The nexus between energy systems and public health: an investigation into the co-impacts of energy sector technology transitions on outdoor air pollution and public health in The United Kingdom and Greater London

Abstract

There is significant value to be gained from insights on the trade-offs and synergies between proposed air quality and climate interventions. But, the models used in support of decarbonisation and air quality policies have not holistically considered these co-impacts. This thesis documents the use of an energy systems model to quantify the co-impacts of decarbonisation pathways on air pollution and vice versa in the United Kingdom. This manuscript further documents the soft-linking of this model to a public health tool in order to quantify the public health implications of these pathways. This research made a number of unique contributions to its field of research, including: 1. incorporating air pollution emissions for particulate matter and nitrogen oxides, in the United Kingdom TIMES model (UKTM-UCL) to create the U.K. TIMES model with air quality (UKTM-UCL-AQ) / 2. the creation of the PollutION Emissions from EneRgy (PIONEER) model, an air pollution and public health tool / 3. soft-linking UKTM-UCL-AQ to PIONEER to quantify the air pollution and public health co-impacts of U.K. energy technology transitions for Greater London The results suggest that there are numerous opportunities for climate and air quality policies to be mutually supportive. However, without considering their co-impacts, individual policies can undermine the others’ progress and create tension between policy efforts. The results also show the increasing importance of modal shifting in the transport sector in order to avoid future air pollution challenges