A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment

The report presents a review of methods used in Europe for trend analysis, climate change projections and non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. In addition, main findings of the analyses are presented, including a comparison of trend analysis results and climate change projections. Existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation that incorporate climate change are reviewed. The report concludes with a discussion of research needs on non-stationary frequency analysis for considering the effects of climate change and inclusion in design guidelines. Trend analyses are reported for 21 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. A large number of national and regional trend studies have been carried out. Most studies are based on statistical methods applied to individual time series of extreme precipitation or extreme streamflow using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test or regression analysis. Some studies have been reported that use field significance or regional consistency tests to analyse trends over larger areas. Some of the studies also include analysis of trend attribution. The studies reviewed indicate that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant increasing trends at regional or national level of extreme streamflow. For some smaller regions increases in extreme streamflow are reported. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows. Climate change projections have been reported for 14 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. The review shows various approaches for producing climate projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency based on alternative climate forcing scenarios, climate projections from available global and regional climate models, methods for statistical downscaling and bias correction, and alternative hydrological models. A large number of the reported studies are based on an ensemble modelling approach that use several climate forcing scenarios and climate model projections in order to address the uncertainty on the projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Some studies also include alternative statistical downscaling and bias correction methods and hydrological modelling approaches. Most studies reviewed indicate an increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trend of extreme precipitation. Hydrological projections of peak flows and flood frequency show both positive and negative changes. Large increases in peak flows are reported for some catchments with rainfall-dominated peak flows, whereas a general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are reported for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows. The latter is consistent with the observed trends. The review of existing guidelines in Europe on design floods and design rainfalls shows that only few countries explicitly address climate change. These design guidelines are based on climate change adjustment factors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on design return period and projection horizon. The review indicates a gap between the need for considering climate change impacts in design and actual published guidelines that incorporate climate change in extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Most of the studies reported are based on frequency analysis assuming stationary conditions in a certain time window (typically 30 years) representing current and future climate. There is a need for developing more consistent non-stationary frequency analysis methods that can account for the transient nature of a changing climate

Optical control of nanoparticle catalysis influenced by photoswitch positioning in hybrid peptide capping ligands

YesHere we present an in-depth analysis of structural factors that modulate peptide-capped nanoparticle catalytic activity via optically driven structural reconfiguration of the biointerface present at the particle surface. Six different sets of peptide-capped Au nanoparticles were prepared, in which an azobenzene photoswitch was incorporated into one of two well-studied peptide sequences with known affinity for Au, each at one of three different positions: The N- or C-terminus, or mid-sequence. Changes in the photoswitch isomerization state induce a reversible structural change in the surface-bound peptide, which modulates the catalytic activity of the material. This control of reactivity is attributed to changes in the amount of accessible metallic surface area available to drive the reaction. This research specifically focuses on the effect of the peptide sequence and photoswitch position in the biomolecule, from which potential target systems for on/off reactivity have been identified. Additionally, trends associated with photoswitch position for a peptide sequence (Pd4) have been identified. Integrating the azobenzene at the N-terminus or central region results in nanocatalysts with greater reactivity in the trans and cis conformations, respectively; however, positioning the photoswitch at the C-terminus gives rise to a unique system that is reactive in the trans conformation and partially deactivated in the cis conformation. These results provide a fundamental basis for new directions in nanoparticle catalyst development to control activity in real time, which could have significant implications in the design of catalysts for multistep reactions using a single catalyst. Additionally, such a fine level of interfacial structural control could prove to be important for applications beyond catalysis, including biosensing, photonics, and energy technologies that are highly dependent on particle surface structures.Air Office of Scientific Research, grant number FA9550-12- 1-0226

Tilt Modulus and Angle-Dependent Flux Lattice Melting in the Lowest Landau Level Approximation

