Climate change in Italy indicated by agrometeorological indices over 122 years

To determine the risk of climate change for agriculture it is necessary to define a set of agrometeorological parameters, derived from the classic climate parameters, that are capable of indicating the consequences of climate change for crop production. In this study high-quality daily rainfall, evaporation and mean, minimum and maximum temperature data collected since 1878 at the meteorological station of the Department of Agronomy and Agroecosystem Management of the University of Pisa, Italy (H = 6 in a.s.l.; latitude = 43degrees41'; longitude = 10degrees23'E) were used to calculate extreme temperature and rainfall events, frost risk, flooding risk and drought risk. Time trends for all variables were analysed using linear regression techniques. Results indicate that the changes in extreme events in Pisa have not changed in a way that is likely to negatively affect crop production. The risk of crop damage due to frost has decreased and sowing time in spring can safely be anticipated. The soil moisture surplus (SMS) and theoretical irrigation requirement (TIR) have not changed despite a decreasing rainfall trend. The number of soil moisture surplus days in autumn has decreased indicating a decrease in flooding risk, which can have a positive effect on soil workability. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Polymorphisms in the cytochrome P450 genes CYP1A2, CYP1B1, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, CYP11A1, CYP17A1, CYP19A1 and colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND: Cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes have the potential to affect colorectal cancer (CRC) risk by determining the genotoxic impact of exogenous carcinogens and levels of sex hormones. METHODS: To investigate if common variants of CYP1A2, CYP1B1, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, CYP11A1, CYP17A1 and CYP19A1 influence CRC risk we genotyped 2,575 CRC cases and 2,707 controls for 20 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that have not previously been shown to have functional consequence within these genes. RESULTS: There was a suggestion of increased risk, albeit insignificant after correction for multiple testing, of CRC for individuals homozygous for CYP1B1 rs162558 and heterozygous for CYP1A2 rs2069522 (odds ratio [OR] = 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.80 and OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.00-1.79 respectively). CONCLUSION: This study provides some support for polymorphic variation in CYP1A2 and CYP1B1 playing a role in CRC susceptibility

Cost impact of procalcitonin-guided decision making on duration of antibiotic therapy for suspected early-onset sepsis in neonates

Abstract Backgrounds The large, international, randomized controlled NeoPInS trial showed that procalcitonin (PCT)-guided decision making was superior to standard care in reducing the duration of antibiotic therapy and hospitalization in neonates suspected of early-onset sepsis (EOS), without increased adverse events. This study aimed to perform a cost-minimization study of the NeoPInS trial, comparing health care costs of standard care and PCT-guided decision making based on the NeoPInS algorithm, and to analyze subgroups based on country, risk category and gestational age. Methods Data from the NeoPInS trial in neonates born after 34 weeks of gestational age with suspected EOS in the first 72 h of life requiring antibiotic therapy were used. We performed a cost-minimization study of health care costs, comparing standard care to PCT-guided decision making. Results In total, 1489 neonates were included in the study, of which 754 were treated according to PCT-guided decision making and 735 received standard care. Mean health care costs of PCT-guided decision making were not significantly different from costs of standard care (€3649 vs. €3616). Considering subgroups, we found a significant reduction in health care costs of PCT-guided decision making for risk category ‘infection unlikely’ and for gestational age ≥ 37 weeks in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the Czech Republic, and for gestational age < 37 weeks in the Czech Republic. Conclusions Health care costs of PCT-guided decision making of term and late-preterm neonates with suspected EOS are not significantly different from costs of standard care. Significant cost reduction was found for risk category ‘infection unlikely,’ and is affected by both the price of PCT-testing and (prolonged) hospitalization due to SAEs

Machine learning used to compare the diagnostic accuracy of risk factors, clinical signs and biomarkers and to develop a new prediction model for neonatal early-onset sepsis

Background: Current strategies for risk stratification and prediction of neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) are inefficient and lack diagnostic performance. The aim of this study was to use machine learning to analyze the diagnostic accuracy of risk factors (RFs), clinical signs and biomarkers and to develop a prediction model for culture-proven EOS. We hypothesized that the contribution to diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers is higher than of RFs or clinical signs. Study Design: Secondary analysis of the prospective international multicenter NeoPInS study. Neonates born after completed 34 weeks of gestation with antibiotic therapy due to suspected EOS within the first 72 hours of life participated. Primary outcome was defined as predictive performance for culture-proven EOS with variables known at the start of antibiotic therapy. Machine learning was used in form of a random forest classifier. Results: One thousand six hundred eighty-five neonates treated for suspected infection were analyzed. Biomarkers were superior to clinical signs and RFs for prediction of culture-proven EOS. C-reactive protein and white blood cells were most important for the prediction of the culture result. Our full model achieved an area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve of 83.41% (±8.8%) and an area-under-the-precision-recall-curve of 28.42% (±11.5%). The predictive performance of the model with RFs alone was comparable with random. Conclusions: Biomarkers have to be considered in algorithms for the management of neonates suspected of EOS. A 2-step approach with a screening tool for all neonates in combination with our model in the preselected population with an increased risk for EOS may have the potential to reduce the start of unnecessary antibiotics

