Modeling the Mistakes of Boundedly Rational Agents Within a Bayesian Theory of Mind

When inferring the goals that others are trying to achieve, people intuitively understand that others might make mistakes along the way. This is crucial for activities such as teaching, offering assistance, and deciding between blame or forgiveness. However, Bayesian models of theory of mind have generally not accounted for these mistakes, instead modeling agents as mostly optimal in achieving their goals. As a result, they are unable to explain phenomena like locking oneself out of one's house, or losing a game of chess. Here, we extend the Bayesian Theory of Mind framework to model boundedly rational agents who may have mistaken goals, plans, and actions. We formalize this by modeling agents as probabilistic programs, where goals may be confused with semantically similar states, plans may be misguided due to resource-bounded planning, and actions may be unintended due to execution errors. We present experiments eliciting human goal inferences in two domains: (i) a gridworld puzzle with gems locked behind doors, and (ii) a block-stacking domain. Our model better explains human inferences than alternatives, while generalizing across domains. These findings indicate the importance of modeling others as bounded agents, in order to account for the full richness of human intuitive psychology.Comment: Accepted to CogSci 2021. 6 pages, 5 figures. (Appendix: 1 page, 1 figure

Impaired decision-making and brain shrinkage in alcoholism

Alcohol-dependent individuals usually favor instant gratification of alcohol use and ignore its long-term negative consequences, reflecting impaired decision-making. According to the somatic marker hypothesis, decision-making abilities are subtended by an extended brain network. As chronic alcohol consumption is known to be associated with brain shrinkage in this network, the present study investigated relationships between brain shrinkage and decision-making impairments in alcohol-dependent individuals early in abstinence using voxel-based morphometry. Thirty patients performed the Iowa Gambling Task and underwent a magnetic resonance imaging investigation (1.5T). Decision-making performances and brain data were compared with those of age-matched healthy controls. In the alcoholic group, a multiple regression analysis was conducted with two predictors (gray matter [GM] volume and decision-making measure) and two covariates (number of withdrawals and duration of alcoholism). Compared with controls, alcoholics had impaired decision-making and widespread reduced gray matter volume, especially in regions involved in decision-making. The regression analysis revealed links between high GM volume in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and right hippocampal formation, and high decision-making scores (P<0.001, uncorrected). Decision-making deficits in alcoholism may result from impairment of both emotional and cognitive networks

The impact of ageing reveals distinct roles for human dentate gyrus and CA3 in pattern separation and object recognition memory

© 2017 The Author(s). Both recognition of familiar objects and pattern separation, a process that orthogonalises overlapping events, are critical for effective memory. Evidence is emerging that human pattern separation requires dentate gyrus. Dentate gyrus is intimately connected to CA3 where, in animals, an autoassociative network enables recall of complete memories to underpin object/event recognition. Despite huge motivation to treat age-related human memory disorders, interaction between human CA3 and dentate subfields is difficult to investigate due to small size and proximity. We tested the hypothesis that human dentate gyrus is critical for pattern separation, whereas, CA3 underpins identical object recognition. Using 3 T MR hippocampal subfield volumetry combined with a behavioural pattern separation task, we demonstrate that dentate gyrus volume predicts accuracy and response time during behavioural pattern separation whereas CA3 predicts performance in object recognition memory. Critically, human dentate gyrus volume decreases with age whereas CA3 volume is age-independent. Further, decreased dentate gyrus volume, and no other subfield volume, mediates adverse effects of aging on memory. Thus, we demonstrate distinct roles for CA3 and dentate gyrus in human memory and uncover the variegated effects of human ageing across hippocampal regions. Accurate pinpointing of focal memory-related deficits will allow future targeted treatment for memory loss

