The nexus between energy systems and public health: an investigation into the co-impacts of energy sector technology transitions on outdoor air pollution and public health in The United Kingdom and Greater London

There is significant value to be gained from insights on the trade-offs and synergies between proposed air quality and climate interventions. But, the models used in support of decarbonisation and air quality policies have not holistically considered these co-impacts. This thesis documents the use of an energy systems model to quantify the co-impacts of decarbonisation pathways on air pollution and vice versa in the United Kingdom. This manuscript further documents the soft-linking of this model to a public health tool in order to quantify the public health implications of these pathways. This research made a number of unique contributions to its field of research, including: 1. incorporating air pollution emissions for particulate matter and nitrogen oxides, in the United Kingdom TIMES model (UKTM-UCL) to create the U.K. TIMES model with air quality (UKTM-UCL-AQ) / 2. the creation of the PollutION Emissions from EneRgy (PIONEER) model, an air pollution and public health tool / 3. soft-linking UKTM-UCL-AQ to PIONEER to quantify the air pollution and public health co-impacts of U.K. energy technology transitions for Greater London The results suggest that there are numerous opportunities for climate and air quality policies to be mutually supportive. However, without considering their co-impacts, individual policies can undermine the others’ progress and create tension between policy efforts. The results also show the increasing importance of modal shifting in the transport sector in order to avoid future air pollution challenges

Metabolic correlates of prevalent mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease in adults with Down syndrome.

IntroductionDisruption of metabolic function is a recognized feature of late onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD). We sought to determine whether similar metabolic pathways are implicated in adults with Down syndrome (DS) who have increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD).MethodsWe examined peripheral blood from 292 participants with DS who completed baseline assessments in the Alzheimer's Biomarkers Consortium-Down Syndrome (ABC-DS) using untargeted mass spectrometry (MS). Our sample included 38 individuals who met consensus criteria for AD (DS-AD), 43 who met criteria for mild cognitive impairment (DS-MCI), and 211 who were cognitively unaffected and stable (CS).ResultsWe measured relative abundance of 8,805 features using MS and 180 putative metabolites were differentially expressed (DE) among the groups at false discovery rate-corrected q< 0.05. From the DE features, a nine-feature classifier model classified the CS and DS-AD groups with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of 0.86 and a two-feature model classified the DS-MCI and DS-AD groups with ROC AUC of 0.88. Metabolite set enrichment analysis across the three groups suggested alterations in fatty acid and carbohydrate metabolism.DiscussionOur results reveal metabolic alterations in DS-AD that are similar to those seen in LOAD. The pattern of results in this cross-sectional DS cohort suggests a dynamic time course of metabolic dysregulation which evolves with clinical progression from non-demented, to MCI, to AD. Metabolomic markers may be useful for staging progression of DS-AD

Exile Vol. XLII No. 2

40th Year Title Page i Epigraph by Ezra Pound ii Table of Contents ii Editorial Board iii frying fritters by Liz Bolyard \u2796 1 For Katherine by Carl Boon \u2796 1 poem paint by alex e blazer \u2797 2-3 Leftover Roses by Melissa Bostrom \u2796 4-12 O.J. (artwork) by Todd Gys \u2799 13 Untitled by Adrienne Fair \u2796 14-15 Hills by Liz Bolyard \u2796 16 A Serious Discussion with Ed Shim by Carl Boon \u2796 17 Untitled by David Kendall \u2796 18-19 Brave River by Nikole Hobbs \u2799 20-21 a wavy wail by alex e blazer \u2797 22-23 Misplaced by Tyler Smith \u2797 24 Imogene by Erin Lott \u2796 25-26 Why I can\u27t sleep at night by Colin Bossen \u2798 27 A Lovesong Never Realised by Matthew Rump \u2798 28 Contributors\u27 Notes 29-30 Special thanks to EPI Printing of Livonia, Michigan and Graphic Concepts Unlimited of Okemos, Michigan for helping to make this issue possible. -iii Cover art The Longest Neck by Todd Gys -ii

