A new daily observational record from Grytviken, South Georgia: exploring 20th century extremes in the South Atlantic

Although recent work has highlighted a host of significant late 20th century environmental changes across the mid to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, the sparse nature of observational records limits our ability to place these changes in the context of long-term (multi-decadal and centennial) variability. Historical records from sub-Antarctic islands offer considerable potential for developing highly resolved records of change. In 1905, a whaling and meteorological station was established at Grytviken on sub-Antarctic South Georgia in the South Atlantic (54°S, 36°W) providing near-continuous daily observations through to present day. Here we report a new, daily observational record of temperature and precipitation from Grytviken, which we compare to regional datasets and historical reanalysis (Twentieth Century Reanalysis; 20CR version 2c). We find a shift towards increasingly warmer daytime extremes commencing from the mid-20th century and accompanied by warmer night-time temperatures, with an average rate of temperature rise of 0.13°C per decade over the period 1907-2016 (p<0.0001). Analysis of these data, and reanalysis products, suggest a change of particular synoptic conditions across the mid to high-latitudes since the mid-20th century, characterised by stronger westerly airflow and associated warm föhn winds across South Georgia. This rapid rate of warming and associated declining habitat suitability has substantial negative implications for biodiversity levels and survival of key marine biota in the region

Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in preindustrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia

Precipitation from persistent extremes is increasing in most regions and globally

Extreme precipitation often persists for multiple days with variable duration but has usually been examined at fixed duration. Here we show that considering extreme persistent precipitation by complete event with variable duration, rather than a fixed temporal period, is a necessary metric to account for the complexity of changing precipitation. Observed global mean annual-maximum precipitation is significantly stronger (49.5%) for persistent extremes than daily extremes. However, both globally observed and modeled rates of relative increases are lower for persistent extremes compared to daily extremes, especially for Southern Hemisphere and large regions in the 0-45°N latitude band. Climate models also show significant differences in the magnitude and partly even the sign of local mean changes between daily and persistent extremes in global warming projections. Changes in extreme precipitation therefore are more complex than previously reported, and extreme precipitation events with varying duration should be taken into account for future climate change assessments

Globally observed annual precipitation maxima

This data is used to analyse the changes in the observed global extreme daily and persistent precipitation.Peer reviewe

Microbial activity, methane production, and carbon storage in Early Holocene North Sea peats

Northern latitude peatlands act as important carbon sources and sinks but little is known about the greenhouse 30 gas (GHG) budget of peatlands submerged beneath the North Sea during the last glacial-interglacial transition. We found that whilst peat formation was diachronous, commencing between 13,680 and 8,360 calibrated years before the present, stratigraphic layering and local vegetation succession were consistent across a large study area. The CH4 concentrations of the sediment pore waters were low at most sites, with the exception of two 35 locations, and the stored carbon was large. Incubation experiments in the laboratory revealed molecular signatures of methanogenic archaea, with strong increases in rates of activity upon methylated substrate amendment. Remarkably, methanotrophic activity and the respective diagnostic molecular signatures could be not be detected. Heterotrophic Bathyarchaeia dominated the 40 archaeal communities and bacterial populations were dominated by candidate phylum JS1 bacteria. Although CH4 accumulation is low at most sites, the presence of in situ methanogenic micro-organisms, the absence of methanotrophy, and large widespread stores of carbon hold the potential for GHG production if catalysed by a change in environmental conditions. Despite being earmarked as a critical source of CH4 seepage, 45 seepage from these basal-peat deposits is restricted, as evidenced by low in situ CH4 concentrations

Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate

Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.M.G.D. acknowledges support by the Horizon 2020 EUCP project under Grant Agreement 776613 and by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 Grant Reference RYC-2017-22964

Microbial activity, methane production, and carbon storage in Early Holocene North Sea peats

Northern latitude peatlands act as important carbon sources and sinks, but little is known about the greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets of peatlands that were submerged beneath the North Sea during the last glacial–interglacial transition. We found that whilst peat formation was diachronous, commencing between 13 680 and 8360 calibrated years before the present, stratigraphic layering and local vegetation succession were consistent across a large study area. Large carbon stores were measured. In situ methane (CH4) concentrations of sediment pore waters were widespread but low at most sites, with the exception of two locations. Incubation experiments in the laboratory revealed molecular signatures of methanogenic archaea, with strong increases in rates of activity upon methylated substrate amendment. Remarkably, methanotrophic activity and the respective diagnostic molecular signatures could not be detected. Heterotrophic Bathyarchaeota dominated the archaeal communities, and bacterial populations were dominated by candidate phylum JS1 bacteria. In the absence of active methanogenic microorganisms, we conclude that these sediment harbour low concentrations of widespread millennia-old CH4. The presence of large widespread stores of carbon and in situ methanogenic microorganisms, in the absence of methanotrophic microorganisms, holds the potential for microbial CH4 production if catalysed by a change in environmental conditions

Microbial activity, methane production, and carbon storage in Early Holocene North Sea peats

Northern latitude peatlands act as important carbon sources and sinks, but little is known about the greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets of peatlands that were submerged beneath the North Sea during the last glacial–interglacial transition. We found that whilst peat formation was diachronous, commencing between 13 680 and 8360 calibrated years before the present, stratigraphic layering and local vegetation succession were consistent across a large study area. Large carbon stores were measured. In situ methane (CH4) concentrations of sediment pore waters were widespread but low at most sites, with the exception of two locations. Incubation experiments in the laboratory revealed molecular signatures of methanogenic archaea, with strong increases in rates of activity upon methylated substrate amendment. Remarkably, methanotrophic activity and the respective diagnostic molecular signatures could not be detected. Heterotrophic Bathyarchaeota dominated the archaeal communities, and bacterial populations were dominated by candidate phylum JS1 bacteria. In the absence of active methanogenic microorganisms, we conclude that these sediment harbour low concentrations of widespread millennia-old CH4. The presence of large widespread stores of carbon and in situ methanogenic microorganisms, in the absence of methanotrophic microorganisms, holds the potential for microbial CH4 production if catalysed by a change in environmental conditions