Controls on earthquake rupture and triggering mechanisms in subduction zones

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution June 2010Large earthquake rupture and triggering mechanisms that drive seismicity in subduction zones are investigated in this thesis using a combination of earthquake observations, statistical and physical modeling. A comparison of the rupture characteristics of M ≥ 7.5 earthquakes with fore-arc geological structure suggests that long-lived frictional heterogeneities (asperities) are primary controls on the rupture extent of large earthquakes. To determine when and where stress is accumulating on the megathrust that could cause one of these asperities to rupture, this thesis develops a new method to invert earthquake catalogs to detect space-time variations in stressing rate. This algorithm is based on observations that strain transients due to aseismic processes such as fluid flow, slow slip, and afterslip trigger seismicity, often in the form of earthquake swarms. These swarms are modeled with two common approaches for investigating time-dependent driving mechanisms in earthquake catalogs: the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model [Ogata, 1988] and the physically-based rate-state friction model [Dieterich, 1994]. These approaches are combined into a single model that accounts for both aftershock activity and variations in background seismicity rate due to aseismic processes, which is then implemented in a data assimilation algorithm to invert catalogs for space-time variations in stressing rate. The technique is evaluated with a synthetic test and applied to catalogs from the Salton Trough in southern California and the Hokkaido corner in northeastern Japan. The results demonstrate that the algorithm can successfully identify aseismic transients in a multi-decade earthquake catalog, and may also ultimately be useful for mapping spatial variations in frictional conditions on the plate interface.Funding for this research was provided by a WHOI Hollister Research Fellowship, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship, National Science Foundation Division of Earth Sciences (EAR) grant #0738641, United States Geological Survey National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Award #G10AP00004, and the WHOI Academic Programs Office

Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): B06305, doi:10.1029/2010JB007537.Aseismic deformation transients such as fluid flow, magma migration, and slow slip can trigger changes in seismicity rate. We present a method that can detect these seismicity rate variations and utilize these anomalies to constrain the underlying variations in stressing rate. Because ordinary aftershock sequences often obscure changes in the background seismicity caused by aseismic processes, we combine the stochastic Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model that describes aftershock sequences well and the physically based rate- and state-dependent friction seismicity model into a single seismicity rate model that models both aftershock activity and changes in background seismicity rate. We implement this model into a data assimilation algorithm that inverts seismicity catalogs to estimate space-time variations in stressing rate. We evaluate the method using a synthetic catalog, and then apply it to a catalog of M ≥ 1.5 events that occurred in the Salton Trough from 1990 to 2009. We validate our stressing rate estimates by comparing them to estimates from a geodetically derived slip model for a large creep event on the Obsidian Buttes fault. The results demonstrate that our approach can identify large aseismic deformation transients in a multidecade long earthquake catalog and roughly constrain the absolute magnitude of the stressing rate transients. Our method can therefore provide a way to detect aseismic transients in regions where geodetic resolution in space or time is poor.This work was supported by NSF EAR grant 0738641 and USGS NEHRP grant G10AP00004

Interseismic coupling and seismic potential along the Central Andes subduction zone

We use about two decades of geodetic measurements to characterize interseismic strain build up along the Central Andes subduction zone from Lima, Peru, to Antofagasta, Chile. These measurements are modeled assuming a 3-plate model (Nazca, Andean sliver and South America Craton) and spatially varying interseismic coupling (ISC) on the Nazca megathrust interface. We also determine slip models of the 1996 M_w = 7.7 Nazca, the 2001 M_w = 8.4 Arequipa, the 2007 M_w = 8.0 Pisco and the M_w = 7.7 Tocopilla earthquakes. We find that the data require a highly heterogeneous ISC pattern and that, overall, areas with large seismic slip coincide with areas which remain locked in the interseismic period (with high ISC). Offshore Lima where the ISC is high, a M_w∼8.6–8.8 earthquake occurred in 1746. This area ruptured again in a sequence of four M_w∼8.0 earthquakes in 1940, 1966, 1974 and 2007 but these events released only a small fraction of the elastic strain which has built up since 1746 so that enough elastic strain might be available there to generate a M_w > 8.5 earthquake. The region where the Nazca ridge subducts appears to be mostly creeping aseismically in the interseismic period (low ISC) and seems to act as a permanent barrier as no large earthquake ruptured through it in the last 500 years. In southern Peru, ISC is relatively high and the deficit of moment accumulated since the M_w∼8.8 earthquake of 1868 is equivalent to a magnitude M_w∼8.4 earthquake. Two asperities separated by a subtle aseismic creeping patch are revealed there. This aseismic patch may arrest some rupture as happened during the 2001 Arequipa earthquake, but the larger earthquakes of 1604 and 1868 were able to rupture through it. In northern Chile, ISC is very high and the rupture of the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake has released only 4% of the elastic strain that has accumulated since 1877. The deficit of moment which has accumulated there is equivalent to a magnitude M_w∼8.7 earthquake. This study thus provides elements to assess the location, size and magnitude of future large megathurst earthquakes in the Central Andes subduction zone. Caveats of this study are that interseismic strain of the forearc is assumed time invariant and entirely elastic. Also a major source of uncertainty is due to fact that the available data place very little constraints on interseismic coupling at shallow depth near the trench, except offshore Lima where sea bottom geodetic measurements have been collected suggesting strong coupling

