Variation in Sex Allocation and Floral Morphology in an Expanding Distylous Plant Hybrid Complex

Premise of research. Sex allocation, the relative energy devoted to producing pollen, ovules, and floral displays, can significantly affect reproductive output and population dynamics. In this study, we investigated floral morphology and gamete production in bisexual, distylous plants from a self-incompatible hybrid complex (Piriqueta cistoides ssp. caroliniana Walter [Arbo]; Turneraceae). Sampling focused on two parent types (C, V) and their stable hybrid derivative (H). Since H morphotypes are heterotic for growth and fruit production, we hypothesized that they would produce larger flowers with more gametes. We also anticipated that plants with long styles (long morphs) would produce less pollen than short morphs, since long-morph pollen is larger. Methodology. Over two consecutive summers, flowers were collected from 1465 individual plants in 28 field populations. Floral parameters were measured digitally, and each flower’s pollen number, ovule number, and stigma-anther separation was quantified under a dissecting microscope. Gamete production (n = 332) and stigma-anther separation (n = 119) were also quantified for plants from a greenhouse accession. Pivotal results. Floral display differed among morphotypes, with H plants producing the largest flowers and C plants displaying the least petal separation. Hybrid morphotypes produced significantly more pollen than parental morphotypes, and pollen quantity was significantly greater for long morphs. Ovule production, however, was greatest for V flowers. Stigma-anther separation differed between years and style morphs (greater for short morphs) but not among morphotypes or within a single season. Conclusions. Differences in pollen production between morphs were not consistent with trade-offs in pollen size and number or selection for increased male function in short morphs. Greater stigma-anther separation in short morphs supported the hypothesis of selection to reduce pollen interference. Enhanced floral display and pollen production followed other heterotic traits observed in H morphotypes. The superior ability of H morphotypes to attract pollinators and sire seeds might partially explain this hybrid zone’s continuing expansion

Forecasting Elections

In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. We consider accuracy, bias and decidedness over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to outperform polls in terms of accuracy, unbiasedness and decidedness. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets

Galaxy bulges and their massive black holes: a review

With references to both key and oft-forgotten pioneering works, this article starts by presenting a review into how we came to believe in the existence of massive black holes at the centres of galaxies. It then presents the historical development of the near-linear (black hole)-(host spheroid) mass relation, before explaining why this has recently been dramatically revised. Past disagreement over the slope of the (black hole)-(velocity dispersion) relation is also explained, and the discovery of sub-structure within the (black hole)-(velocity dispersion) diagram is discussed. As the search for the fundamental connection between massive black holes and their host galaxies continues, the competing array of additional black hole mass scaling relations for samples of predominantly inactive galaxies are presented.Comment: Invited (15 Feb. 2014) review article (submitted 16 Nov. 2014). 590 references, 9 figures, 25 pages in emulateApJ format. To appear in "Galactic Bulges", E. Laurikainen, R.F. Peletier, and D.A. Gadotti (eds.), Springer Publishin

Longitudinal study of health, disease and access to care in rural Victoria: the Crossroads-II study: methods

Abstract Background High quality, contemporary data regarding patterns of chronic disease is essential for planning by health services, policy makers and local governments, but surprisingly scarce, including in rural Australia. This dearth of data occurs despite the recognition that rural Australians live with high rates of ill health, poor health behaviours and restricted access to health services. Crossroads-II is set in the Goulburn Valley, a rural region of Victoria, Australia 100–300 km north of metropolitan Melbourne. It is primarily an irrigated agricultural area. The aim of the study is to identify changes in the prevalence of key chronic health conditions including the extent of undiagnosed and undermanaged disease, and association with access to care, over a 15 year period. Methods/design This study is a 15 year follow up from the 2000–2003 Crossroads-I study (2376 households participated). Crossroads-II includes a similar face to face household survey of 3600 randomly selected households across four towns of sizes 6300 to 49,800 (50% sampled in the larger town with the remainder sampled equally from the three smaller towns). Self-reported health, health behaviour and health service usage information is verified and supplemented in a nested sub-study of 900 randomly selected adult participants in ‘clinics’ involving a range of additional questionnaires and biophysical measurements. The study is expected to run from October 2016 to December 2018. Discussion Besides providing epidemiological and health service utilisation information relating to different diseases and their risk factors in towns of different sizes, the results will be used to develop a composite measure of health service access. The importance of access to health services will be investigated by assessing the correlation of this measure with rates of undiagnosed and undermanaged disease at the mesh block level. Results will be shared with partner organisations to inform service planning and interventions to improve health outcomes for local people

Drivers and constraints on floral latitudinal diversification gradients

AimThe latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a primary emergent property of the biosphere, yet the cause(s) of this pattern are still debated. Key to many hypotheses is the origins and maintenance of tropical hyperdiversity, and the role of climate in driving low latitude speciation. Here, we analyse patterns of tropical and extratropical floral diversification and migration during the early Palaeogene “greenhouse” interval, to shed further light on the relationship between climatic change, latitude and floral diversity. LocationThe early Palaeogene, from ~63 to 42 million years ago, of the US Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP) and Colombia. TaxonTerrestrial plants, using pollen and spores as a proxy. MethodsWe analyse species diversity trends using coverage and sample size‐based interpolation and extrapolation, Chao1 estimated richness, and evenness metrics. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) modelling is used to estimate origination and extinction probabilities. Origination patterns on the GCP are separated into in situ speciation versus immigration. ResultsWhile Colombian (tropical) palynofloral richness and origination rates increased in conjunction with warming, GCP richness remained stable. The single rise in GCP origination rates, coincident with the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, was largely driven by the immigration of Eurasian taxa, rather than in situ origination, which was the case in Colombia. Main conclusionsThese results show that the relationships among climatic parameters and diversification and dispersal are not straightforward. While temperature may have driven diversification in the tropics, other factors, such as precipitation, insolation or biological interactions, may have constrained diversification in the extratropics. Furthermore, our results suggest that outward dispersal from the tropics was limited in the warm world of the early Palaeogene, with most GCP immigrants being sourced from other extratropical regions. These findings suggest that the tropics and extratropics may have functioned independently at this time

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Four groups made forecasts of the outcome of the Swedish Parliamentary election in the fall of 2006. They consisted of members of the public, political scientists, journalists writing about domestic politics in Swedish daily newspapers, and journalists who were editing sections of readers' letters in daily newspapers. They estimated, using a 12-step category scale, which percentage of the votes that they believed seven parties would get in the election. Data were then obtained on the outcome of the election, and on the two opinions polls closest in time to it. When median forecasts were compared across groups, it was found that the group from the public was most successful in forecasting the outcome of the election. This was in spite of the fact that the median error made by individual members of that group was about 50% larger than the median error made by members of other groups. The two polls were less efficient than the group from the public and overestimated the span between the incumbent government and the opposition by a factor of 2. The members of the public and journalists showed some wishful thinking in their forecasts. There were large and consistent individual differences in forecasting ability. Men performed better than women, as did those who expressed more interest and knowledge in politics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Oracion euangelica, declamacion piadosa al puro candor de Maria Santissima...

Port. con orla tip.La h. de grab. xil. orlada representa a la InmaculadaNo recogido en LopHue.Enc. Perg.Sign.: [ ]4, A-C4"Oracion euangelica, declamacion piadosa al puro candor de Maria Santissima..." del P. Juan Alegre, p. 9-2