The interplay of landscape composition and configuration: new pathways to manage functional biodiversity and agroecosystem services across Europe

Managing agricultural landscapes to support biodiversity and ecosystem services is a key aim of a sustainable agriculture. However, how the spatial arrangement of crop fields and other habitats in landscapes impacts arthropods and their functions is poorly known. Synthesising data from 49 studies (1515 landscapes) across Europe, we examined effects of landscape composition (% habitats) and configuration (edge density) on arthropods in fields and their margins, pest control, pollination and yields. Configuration effects interacted with the proportions of crop and non‐crop habitats, and species’ dietary, dispersal and overwintering traits led to contrasting responses to landscape variables. Overall, however, in landscapes with high edge density, 70% of pollinator and 44% of natural enemy species reached highest abundances and pollination and pest control improved 1.7‐ and 1.4‐fold respectively. Arable‐dominated landscapes with high edge densities achieved high yields. This suggests that enhancing edge density in European agroecosystems can promote functional biodiversity and yield‐enhancing ecosystem services

C-Reactive Protein, Procalcitonin, and White Blood Count to Rule Out Neonatal Early-onset Sepsis Within 36 Hours: A Secondary Analysis of the Neonatal Procalcitonin Intervention Study.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) is one of the main causes of global neonatal mortality and morbidity, and initiation of early antibiotic treatment is key. However, antibiotics may be harmful. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of results from the Neonatal Procalcitonin Intervention Study, a prospective, multicenter, randomized, controlled intervention study. The primary outcome was the diagnostic accuracy of serial measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and white blood count (WBC) within different time windows to rule out culture-positive EOS (proven sepsis). RESULTS: We analyzed 1678 neonates with 10 899 biomarker measurements (4654 CRP, 2047 PCT, and 4198 WBC) obtained within the first 48 hours after the start of antibiotic therapy due to suspected EOS. The areas under the curve (AUC) comparing no sepsis vs proven sepsis for maximum values of CRP, PCT, and WBC within 36 hours were 0.986, 0.921, and 0.360, respectively. The AUCs for CRP and PCT increased with extended time frames up to 36 hours, but there was no further difference between start to 36 hours vs start to 48 hours. Cutoff values at 16 mg/L for CRP and 2.8 ng/L for PCT provided a sensitivity of 100% for discriminating no sepsis vs proven sepsis. CONCLUSIONS: Normal serial CRP and PCT measurements within 36 hours after the start of empiric antibiotic therapy can exclude the presence of neonatal EOS with a high probability. The negative predictive values of CRP and PCT do not increase after 36 hours

Druggable growth dependencies and tumor evolution analysis in patient-derived organoids of neuroendocrine neoplasms from multiple body sites

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) comprise well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) and poorly differentiated neuroendocrine carcinomas (NECs). Treatment options for patients with NENs are limited, in part due to lack of accurate models. We establish patient-derived tumor organoids (PDTOs) from pulmonary NETs and derive PDTOs from an understudied subtype of NEC, large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (LCNEC), arising from multiple body sites. PDTOs maintain the gene expression patterns, intra-tumoral heterogeneity, and evolutionary processes of parental tumors. Through hypothesis-driven drug sensitivity analyses, we identify ASCL1 as a potential biomarker for response of LCNEC to treatment with BCL-2 inhibitors. Additionally, we discover a dependency on EGF in pulmonary NET PDTOs. Consistent with these findings, we find that, in an independent cohort, approximately 50% of pulmonary NETs express EGFR. This study identifies an actionable vulnerability for a subset of pulmonary NETs, emphasizing the utility of these PDTO models

Integrative and comparative genomic analyses identify clinically relevant pulmonary carcinoid groups and unveil the supra-carcinoids

International audienceThe worldwide incidence of pulmonary carcinoids is increasing, but little is known about their molecular characteristics. Through machine learning and multi-omics factor analysis, we compare and contrast the genomic profiles of 116 pulmonary carcinoids (including 35 atypical), 75 large-cell neuroendocrine carcinomas (LCNEC), and 66 small-cell lung cancers. Here we report that the integrative analyses on 257 lung neuroendocrine neoplasms stratify atypical carcinoids into two prognostic groups with a 10-year overall survival of 88% and 27%, respectively. We identify therapeutically relevant molecular groups of pulmonary car-cinoids, suggesting DLL3 and the immune system as candidate therapeutic targets; we confirm the value of OTP expression levels for the prognosis and diagnosis of these diseases, and we unveil the group of supra-carcinoids. This group comprises samples with carcinoid-like morphology yet the molecular and clinical features of the deadly LCNEC, further supporting the previously proposed molecular link between the low-and high-grade lung neuroendocrine neoplasms