A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment

The report presents a review of methods used in Europe for trend analysis, climate change projections and non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. In addition, main findings of the analyses are presented, including a comparison of trend analysis results and climate change projections. Existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation that incorporate climate change are reviewed. The report concludes with a discussion of research needs on non-stationary frequency analysis for considering the effects of climate change and inclusion in design guidelines. Trend analyses are reported for 21 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. A large number of national and regional trend studies have been carried out. Most studies are based on statistical methods applied to individual time series of extreme precipitation or extreme streamflow using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test or regression analysis. Some studies have been reported that use field significance or regional consistency tests to analyse trends over larger areas. Some of the studies also include analysis of trend attribution. The studies reviewed indicate that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant increasing trends at regional or national level of extreme streamflow. For some smaller regions increases in extreme streamflow are reported. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows. Climate change projections have been reported for 14 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. The review shows various approaches for producing climate projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency based on alternative climate forcing scenarios, climate projections from available global and regional climate models, methods for statistical downscaling and bias correction, and alternative hydrological models. A large number of the reported studies are based on an ensemble modelling approach that use several climate forcing scenarios and climate model projections in order to address the uncertainty on the projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Some studies also include alternative statistical downscaling and bias correction methods and hydrological modelling approaches. Most studies reviewed indicate an increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trend of extreme precipitation. Hydrological projections of peak flows and flood frequency show both positive and negative changes. Large increases in peak flows are reported for some catchments with rainfall-dominated peak flows, whereas a general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are reported for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows. The latter is consistent with the observed trends. The review of existing guidelines in Europe on design floods and design rainfalls shows that only few countries explicitly address climate change. These design guidelines are based on climate change adjustment factors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on design return period and projection horizon. The review indicates a gap between the need for considering climate change impacts in design and actual published guidelines that incorporate climate change in extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Most of the studies reported are based on frequency analysis assuming stationary conditions in a certain time window (typically 30 years) representing current and future climate. There is a need for developing more consistent non-stationary frequency analysis methods that can account for the transient nature of a changing climate

Tilt Modulus and Angle-Dependent Flux Lattice Melting in the Lowest Landau Level Approximation

For a clean high-T$_c$ superconductor, we analyze the Lawrence-Doniach free energy in a tilted magnetic field within the lowest Landau level (LLL) approximation. The free energy maps onto that of a strictly $c$-axis field, but with a reduced interlayer coupling. We use this result to calculate the tilt modulus $C_{44}$ of a vortex lattice and vortex liquid. The vortex contribution to $C_{44}$ can be expressed in terms of the squared $c$-axis Josephson plasmon frequency $\omega_{pl}^2$. The transverse component of the field has very little effect on the position of the melting curve.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review B (Rapid Communications

The spiritual revolution and suicidal ideation: an empirical enquiry among 13- to 15-year-old adolescents in England and Wales

The association between conventional religiosity and suicide inhibition has been well explored and documented since the pioneering work of Durkheim. Commentators like Heelas and Woodhead point to ways in which conventional religiosity is giving way in England and Wales to a range of alternative spiritualities, including renewed interest in paranormal phenomena. Taking a sample of 3095 13- to 15-year-old adolescents, the present study examines the association between suicidal ideation and both conventional religiosity and paranormal beliefs, after controlling for individual differences in sex, age and personality (extraversion, neuroticism and psychoticism). The data demonstrate that, while conventional religiosity is slightly associated with lower levels of suicidal ideation, paranormal beliefs are strongly associated with higher levels of suicidal ideation

The UKIRT infrared deep sky survey early data release

This paper defines the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS) Early Data Release (EDR). UKIDSS is a set of five large near-infrared surveys being undertaken with the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope Wide Field Camera (WFCAM). The programme began in 2005 May and has an expected duration of 7 yr. Each survey uses some or all of the broad-band filter complement ZY JHK. The EDR is the first public release of data to the European Southern Observatory (ESO) community. All worldwide releases occur after a delay of 18 months from the ESO release. The EDR provides a small sample data set, ∼50 deg2 (about 1 per cent of the whole of UKIDSS), that is a lower limit to the expected quality of future survey data releases. In addition, an EDR+ data set contains all EDR data plus extra data of similar quality, but for areas not observed in all of the required filters (amounting to ∼220 deg2). The first large data release, DR1, will occur in mid-2006. We provide details of the observational implementation, the data reduction, the astrometric and photometric calibration and the quality control procedures. We summarize the data coverage and quality (seeing, ellipticity, photometricity, depth) for each survey and give a brief guide to accessing the images and catalogues from the WFCAM Science Archive

The First Magnetic Fields

We review current ideas on the origin of galactic and extragalactic magnetic fields. We begin by summarizing observations of magnetic fields at cosmological redshifts and on cosmological scales. These observations translate into constraints on the strength and scale magnetic fields must have during the early stages of galaxy formation in order to seed the galactic dynamo. We examine mechanisms for the generation of magnetic fields that operate prior during inflation and during subsequent phase transitions such as electroweak symmetry breaking and the quark-hadron phase transition. The implications of strong primordial magnetic fields for the reionization epoch as well as the first generation of stars is discussed in detail. The exotic, early-Universe mechanisms are contrasted with astrophysical processes that generate fields after recombination. For example, a Biermann-type battery can operate in a proto-galaxy during the early stages of structure formation. Moreover, magnetic fields in either an early generation of stars or active galactic nuclei can be dispersed into the intergalactic medium.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Pdf can be also downloaded from http://canopus.cnu.ac.kr/ryu/cosmic-mag1.pd