Effect of the Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor FRM-0334 on Progranulin Levels in Patients With Progranulin Gene Haploinsufficiency: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Histone deacetylase inhibitors have been repeatedly shown to elevate progranulin levels in preclinical models. This report describes the first randomized clinical trial of a histone deacetylase inhibitor in frontotemporal dementia (FTD) resulting from progranulin (GRN) gene variations. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the safety, tolerability, plasma pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamic effects of oral FRM-0334 on plasma progranulin and other exploratory biomarkers, including fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET), in individuals with GRN haploinsufficiency. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-escalating, phase 2a safety, tolerability, and pharmacodynamic clinical study, 2 doses of a histone deacetylase inhibitor (FRM-0334) were administered to participants with prodromal to moderate FTD with granulin variations. Participants were recruited from January 13, 2015, to April 13, 2016. The study included 27 participants with prodromal (n = 8) or mild-to-moderate symptoms of FTD (n = 19) and heterozygous pathogenic variations in GRN and was conducted at multiple centers in North America, the UK, and the European Union. Data were analyzed from June 9, 2019, to May 13, 2021. INTERVENTIONS: Daily oral placebo (n = 5), 300 mg of FRM-0334 (n = 11), or 500 mg of FRM-0334 (n = 11) was administered for 28 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes were safety and tolerability of FRM-0334 and its peripheral pharmacodynamic effect on plasma progranulin. Secondary outcomes were the plasma pharmacokinetic profile of FRM-0334 and its pharmacodynamic effect on cerebrospinal fluid progranulin. Exploratory outcomes were FDG-PET, FTD clinical severity, and cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers (neurofilament light chain [NfL], amyloid β 1-42, phosphorylated tau 181, and total tau [t-tau]). RESULTS: A total of 27 participants (mean [SD] age, 56.6 [10.5] years; 16 women [59.3%]; 26 White participants [96.3%]) with GRN variations were randomized and completed treatment. FRM-0334 was safe and well tolerated but did not affect plasma progranulin (4.3 pg/mL per day change after treatment; 95% CI, -10.1 to 18.8 pg/mL; P = .56), cerebrospinal fluid progranulin (0.42 pg/mL per day; 95% CI, -0.12 to 0.95 pg/mL; P = .13), or exploratory pharmacodynamic measures. Plasma FRM-0334 exposure did not increase proportionally with dose. Brain FDG-PET data were available in 26 of 27 randomized participants. In a cross-sectional analysis of 26 individuals, bifrontal cortical FDG hypometabolism was associated with worse Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) plus National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center frontotemporal lobar degeneration sum of boxes score (b = -3.6 × 10-2 standardized uptake value ratio [SUVR] units/CDR units; 95% CI, -4.9 × 10-2 to -2.2 × 10-2; P < .001), high cerebrospinal fluid NfL (b = -9.2 × 10-5 SUVR units/pg NfL/mL; 95% CI, -1.3 × 10-4 to -5.6 × 10-5; P < .001), and high CSF t-tau (-7.2 × 10-4 SUVR units/pg t-tau/mL; 95% CI, -1.4 × 10-3 to -9.5 × 10-5; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this randomized clinical trial, the current formulation of FRM-0334 did not elevate PRGN levels, which could reflect a lack of efficacy at attained exposures, low bioavailability, or some combination of the 2 factors. Bifrontal FDG-PET is a sensitive measure of symptomatic GRN haploinsufficiency. International multicenter clinical trials of FTD-GRN are feasible. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02149160

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]

Evidence synthesis to inform model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests: a methodological systematic review of health technology assessments

Background: Evaluations of diagnostic tests are challenging because of the indirect nature of their impact on patient outcomes. Model-based health economic evaluations of tests allow different types of evidence from various sources to be incorporated and enable cost-effectiveness estimates to be made beyond the duration of available study data. To parameterize a health-economic model fully, all the ways a test impacts on patient health must be quantified, including but not limited to diagnostic test accuracy. Methods: We assessed all UK NIHR HTA reports published May 2009-July 2015. Reports were included if they evaluated a diagnostic test, included a model-based health economic evaluation and included a systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy. From each eligible report we extracted information on the following topics: 1) what evidence aside from test accuracy was searched for and synthesised, 2) which methods were used to synthesise test accuracy evidence and how did the results inform the economic model, 3) how/whether threshold effects were explored, 4) how the potential dependency between multiple tests in a pathway was accounted for, and 5) for evaluations of tests targeted at the primary care setting, how evidence from differing healthcare settings was incorporated. Results: The bivariate or HSROC model was implemented in 20/22 reports that met all inclusion criteria. Test accuracy data for health economic modelling was obtained from meta-analyses completely in four reports, partially in fourteen reports and not at all in four reports. Only 2/7 reports that used a quantitative test gave clear threshold recommendations. All 22 reports explored the effect of uncertainty in accuracy parameters but most of those that used multiple tests did not allow for dependence between test results. 7/22 tests were potentially suitable for primary care but the majority found limited evidence on test accuracy in primary care settings. Conclusions: The uptake of appropriate meta-analysis methods for synthesising evidence on diagnostic test accuracy in UK NIHR HTAs has improved in recent years. Future research should focus on other evidence requirements for cost-effectiveness assessment, threshold effects for quantitative tests and the impact of multiple diagnostic tests

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.]

Readiness to change and brain damage in patients with chronic alcoholism

International audienc