For a clean high-T$_c$ superconductor, we analyze the Lawrence-Doniach free energy in a tilted magnetic field within the lowest Landau level (LLL) approximation. The free energy maps onto that of a strictly $c$-axis field, but with a reduced interlayer coupling. We use this result to calculate the tilt modulus $C_{44}$ of a vortex lattice and vortex liquid. The vortex contribution to $C_{44}$ can be expressed in terms of the squared $c$-axis Josephson plasmon frequency $\omega_{pl}^2$. The transverse component of the field has very little effect on the position of the melting curve.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review B (Rapid Communications

The spiritual revolution and suicidal ideation: an empirical enquiry among 13- to 15-year-old adolescents in England and Wales

The association between conventional religiosity and suicide inhibition has been well explored and documented since the pioneering work of Durkheim. Commentators like Heelas and Woodhead point to ways in which conventional religiosity is giving way in England and Wales to a range of alternative spiritualities, including renewed interest in paranormal phenomena. Taking a sample of 3095 13- to 15-year-old adolescents, the present study examines the association between suicidal ideation and both conventional religiosity and paranormal beliefs, after controlling for individual differences in sex, age and personality (extraversion, neuroticism and psychoticism). The data demonstrate that, while conventional religiosity is slightly associated with lower levels of suicidal ideation, paranormal beliefs are strongly associated with higher levels of suicidal ideation

Factors associated with response to growth hormone in pediatric growth disorders: results of a 5-year registry analysis

Context Growth hormone (GH) therapy can increase linear growth in patients with growth hormone deficiency (GHD), Turner syndrome (TS), Noonan syndrome (NS), and Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS), although outcomes vary by disease state. Objective To assess growth and identify factors associated with growth response with long-term GH therapy. Methods Data from pediatric patients with GHD, TS, NS, and PWS obtained at GH treatment initiation (baseline) and annually for 5 years in the ANSWER Program and NordiNet® IOS were analyzed retrospectively. Height standard deviation score (HSDS) was assessed over time, and multivariate analyses determined variables with significant positive effects on growth outcomes in each patient cohort. Results Data from patients with GHD (n = 12 683), TS (n = 1307), NS (n = 203), and PWS (n = 102) were analyzed. HSDS increased over time during GH treatment in all cohorts. Factors with significant positive effects on ΔHSDS were younger age at GH initiation and lower HSDS at baseline (all cohorts) and higher GH dose (GHD and TS only); sex had no effect in any cohort. The modeling analysis showed that ΔHSDS was greatest in year 1 and attenuated over consecutive years through year 5. Estimated least-squares mean ΔHSDS values at year 5 by cohort were 1.702 (females) and 1.586 (males) in GHD, 1.033 in TS, 1.153 in NS, and 1.392 in PWS. Conclusion Long-term GH therapy results in large increases in HSDS in patients with GHD, TS, NS, and PWS. Greater gains in HSDS can be obtained with higher GH doses and earlier initiation of treatment

Precision Measurement of the Proton and Deuteron Spin Structure Functions g2 and Asymmetries A2

We have measured the spin structure functions g2p and g2d and the virtual photon asymmetries A2p and A2d over the kinematic range 0.02 < x < 0.8 and 0.7 < Q^2 < 20 GeV^2 by scattering 29.1 and 32.3 GeV longitudinally polarized electrons from transversely polarized NH3 and 6LiD targets. Our measured g2 approximately follows the twist-2 Wandzura-Wilczek calculation. The twist-3 reduced matrix elements d2p and d2n are less than two standard deviations from zero. The data are inconsistent with the Burkhardt-Cottingham sum rule if there is no pathological behavior as x->0. The Efremov-Leader-Teryaev integral is consistent with zero within our measured kinematic range. The absolute value of A2 is significantly smaller than the sqrt[R(1+A1)/2] limit.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

The First Magnetic Fields

We review current ideas on the origin of galactic and extragalactic magnetic fields. We begin by summarizing observations of magnetic fields at cosmological redshifts and on cosmological scales. These observations translate into constraints on the strength and scale magnetic fields must have during the early stages of galaxy formation in order to seed the galactic dynamo. We examine mechanisms for the generation of magnetic fields that operate prior during inflation and during subsequent phase transitions such as electroweak symmetry breaking and the quark-hadron phase transition. The implications of strong primordial magnetic fields for the reionization epoch as well as the first generation of stars is discussed in detail. The exotic, early-Universe mechanisms are contrasted with astrophysical processes that generate fields after recombination. For example, a Biermann-type battery can operate in a proto-galaxy during the early stages of structure formation. Moreover, magnetic fields in either an early generation of stars or active galactic nuclei can be dispersed into the intergalactic medium.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Pdf can be also downloaded from http://canopus.cnu.ac.kr/ryu/cosmic-mag1.pd

