Focus on stochastic flows and climate statistics

The atmosphere and ocean are examples of dynamical systems that evolve in accordance with the laws of physics. Therefore, climate science is a branch of physics that is just as valid and important as the more traditional branches, which include particle physics, condensed-matter physics, and statistical mechanics. This 'focus on' collection of New Journal of Physics brings together original research articles from leading groups that advance our understanding of the physics of climate. Areas of climate science that can particularly benefit from input by physicists are emphasised. The collection brings together articles on stochastic models, turbulence, quasi-linear approximations, climate statistics, statistical mechanics of atmospheres and oceans, jet formation, and reduced-form climate models. The hope is that the issue will encourage more physicists to think about the climate problem

Southern Ocean drives multidecadal atmospheric CO2 rise during Heinrich Stadials

The last glacial period was punctuated by cold intervals in the North Atlantic region that culminated in extensive iceberg discharge events. These cold intervals, known as Heinrich Stadials, are associated with abrupt climate shifts worldwide. Here, we present CO2 measurements from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core across Heinrich Stadials 2 to 5 at decadal-scale resolution. Our results reveal multi-decadal-scale jumps in atmospheric CO2 concentrations within each Heinrich Stadial. The largest magnitude of change (14.0 ± 0.8 ppm within 55 ± 10 y) occurred during Heinrich Stadial 4. Abrupt rises in atmospheric CO2 are concurrent with jumps in atmospheric CH4 and abrupt changes in the water isotopologs in multiple Antarctic ice cores, the latter of which suggest rapid warming of both Antarctica and Southern Ocean vapor source regions. The synchroneity of these rapid shifts points to wind-driven upwelling of relatively warm, carbon-rich waters in the Southern Ocean, likely linked to a poleward intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Using an isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model, we show that observed changes in Antarctic water isotopologs can be explained by abrupt and widespread Southern Ocean warming. Our work presents evidence for a multi-decadal- to century-scale response of the Southern Ocean to changes in atmospheric circulation, demonstrating the potential for dynamic changes in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and circulation on human timescales. Furthermore, it suggests that anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean may weaken with poleward strengthening westerlies today and into the future.Peer reviewe

Direct and Inverse Computation of Jacobi Matrices of Infinite Homogeneous Affine I.F.S

We introduce a new set of algorithms to compute Jacobi matrices associated with measures generated by infinite systems of iterated functions. We demonstrate their relevance in the study of theoretical problems, such as the continuity of these measures and the logarithmic capacity of their support. Since our approach is based on a reversible transformation between pairs of Jacobi matrices, we also discuss its application to an inverse / approximation problem. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithms are stable and can reliably compute Jacobi matrices of large order.Comment: 20 pages 6 figure

Web‐based Weight Management Programs in an Integrated Health Care Setting: A Randomized, Controlled Trial

Objective : To assess the efficacy of a Web‐based tailored behavioral weight management program compared with Web‐based information‐only weight management materials. Research Methods and Procedures : Participants, 2862 eligible overweight and obese (BMI = 27 to 40 kg/m 2 ) members from four regions of Kaiser Permanente's integrated health care delivery system, were randomized to receive either a tailored expert system or information‐only Web‐based weight management materials. Weight change and program satisfaction were assessed by self‐report through an Internet‐based survey at 3‐ and 6‐month follow‐up periods. Results : Significantly greater weight loss at follow‐up was found among participants assigned to the tailored expert system than among those assigned to the information‐only condition. Subjects in the tailored expert system lost a mean of 3 ± 0.3% of their baseline weight, whereas subjects in the information‐only condition lost a mean of 1.2 ± 0.4% ( p < 0.0004). Participants were also more likely to report that the tailored expert system was personally relevant, helpful, and easy to understand. Notably, 36% of enrollees were African‐American, with enrollment rates higher than the general proportion of African Americans in any of the study regions. Discussion : The results of this large, randomized control trial show the potential benefit of the Web‐based tailored expert system for weight management compared with a Web‐based information‐only weight management program.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/93691/1/oby.2006.34.pd

