How big is too big? Critical Shocks for Systemic Failure Cascades

External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical constellations determine whether this cascade remains finite or reaches the size of the system, i.e. leads to systemic risk. We investigate the critical parameters for such cascades in a simple model, where agents are characterized by an individual threshold \theta_i determining their capacity to handle a load \alpha\theta_i with 1-\alpha being their safety margin. If agents fail, they redistribute their load equally to K neighboring agents in a regular network. For three different threshold distributions P(\theta), we derive analytical results for the size of the cascade, X(t), which is regarded as a measure of systemic risk, and the time when it stops. We focus on two different regimes, (i) EEE, an external extreme event where the size of the shock is of the order of the total capacity of the network, and (ii) RIE, a random internal event where the size of the shock is of the order of the capacity of an agent. We find that even for large extreme events that exceed the capacity of the network finite cascades are still possible, if a power-law threshold distribution is assumed. On the other hand, even small random fluctuations may lead to full cascades if critical conditions are met. Most importantly, we demonstrate that the size of the "big" shock is not the problem, as the systemic risk only varies slightly for changes of 10 to 50 percent of the external shock. Systemic risk depends much more on ingredients such as the network topology, the safety margin and the threshold distribution, which gives hints on how to reduce systemic risk.Comment: 23 pages, 7 Figure

Novel Synthesis and High Pressure Behavior of Na0.3CoO2 x 1.3 H2O and Related Phases

We have prepared powder samples of NaxCoO2 x yH2O using a new synthesis route. Superconductivity was observed in Na0.3CoO2 x 1.3H2O between 4 and 5K as indicated by the magnetic susceptibility. The bulk compressibilities of Na0.3CoO2 x 1.3H2O, Na0.3CoO2 x 0.6H2O and Na0.3CoO2 were determined using a diamond anvil cell and synchrotron powder diffraction. Chemical changes occurring under pressure when using different pressure transmitting media are discussed and further transport measurements are advocated.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, PRrapid submitte

Europium doping of zincblende GaN by ion implantation

Eu was implanted into high quality cubic (zincblende) GaN (ZB-GaN) layers grown by molecular beam epitaxy. Detailed structural characterization before and after implantation was performed by x-ray diffraction (XRD) and Rutherford backscattering/channeling spectrometry. A low concentration ( direction, while a Ga substitutional site is observed for W-GaN:Eu. The implantation damage in ZB-GaN:Eu could partly be removed by thermal annealing, but an increase in the wurtzite phase fraction was observed at the same time. Cathodoluminescence, photoluminescence (PL), and PL excitation spectroscopy revealed several emission lines which can be attributed to distinct Eu-related optical centers in ZB-GaN and W-GaN inclusions

Electronic States in Two-Dimensional Triangular Cobalt Oxides: Role of Electronic Correlation

We obtain the electronic states and structures of two-dimensional cobalt oxides, Na$_{x}$CoO$_{2}$ (x=0, 0.35, 0.5 and 0.75) by utilizing the full-potential linear muffin-tin orbitals (FP-LMTO) methods, from which some essential electronic interaction parameters are estimated: the bare on-site Coulomb interaction of cobalt U$_{dd}$=7.5 eV renormalizes to 5 eV for x=0.35, the $pd$ hybridizations t$_{pd\sigma}$ and t$_{pd\pi}$ are -1.40 and 0.70 eV, respectively. The density of states at E$_{F}$ decreases from 6-7 states/eV in the local density approximation (LDA) to about 1.0 states/eV in the LDA+U scheme. The role of the intercalation of water molecules and the microscopic mechanism of the superconductivity in Na$_{0.35}$CoO$_{2}$$\cdot$mH$_{2}$O is discussed.Comment: minor errors correcte

GEN1 from a thermophilic fungus is functionally closely similar to non-eukaryotic junction-resolving enzymes

AbstractProcessing of Holliday junctions is essential in recombination. We have identified the gene for the junction-resolving enzyme GEN1 from the thermophilic fungus Chaetomium thermophilum and expressed the N-terminal 487-amino-acid section. The protein is a nuclease that is highly selective for four-way DNA junctions, cleaving 1nt 3′ to the point of strand exchange on two strands symmetrically disposed about a diagonal axis. CtGEN1 binds to DNA junctions as a discrete homodimer with nanomolar affinity. Analysis of the kinetics of cruciform cleavage shows that cleavage of the second strand occurs an order of magnitude faster than the first cleavage so as to generate a productive resolution event. All these properties are closely similar to those described for bacterial, phage and mitochondrial junction-resolving enzymes. CtGEN1 is also similar in properties to the human enzyme but lacks the problems with aggregation that currently prevent detailed analysis of the latter protein. CtGEN1 is thus an excellent enzyme with which to engage in biophysical and structural analysis of eukaryotic GEN1

Thermal conductivity via magnetic excitations in spin-chain materials

We discuss the recent progress and the current status of experimental investigations of spin-mediated energy transport in spin-chain and spin-ladder materials with antiferromagnetic coupling. We briefly outline the central results of theoretical studies on the subject but focus mainly on recent experimental results that were obtained on materials which may be regarded as adequate physical realizations of the idealized theoretical model systems. Some open questions and unsettled issues are also addressed.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figure

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Phosphorothioate antisense oligonucleotides induce the formation of nuclear bodies

Antisense oligonucleotides are powerful tools for the in vivo regulation of gene expression. We have characterized the intracellular distribution of fluorescently tagged phosphorothioate oligodeoxynucleotides (PS-ONs) at high resolution under conditions in which PS-ONs have the potential to display antisense activity. Under these conditions PS-ONs predominantly localized to the cell nucleus where they accumulated in 20-30 bright spherical foci designated phosphorothioate bodies (PS bodies), which were set against a diffuse nucleoplasmic population excluding nucleoli. PS bodies are nuclear structures that formed in cells after PS-ON delivery by transfection agents or microinjection but were observed irrespectively of antisense activity or sequence. Ultrastructurally, PS bodies corresponded to electron-dense structures of 150-300 nm diameter and resembled nuclear bodies that were found with lower frequency in cells lacking PS-ONs. The environment of a living cell was required for the de novo formation of PS bodies, which occurred within minutes after the introduction of PS-ONs. PS bodies were stable entities that underwent noticeable reorganization only during mitosis. Upon exit from mitosis, PS bodies were assembled de novo from diffuse PS-ON pools in the daughter nuclei. In situ fractionation demonstrated an association of PS-ONs with the nuclear matrix. Taken together, our data provide evidence for the formation of a nuclear body in cells after introduction of phosphorothioate oligodeoxynucleotides