Planck intermediate results. VIII. Filaments between interacting clusters

About half of the baryons of the Universe are expected to be in the form of filaments of hot and low density intergalactic medium. Most of these baryons remain undetected even by the most advanced X-ray observatories which are limited in sensitivity to the diffuse low density medium. The Planck satellite has provided hundreds of detections of the hot gas in clusters of galaxies via the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect and is an ideal instrument for studying extended low density media through the tSZ effect. In this paper we use the Planck data to search for signatures of a fraction of these missing baryons between pairs of galaxy clusters. Cluster pairs are good candidates for searching for the hotter and denser phase of the intergalactic medium (which is more easily observed through the SZ effect). Using an X-ray catalogue of clusters and the Planck data, we select physical pairs of clusters as candidates. Using the Planck data we construct a local map of the tSZ effect centered on each pair of galaxy clusters. ROSAT data is used to construct X-ray maps of these pairs. After having modelled and subtracted the tSZ effect and X-ray emission for each cluster in the pair we study the residuals on both the SZ and X-ray maps. For the merging cluster pair A399-A401 we observe a significant tSZ effect signal in the intercluster region beyond the virial radii of the clusters. A joint X-ray SZ analysis allows us to constrain the temperature and density of this intercluster medium. We obtain a temperature of kT = 7.1 +- 0.9, keV (consistent with previous estimates) and a baryon density of (3.7 +- 0.2)x10^-4, cm^-3. The Planck satellite mission has provided the first SZ detection of the hot and diffuse intercluster gas.Comment: Accepted by A&

Planck 2015 results. XXVII. The Second Planck Catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich Sources

We present the all-sky Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) sources detected from the 29 month full-mission data. The catalogue (PSZ2) is the largest SZ-selected sample of galaxy clusters yet produced and the deepest all-sky catalogue of galaxy clusters. It contains 1653 detections, of which 1203 are confirmed clusters with identified counterparts in external data-sets, and is the first SZ-selected cluster survey containing > $10^3$ confirmed clusters. We present a detailed analysis of the survey selection function in terms of its completeness and statistical reliability, placing a lower limit of 83% on the purity. Using simulations, we find that the Y5R500 estimates are robust to pressure-profile variation and beam systematics, but accurate conversion to Y500 requires. the use of prior information on the cluster extent. We describe the multi-wavelength search for counterparts in ancillary data, which makes use of radio, microwave, infra-red, optical and X-ray data-sets, and which places emphasis on the robustness of the counterpart match. We discuss the physical properties of the new sample and identify a population of low-redshift X-ray under- luminous clusters revealed by SZ selection. These objects appear in optical and SZ surveys with consistent properties for their mass, but are almost absent from ROSAT X-ray selected samples

Multiwavelength studies of MHD waves in the solar chromosphere: An overview of recent results

The chromosphere is a thin layer of the solar atmosphere that bridges the relatively cool photosphere and the intensely heated transition region and corona. Compressible and incompressible waves propagating through the chromosphere can supply significant amounts of energy to the interface region and corona. In recent years an abundance of high-resolution observations from state-of-the-art facilities have provided new and exciting ways of disentangling the characteristics of oscillatory phenomena propagating through the dynamic chromosphere. Coupled with rapid advancements in magnetohydrodynamic wave theory, we are now in an ideal position to thoroughly investigate the role waves play in supplying energy to sustain chromospheric and coronal heating. Here, we review the recent progress made in characterising, categorising and interpreting oscillations manifesting in the solar chromosphere, with an impetus placed on their intrinsic energetics.Comment: 48 pages, 25 figures, accepted into Space Science Review