant differences during one-year monitoring, and the families of phytochemicals presented different behaviors depending on the matrix studied

Evaluación de la implementación y uso de la Hoja Filtro Preconcepcional como instrumento de atención, Municipio de Tacuba, Departamento de Ahuachapán, El Salvador. 2017

Estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo y de corte transversal, realizado en el municipio de Tacuba, Departamento de Ahuachapán, la unidad de análisis estuvo constituido por los expedientes clínicos y la hoja de filtro preconcepcional registrados en las ecos familiares de municipio de Tacuba correspondientes al año 2017, el universo 112 expedientes y se tomó una muestra de 76. El 58 % de usuarios se encuentran siendo atendidos por médico general graduado, 56% de los establecimientos se encuentra aplicando la hoja filtro preconcepcional, solo 49 % registro factores biológicos, obstétricos y sociales; la calidad de llenado 46 % cumple totalmente con factor biológico, 46 % el factor obstétrico y 38 % el factor social, el procedimiento normatizado de seguimiento solo 15 % cumple totalmente. Las inscripciones preconcepcionales del municipio de Tacuba fueron realizan por médico general graduado y médico en servicio social. La calidad de llenado de la hoja filtro preconcepcional no cumple con los lineamientos establecidos por el ministerio de salud. El cumplimiento del procedimiento normatizado, según el riesgo identificado por el personal de salud, no se está brindando según lo descrito en los lineamientos de Ministerio de Salu

Knowledge Management as a Tool for Improving Business Processes: An Action Research Approach

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the importance of Knowledge Management as a tool for improving business processes in a different context from the industrial organizations, as an archaeological museum. Design/methodology/approach: Using data collected from the National Museum of the Sultanate of Oman in Muscat, a CMP methodology (business process improvement cycle) for analysis and improvement of processes business is designed and validated. This application is described as an eight phases process based on Six Sigma DMAIC. Findings: As the results obtained by the process improvement initiative show, we highlight the relevance of the improvement in all aspects regarding the security in showcases in that context. Research limitations/implications: The complexity of implementing indicators and the partial vision of the project as data were only obtained from a part of one of the companies involved in the construction of the museum. An important implication of this paper is in order to present a methodology to improve the museum processes focusing on the reduction of errors and also adding value for the visitors. Practical implications: The relevance to intervene on certain relevant variables at different levels of management performance is verified. Social implications: Improving the quality of leisure services in order to the identification of certain challenges regarding the nature and competitiveness of cultural services. Originality/value: The current work has served as a repository of knowledge applicable to new similar projects, in which to take into account the peculiarities of each case and in particular the level of quality demanded by the client in a cultural context. It is important to take into account the degree of avoidable dissatisfaction (number of solvable problems that would lead to dissatisfaction), the opportunity for improvement, the reduction of operational waste and the need for coordination.Peer Reviewe

Physical Education and eoretical knowledege: a cross-cultural study in Argentina, Brazil and Spain