Earthquake swarms on transform faults

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 178 (2009): 1677-1690, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04214.x.Swarm-like earthquake sequences are commonly observed in a diverse range of geological settings including volcanic and geothermal regions as well as along transform plate boundaries. They typically lack a clear mainshock, cover an unusually large spatial area relative to their total seismic moment release, and fail to decay in time according to standard aftershock scaling laws. Swarms often result from a clear driving phenomenon, such as a magma intrusion, but most lack the necessary geophysical data to constrain their driving process. To identify the mechanisms that cause swarms on strike-slip faults, we use relative earthquake locations to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of swarms along Southern California and East Pacific Rise transform faults. Swarms in these regions exhibit distinctive characteristics, including a relatively narrow range of hypocentral migration velocities, on the order of a kilometre per hour. This rate corresponds to the rupture propagation velocity of shallow creep transients that are sometimes observed geodetically in conjunction with swarms, and is significantly faster than the earthquake migration rates typically associated with fluid diffusion. The uniformity of migration rates and low effective stress drops observed here suggest that shallow aseismic creep transients are the primary process driving swarms on strike-slip faults. Moreover, the migration rates are consistent with laboratory values of the rate-state friction parameter b (0.01) as long as the Salton Trough faults fail under hydrostatic conditions.The material presented here is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Division of Ocean Science (OCE) grant #0548785

Influence of fore-arc structure on the extent of great subduction zone earthquakes

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): B09301, doi:10.1029/2007JB004944.Structural features associated with fore-arc basins appear to strongly influence the rupture processes of large subduction zone earthquakes. Recent studies demonstrated that a significant percentage of the global seismic moment release on subduction zone thrust faults is concentrated beneath the gravity lows resulting from fore-arc basins. To better determine the nature of this correlation and to examine its effect on rupture directivity and termination, we estimated the rupture areas of a set of Mw 7.5–8.7 earthquakes that occurred in circum-Pacific subduction zones. We compare synthetic and observed seismograms by measuring frequency-dependent amplitude and arrival time differences of the first orbit Rayleigh waves. At low frequencies, the amplitude anomalies primarily result from the spatial and temporal extent of the rupture. We then invert the amplitude and arrival time measurements to estimate the second moments of the slip distribution which describe the rupture length, width, duration, and propagation velocity of each earthquake. Comparing the rupture areas to the trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA) above each rupture, we find that in 11 of the 15 events considered in this study the TPGA increases between the centroid and the limits of the rupture. Thus local increases in TPGA appear to be related to the physical conditions along the plate interface that favor rupture termination. Owing to the inherently long timescales required for fore-arc basin formation, the correlation between the TPGA field and rupture termination regions indicates that long-lived material heterogeneity rather than short timescale stress heterogeneities are responsible for arresting most great subduction zone ruptures.A. Llenos was supported by a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate fellowship

Effects of typical and atypical antipsychotic drugs on gene expression profiles in the liver of schizophrenia subjects

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although much progress has been made on antipsychotic drug development, precise mechanisms behind the action of typical and atypical antipsychotics are poorly understood.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed genome-wide expression profiling to study effects of typical antipsychotics and atypical antipsychotics in the postmortem liver of schizophrenia patients using microarrays (Affymetrix U133 plus2.0). We classified the subjects into typical antipsychotics (n = 24) or atypical antipsychotics (n = 26) based on their medication history, and compared gene expression profiles with unaffected controls (n = 34). We further analyzed individual antipsychotic effects on gene expression by sub-classifying the subjects into four major antipsychotic groups including haloperidol, phenothiazines, olanzapine and risperidone.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Typical antipsychotics affected genes associated with nuclear protein, stress responses and phosphorylation, whereas atypical antipsychotics affected genes associated with golgi/endoplasmic reticulum and cytoplasm transport. Comparison between typical antipsychotics and atypical antipsychotics further identified genes associated with lipid metabolism and mitochondrial function. Analyses on individual antipsychotics revealed a set of genes (151 transcripts, FDR adjusted p < 0.05) that are differentially regulated by four antipsychotics, particularly by phenothiazines, in the liver of schizophrenia patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Typical antipsychotics and atypical antipsychotics affect different genes and biological function in the liver. Typical antipsychotic phenothiazines exert robust effects on gene expression in the liver that may lead to liver toxicity. The genes found in the current study may benefit antipsychotic drug development with better therapeutic and side effect profiles.</p