Genome-wide association Scan of dental caries in the permanent dentition

Background: Over 90% of adults aged 20 years or older with permanent teeth have suffered from dental caries leading to pain, infection, or even tooth loss. Although caries prevalence has decreased over the past decade, there are still about 23% of dentate adults who have untreated carious lesions in the US. Dental caries is a complex disorder affected by both individual susceptibility and environmental factors. Approximately 35-55% of caries phenotypic variation in the permanent dentition is attributable to genes, though few specific caries genes have been identified. Therefore, we conducted the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genes affecting susceptibility to caries in adults. Methods: Five independent cohorts were included in this study, totaling more than 7000 participants. For each participant, dental caries was assessed and genetic markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs) were genotyped or imputed across the entire genome. Due to the heterogeneity among the five cohorts regarding age, genotyping platform, quality of dental caries assessment, and study design, we first conducted genome-wide association (GWA) analyses on each of the five independent cohorts separately. We then performed three meta-analyses to combine results for: (i) the comparatively younger, Appalachian cohorts (N = 1483) with well-assessed caries phenotype, (ii) the comparatively older, non-Appalachian cohorts (N = 5960) with inferior caries phenotypes, and (iii) all five cohorts (N = 7443). Top ranking genetic loci within and across meta-analyses were scrutinized for biologically plausible roles on caries. Results: Different sets of genes were nominated across the three meta-analyses, especially between the younger and older age cohorts. In general, we identified several suggestive loci (P-value ≤ 10E-05) within or near genes with plausible biological roles for dental caries, including RPS6KA2 and PTK2B, involved in p38-depenedent MAPK signaling, and RHOU and FZD1, involved in the Wnt signaling cascade. Both of these pathways have been implicated in dental caries. ADMTS3 and ISL1 are involved in tooth development, and TLR2 is involved in immune response to oral pathogens. Conclusions: As the first GWAS for dental caries in adults, this study nominated several novel caries genes for future study, which may lead to better understanding of cariogenesis, and ultimately, to improved disease predictions, prevention, and/or treatment

Genetic association study of QT interval highlights role for calcium signaling pathways in myocardial repolarization.

The QT interval, an electrocardiographic measure reflecting myocardial repolarization, is a heritable trait. QT prolongation is a risk factor for ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) and could indicate the presence of the potentially lethal mendelian long-QT syndrome (LQTS). Using a genome-wide association and replication study in up to 100,000 individuals, we identified 35 common variant loci associated with QT interval that collectively explain ∼8-10% of QT-interval variation and highlight the importance of calcium regulation in myocardial repolarization. Rare variant analysis of 6 new QT interval-associated loci in 298 unrelated probands with LQTS identified coding variants not found in controls but of uncertain causality and therefore requiring validation. Several newly identified loci encode proteins that physically interact with other recognized repolarization proteins. Our integration of common variant association, expression and orthogonal protein-protein interaction screens provides new insights into cardiac electrophysiology and identifies new candidate genes for ventricular arrhythmias, LQTS and SCD

A statistical model for the identification of genes governing the incidence of cancer with age

The cancer incidence increases with age. This epidemiological pattern of cancer incidence can be attributed to molecular and cellular processes of individual subjects. Also, the incidence of cancer with ages can be controlled by genes. Here we present a dynamic statistical model for explaining the epidemiological pattern of cancer incidence based on individual genes that regulate cancer formation and progression. We incorporate the mathematical equations of age-specific cancer incidence into a framework for functional mapping aimed at identifying quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for dynamic changes of a complex trait. The mathematical parameters that specify differences in the curve of cancer incidence among QTL genotypes are estimated within the context of maximum likelihood. The model provides testable quantitative hypotheses about the initiation and duration of genetic expression for QTLs involved in cancer progression. Computer simulation was used to examine the statistical behavior of the model. The model can be used as a tool for explaining the epidemiological pattern of cancer incidence