Desde hace unos años, instituciones públicas educativas de diferentes países promueven la inclusión de contenidos teórico-conceptuales en los currículos de Educación Física. La formación de un ciudadano autónomo y con un estilo de vida activo constituye el objetivo central de esa inclusión. Sin embargo, se desconoce el efecto de estas recomendaciones, siendo esta cuestión, como se recoge en la cuarta edición del Research on Teaching in Physical Education, la menos investigada en la enseñanza de la Educación Física. En ese contexto, este estudio pretende conocer el resultado de la inclusión de conceptos en la enseñanza de la Educación Física en Argentina, Brasil y España, y analizar la posible relación existente entre el conocimiento teórico-conceptual y la frecuencia de actividad física (faf). Participaron 4.304 adolescentes de entre 12 y 17 años (14,2 ± 1,7), a los que se aplicó un cuestionario sobre conceptos (cacef-r) y escalas de faf. Los resultados indican que en ningún país se alcanza la puntuación media (aprobado) en conocimiento teórico-conceptual, encontrándose diferencias significativas entre ellos (p <0.000). En el mejor caso (población española), solo un 30% alcanza dicha media. Con respecto a la FAF, cerca del 50% de escolares no realiza suficiente actividad física para obtener beneficios sobre la salud, configurando una población con tendencia sedentaria y con diferencias significativas en función del género (anova: Argentina, F = 74.366, p<0.000; Brasil, F=169.024, p<0.000; España, F=248.616, p<0.000). El análisis de correlación (r = 0.198, p<0.01) y de regresión (R² = 0.039) revela una relación significativa entre conocimientos teórico-conceptuales y la faf. En definitiva, existe un bajo nivel de conocimientos teórico-conceptuales y un alto porcentaje de escolares con estilo de vida sedentario. Dada la necesidad de analizar los factores que puedan influir en un estilo de vida saludable, es oportuno señalar la relación significativa existente entre conocimiento y faf.For some years public educational institutions of different countries have been encouraging the inclusion of theoretical/conceptual knowledge in physical education curricula. The central objective of so doing is to teach students to become independent citizens who engage in an active lifestyle. However, the effect of these recommendations is unknown. As noted in the fourth edition of Research on Teaching in Physical Education, this is the least-researched topic in physical education teaching. This study attempts to ascertain the outcome of including concepts in physical education in Argentina, Brazil and Spain and to analyze the potential link between this theoretical/ conceptual knowledge and the frequency of physical activity (fpa). The participants are 4,304 teenagers between 12 and 17 years old (14.2 ± 1.7). A concept questionnaire (cacef-r) and fpa scales are applied. The results show that no country reaches the average score (“pass”) in theoretical/ conceptual knowledge. Significant differences are found between them (p<0.000). In the best case (the Spanish population), only 30% reach the average score. Findings on fpa show that close to 50% of students do not engage in sufficient physical activity to obtain health benefits. These students form a population with a sedentary trend and significant gender differences Revista de Educación, 356. Septiembre-diciembre 2011, pp. 653-675 Fecha de entrada: 07-01-2009 Fecha de aceptación: 17-06-2009 655 Velázquez Buendía, R., Hernández Álvarez, J. L., Martínez Gorroño, M. E. y Martínez de Haro, V. Educación Física y conocimiento teórico-conceptual: estudio trans-cultural en Argentina, Brasil y España (anova: Argentina, F=74.366, p <0.000; Brazil, F=169.024, p<0.000; Spain, F=248.616, p<0.000). The correlation analysis (r = 0.198, p<0.01) and regression analysis (R² = 0.039) show a significant relationship between theoretical/conceptual knowledge and fpa. In short, there is a low level of theoretical/conceptual knowledge and a high percentage of students with a sedentary lifestyle. Given the need to analyze the factors that could influence a healthy lifestyle, it is advisable to note the significant relationship between knowledge and fpa.Este artículo es producto (parcial) de los resultados obtenidos en dos proyectos de investigación, uno financiado por el Banco Santander Central Hispano en el marco de la cuarta convocatoria de Proyectos de Investigación uaM-bsch para la cooperación con América Latina (investigación realizada en Argentina y Brasil); y otro financiado por el Ministerio de Educación, Política Social y Deporte en el marco del Programa Nacional de i+d+i (código seJ2007-67267/edu) (investigación realizada en España)

Application of the Internet of Things through a Network of Wireless Sensors in a Coffee Crop for Monitoring and Control its Environmental Variables

En este artículo se presenta la aplicación del Internet de las cosas (IoT), como herramienta tecnológica para el desarrollo de una red inalámbrica de sensores, con el objetivo de monitorear y controlar una serie de variables ambientales que inciden en el cultivo del café y su calidad final. Se procedió al diseño lógico y físico de la red y sus dispositivos, se configuró la red de sensores en un terreno determinado y se procedió a recolectar la información de ciertas variables ambientales, para ser comparadas con una serie de parámetros ya establecidos, que permitirán al caficultor observar el comportamiento de dichas variables a través del tiempo y establecer la generación de alertas o advertencias cuando estas medidas se encuentran por fuera de los rangos establecidos. Una vez desarrollado el estudio se pudo determinar que el manejo del cultivo del café es bastante complejo, debido a la gran cantidad de variedades que se encuentran, el terreno y las variables de tipo ambiental que afectan el proceso de producción y la calidad final del grano. Además, se determinó que el desarrollo e implementación de redes inalámbricas de sensores es posible hoy en día por factores como la reducción de los costos de los dispositivos y el uso de software de código abierto, evitándose valores de licenciamiento adicionales. Finalmente, con base en los parámetros analizados, se pudo establecer que uno de los principales problemas en los cultivos de café es la humedad intensa, que en la práctica puede llegar a afectar el rendimiento de los sensores y sus mediciones.This article presents the application of the Internet of things (IoT), as a technological tool for the development of a wireless sensor network with the aim of monitoring and controlling a series of environmental variables affecting the cultivation of coffee and its final quality. The logical and physical design of the network and its devices was carried out, the sensors network was configured in a given field and the information of certain environmental variables was collected to be compared with a series of parameters already established. This procedure will allow the coffee growers to observe the behavior of these variables over time and set the generation of alerts or warnings when these measures are outside the established ranges. The study determined that the management of coffee cultivation is quite complex due to the large number of varieties found, the terrain and environmental variables affecting the production process and the final quality of the grain. It was also determined that the development and implementation of wireless sensor networks is possible today due to factors such as the reduction of device costs and the use of open source software, avoiding additional licensing values. Finally, based on the parameters analyzed, it was possible to establish that one of the main problems in coffee crops is the intense humidity that, in practice, can affect the performance of the sensors and their measurements