Planck intermediate results. VIII. Filaments between interacting clusters

About half of the baryons of the Universe are expected to be in the form of filaments of hot and low density intergalactic medium. Most of these baryons remain undetected even by the most advanced X-ray observatories which are limited in sensitivity to the diffuse low density medium. The Planck satellite has provided hundreds of detections of the hot gas in clusters of galaxies via the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect and is an ideal instrument for studying extended low density media through the tSZ effect. In this paper we use the Planck data to search for signatures of a fraction of these missing baryons between pairs of galaxy clusters. Cluster pairs are good candidates for searching for the hotter and denser phase of the intergalactic medium (which is more easily observed through the SZ effect). Using an X-ray catalogue of clusters and the Planck data, we select physical pairs of clusters as candidates. Using the Planck data we construct a local map of the tSZ effect centered on each pair of galaxy clusters. ROSAT data is used to construct X-ray maps of these pairs. After having modelled and subtracted the tSZ effect and X-ray emission for each cluster in the pair we study the residuals on both the SZ and X-ray maps. For the merging cluster pair A399-A401 we observe a significant tSZ effect signal in the intercluster region beyond the virial radii of the clusters. A joint X-ray SZ analysis allows us to constrain the temperature and density of this intercluster medium. We obtain a temperature of kT = 7.1 +- 0.9, keV (consistent with previous estimates) and a baryon density of (3.7 +- 0.2)x10^-4, cm^-3. The Planck satellite mission has provided the first SZ detection of the hot and diffuse intercluster gas.Comment: Accepted by A&

Multiwavelength studies of MHD waves in the solar chromosphere: An overview of recent results

The chromosphere is a thin layer of the solar atmosphere that bridges the relatively cool photosphere and the intensely heated transition region and corona. Compressible and incompressible waves propagating through the chromosphere can supply significant amounts of energy to the interface region and corona. In recent years an abundance of high-resolution observations from state-of-the-art facilities have provided new and exciting ways of disentangling the characteristics of oscillatory phenomena propagating through the dynamic chromosphere. Coupled with rapid advancements in magnetohydrodynamic wave theory, we are now in an ideal position to thoroughly investigate the role waves play in supplying energy to sustain chromospheric and coronal heating. Here, we review the recent progress made in characterising, categorising and interpreting oscillations manifesting in the solar chromosphere, with an impetus placed on their intrinsic energetics.Comment: 48 pages, 25 figures, accepted into Space Science Review

Epidemiology and Treatment Guidelines of Negative Symptoms in Schizo-phrenia in Central and Eastern Europe: A Literature Review

AIM: To gather and review data describing the epidemiology of schizophrenia and clinical guidelines for schizophrenia therapy in seven Central and Eastern European countries, with a focus on negative symptoms. Methods : A literature search was conducted which included publications from 1995 to 2012 that were indexed in key databases. Results : Reports of mean annual incidence of schizophrenia varied greatly, from 0.04 to 0.58 per 1,000 population. Lifetime prevalence varied from 0.4% to 1.4%. One study reported that at least one negative symptom was present in 57.6% of patients with schizophrenia and in 50-90% of individuals experiencing their first episode of schizophrenia. Primary negative symptoms were observed in 10-30% of patients. Mortality in patients with schizophrenia was greater than in the general population, with a standardized mortality ratio of 2.58-4.30. Reasons for higher risk of mortality in the schizophrenia population included increased suicide risk, effect of schizophrenia on lifestyle and environment, and presence of comorbidities. Clinical guidelines overall supported the use of second-generation antipsychotics in managing negative symptoms of schizophrenia, although improved therapeutic approaches are needed. Conclusion : Schizophrenia is one of the most common mental illnesses and poses a considerable burden on patients and healthcare resources alike. Negative symptoms are present in many patients and there is an unmet need to improve treatment offerings for negative symptoms beyond the use of second-generation antipsychotics and overall patient outcomes

Planck 2015 results. XXVII. The Second Planck Catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich Sources

We present the all-sky Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) sources detected from the 29 month full-mission data. The catalogue (PSZ2) is the largest SZ-selected sample of galaxy clusters yet produced and the deepest all-sky catalogue of galaxy clusters. It contains 1653 detections, of which 1203 are confirmed clusters with identified counterparts in external data-sets, and is the first SZ-selected cluster survey containing > $10^3$ confirmed clusters. We present a detailed analysis of the survey selection function in terms of its completeness and statistical reliability, placing a lower limit of 83% on the purity. Using simulations, we find that the Y5R500 estimates are robust to pressure-profile variation and beam systematics, but accurate conversion to Y500 requires. the use of prior information on the cluster extent. We describe the multi-wavelength search for counterparts in ancillary data, which makes use of radio, microwave, infra-red, optical and X-ray data-sets, and which places emphasis on the robustness of the counterpart match. We discuss the physical properties of the new sample and identify a population of low-redshift X-ray under- luminous clusters revealed by SZ selection. These objects appear in optical and SZ surveys with consistent properties for their mass, but are almost absent from ROSAT X-ray selected samples