The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence. METHODS: Modelling the energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors, and mortality related to risk factors of air pollution, diet, and physical activity, we analysed the health co-benefits of existing NDCs and related policies (ie, the current pathways scenario) for 2040 in nine countries around the world. We compared these health co-benefits with two alternative scenarios, one consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (ie, the sustainable pathways scenario), and one in line with the sustainable pathways scenario, but also placing health as a central focus of the policies (ie, the health in all climate policies scenario). FINDINGS: Compared with the current pathways scenario, the sustainable pathways scenario resulted in an annual reduction of 1·18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5·86 million diet-related deaths, and 1·15 million deaths due to physical inactivity, across the nine countries, by 2040. Adopting the more ambitious health in all climate policies scenario would result in a further reduction of 462 000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, 572 000 annual deaths attributable to diet, and 943 000 annual deaths attributable to physical inactivity. These benefits were attributable to the mitigation of direct greenhouse gas emissions and the commensurate actions that reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, as well as improved diets and safe physical activity. INTERPRETATION: A greater consideration of health in the NDCs and climate change mitigation policies has the potential to yield considerable health benefits as well as achieve the "well below 2°C" commitment across a range of regional and economic contexts. FUNDING: This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (award number 209734/Z/17/Z) and supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant (grant number EP/R035288/1)

The public health implications of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: nationally determined contributions (NDCs) serve to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement of staying "well below 2°C", which could also yield substantial health co-benefits in the process. However, existing NDC commitments are inadequate to achieve this goal. Placing health as a key focus of the NDCs could present an opportunity to increase ambition and realise health co-benefits. We modelled scenarios to analyse the health co-benefits of NDCs for the year 2040 for nine representative countries (ie, Brazil, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, the UK, and the USA) that were selected for their contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and their global or regional influence. METHODS: Modelling the energy, food and agriculture, and transport sectors, and mortality related to risk factors of air pollution, diet, and physical activity, we analysed the health co-benefits of existing NDCs and related policies (ie, the current pathways scenario) for 2040 in nine countries around the world. We compared these health co-benefits with two alternative scenarios, one consistent with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (ie, the sustainable pathways scenario), and one in line with the sustainable pathways scenario, but also placing health as a central focus of the policies (ie, the health in all climate policies scenario). FINDINGS: Compared with the current pathways scenario, the sustainable pathways scenario resulted in an annual reduction of 1·18 million air pollution-related deaths, 5·86 million diet-related deaths, and 1·15 million deaths due to physical inactivity, across the nine countries, by 2040. Adopting the more ambitious health in all climate policies scenario would result in a further reduction of 462 000 annual deaths attributable to air pollution, 572 000 annual deaths attributable to diet, and 943 000 annual deaths attributable to physical inactivity. These benefits were attributable to the mitigation of direct greenhouse gas emissions and the commensurate actions that reduce exposure to harmful pollutants, as well as improved diets and safe physical activity. INTERPRETATION: A greater consideration of health in the NDCs and climate change mitigation policies has the potential to yield considerable health benefits as well as achieve the "well below 2°C" commitment across a range of regional and economic contexts. FUNDING: This work was in part funded through an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (award number 209734/Z/17/Z) and supported by an Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant (grant number EP/R035288/1)