Morphology and Material Composition of the Mouthparts of Stromatium unicolor Olivier 1795 (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) for Bionic Application

The novelty of this study is the deep analysis of the morphologic, geometric and mechanical performance of longhorn beetle larvae mouthparts. Furthermore, a metal nano identification of jaw reinforced parts was made. Background and Objectives: Analysis of insect mechanical properties has shown an important application in the develop of bionic technologies such as new materials, industrial machines and structural concepts. This study aims to determine the mechanical and geometric properties of longhorn beetle (Stromatium unicolor Olivier 1795) larvae mouthparts to improve the development of innovative cutting tools. In addition, this study obtains a nano identification of metals in the cuticle of the mouthparts, which will enable the development of new nontoxic and sustainable preservation agents against xylophagous insects based on nanoparticles. Materials and Methods: five third-larval-stage samples of Stromatium unicolor were used to study its mandible morphologic, geometric and mechanical properties. To this end, mouthparts were analyzed by several microscopic techniques using a scanning electron microscope, a stereomicroscope and an optical microscope. Composition analysis was performed using with two Analytical-Inca X-ray detectors, dispersive energy spectroscopy and dispersive wavelength spectroscopy. Results: The main geometric parameters of the insect jaw are the edge angle (β = 77.3°), maximum path depth of the insect (120 μm), length (800 µm) and mouthpart movement, which were identified and measured. The chemical analysis results of the jaw tissues shows the presence of zinc and manganese. Conclusions: The geometry and angles of the mouthparts can be applied in the fabrication of bionic self-sharpening cutting tools. Molecular compounds that form the reinforcing elements in the jaws can be used to develop wood preservatives based on nanometals and metal absorption and metabolism inhibitor

The effects of native shrub, fencing, and acorn size on the emergence of contrasting co-occurring oak in Mediterranean grazed areas

Producción CientíficaResearch Highlights: The regeneration of Quercus species is usually very difficult in many oak woodlands transformed by livestock farming. Some studies have reported that shrubs can facilitate regeneration. However, the strength of interaction may vary depending on, among other factors, the shrub species and the stress tolerance of the oak species. Moreover, further studies are necessary to clarify the relative importance of the two facilitation mechanisms in the same community. Background and Objectives: Cytisus multiflorus (L’Her.) Sweet is a predominant shrub species in the Mediterranean grazed open-oak-woodlands found in the central west of the Iberian Peninsula (bioclimatic limit) and is present with Quercus pyrenaicaWilld and Quercus ilex subsp. ballota Samp trees. Thus, we assessed the effect of these native shrubs and acorn size, and the effect of excluding large herbivores, on the seedling emergence of two contrasting co-occurring Quercus species under a bioclimatic limit. Materials and Methods: A manipulative field experiment was carried out considering four treatments as a combination of shrubs (shrub/no-shrub) and fence (fenced/open) factors. A total of twenty plots, five replicates for each treatment were available. In each plot, 20 acorns were sown: 10 acorns (5 small and 5 large) for each Quercus species. Acorn emergence was recorded during the first four years following the sowing. Results: Seedling emergence took place mostly in the spring of the first year after sowing. The presence of shrub was the main significant factor and incremented the emergence of both Q. ilex and Q. pyrenaica. The effect of the fence depended on the Quercus species considered, improving only the emergence of Q. pyrenaica. A negative effect with the small acorns was detected but only for Q. pyrenaica. In all treatments, Q. ilex emerged more than Q. pyrenaica. Conclusions: C. multiflorus had a clear facilitative effect on the seedling emergence of Q. ilex and Q. pyrenaica, which was much greater than the physical effect that acorn size and excluding large herbivores had. As such, this native shrub may have a key role in oak regeneration in Mediterranean grazed areas. Furthermore, in these areas of contact between marcescent and sclerophyllous Quercus species, Q. ilex currently emerges more than Q. pyrenaica. This could be indicative of a shift towards more xeric climatic conditions, which could lead to a change in the dominant tree species in the future. However, this change could be modulated by the effects of native shrub and large herbivores.Junta de Castilla y León - (Project SA013G19)Universidad de Salamanca - (Programa de financiación de grupos de investigación (2014/00165/001)