Exile Vol. XLI

39th Year Cover Art by Elisa Gargarelle \u2795 (quote from J.D. Salinger\u27s Catcher in the Rye) untitled by Aileen Jones \u2797 i Girl by Colin Bossen \u2798 1 sun by Alex Blazer \u2796 2 Shifting by Alex Blazer \u2796 2 The Fish by Sarah Ramsey \u2795 3 New Woman by Lisa Stillman \u2795 4 Why by Lelei Jennings \u2795 5 Camel Cafe by Jeremy Aufrance \u2795 5 Jenny by Lizzy Loud \u2795 6 Beautiful Dreamer by Melissa Bostrom \u2796 7 Rising by Lizzy Loud \u2795 12 Pinsetter by Jeremy Aufrance \u2795 13 A Greater Distance by Jeff Boon \u2795 14 Shiho by Jeff Boon \u2795 15 Sub-stance by Alex Blazer \u2796 15 Sisters by Gretchen Hambley \u2796 16 Anne Sexton by Allison Lemieux \u2796 17 The Holy Grail... by Ed Shim \u2795 17 untitled by Liz Bolyard \u2796 18 23 by Keith Chapman \u2795 18 Bang, Zoom! by Victoria Lyall \u2796 19 Gabe and Me by Heather Trabert \u2797 20 Tornado Summer by Liz Bolyard \u2796 21 Nude by Elise Gargarella \u2795 21 Why I can\u27t tell short stories by Colin Bossen \u2798 22 america by Lynn Tramonte \u2798 24 Upon Being Asked... by Matt Makman \u2796 24 Being Azra by Lynn Tramonte \u2798 25 Mystic Truths by Adrienne Binni \u2795 27 King\u27s Court by Elisha Gargarella \u2795 27 Incense by Erin Lott \u2796 28 Sunday Morning... by Lisa Stillman \u2795 33 untitled by Elisa Gargarella \u2795 33 Quien no ha visto... by Adrienne Binni \u2795 34 The Space Between Us by Allison Lemieux \u2795 35 searching for the Bermuda... by Victoria Lyall \u2796 35 untitled by Man Chhoa \u2796 36 The Hunted by J. Murdoch Matheson \u2796 37 Editorial decisions are shared equally among the editorial board. -4

Proteomic profiles for Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment among adults with Down syndrome spanning serum and plasma: An Alzheimer's Biomarker Consortium-Down Syndrome (ABC-DS) study.

INTRODUCTION: Previously generated serum and plasma proteomic profiles were examined among adults with Down syndrome (DS) to determine whether these profiles could discriminate those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI-DS) and Alzheimer's disease (DS-AD) from those cognitively stable (CS). METHODS: Data were analyzed on n = 305 (n = 225 CS; n = 44 MCI-DS; n = 36 DS-AD) enrolled in the Alzheimer's Biomarker Consortium-Down Syndrome (ABC-DS). RESULTS: Distinguishing MCI-DS from CS, the serum profile produced an area under the curve (AUC) = 0.95 (sensitivity [SN] = 0.91; specificity [SP] = 0.99) and an AUC = 0.98 (SN = 0.96; SP = 0.97) for plasma when using an optimized cut-off score. Distinguishing DS-AD from CS, the serum profile produced an AUC = 0.93 (SN = 0.81; SP = 0.99) and an AUC = 0.95 (SN = 0.86; SP = 1.0) for plasma when using an optimized cut-off score. AUC remained unchanged to slightly improved when age and sex were included. Eotaxin3, interleukin (IL)-10, C-reactive protein, IL-18, serum amyloid A , and FABP3 correlated fractions at r2 > = 0.90. DISCUSSION: Proteomic profiles showed excellent detection accuracy for MCI-DS and DS-AD

Fermi Large Area Telescope Constraints on the Gamma-ray Opacity of the Universe

The Extragalactic Background Light (EBL) includes photons with wavelengths from ultraviolet to infrared, which are effective at attenuating gamma rays with energy above ~10 GeV during propagation from sources at cosmological distances. This results in a redshift- and energy-dependent attenuation of the gamma-ray flux of extragalactic sources such as blazars and Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs). The Large Area Telescope onboard Fermi detects a sample of gamma-ray blazars with redshift up to z~3, and GRBs with redshift up to z~4.3. Using photons above 10 GeV collected by Fermi over more than one year of observations for these sources, we investigate the effect of gamma-ray flux attenuation by the EBL. We place upper limits on the gamma-ray opacity of the Universe at various energies and redshifts, and compare this with predictions from well-known EBL models. We find that an EBL intensity in the optical-ultraviolet wavelengths as great as predicted by the "baseline" model of Stecker et al. (2006) can be ruled out with high confidence.Comment: 42 pages, 12 figures, accepted version (24 Aug.2010) for publication in ApJ; Contact authors: A. Bouvier, A. Chen, S. Raino, S. Razzaque, A. Reimer, L.C. Reye