Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Chronic Kidney Disease in HIV Infection Using Prospective Cohort Data from the D:A:D Study

Ristola M. on työryhmien DAD Study Grp ; Royal Free Hosp Clin Cohort ; INSIGHT Study Grp ; SMART Study Grp ; ESPRIT Study Grp jäsen.Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. Methods and Findings A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with >= 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1: 393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score = 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria. Conclusions Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.Peer reviewe

Evaluation Of The Pig-Tailed Macaque (Macaca Nemestrina) As A Model Of Human Staphylococcus Aureus Nasal Carriage

Staphylococcus aureus nasal carriage is a common condition affecting both healthy and immunocompromised populations and provides a reservoir for dissemination of potentially infectious strains by casual contact. The factors regulating the onset and duration of nasal S. aureus colonization are mostly unknown, and a human-relevant animal model is needed. Here, we screened 17 pig-tailed macaques (Macaca nemestrina) for S. aureus carriage, and 14 of 17 animals tested positive in the nose at one or both screening sessions (8 weeks apart), while the other 3 animals were negative in the nose but positive in the pharynx at least once. As in humans, S. aureus colonization was densest in the nose, and treatment of the nostrils with mupirocin ointment effectively cleared the nostrils and 6 extranasal body sites. Experimental nasal S. aureus colonization was established with 104 CFU/nostril, and both autologous and nonautologous strains survived over 40 days without any apparent adverse effects. A human nasal S. aureus isolate (strain D579, sequence type 398) was carried in 4 of 6 animals for over 3 weeks. Nostrils that did eradicate experimentally applied S. aureus exhibited neutrophilic innate immunity marked by elevated nasal interleukin-1β (IL-1β), IL-8, and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 levels and a 10-fold decreased IL-1 receptor antagonist/IL-1β ratio within 7 days postinoculation, analogous to the human condition. Taken together, pig-tailed macaques represent a physiological model of human S. aureus nasal carriage that may be utilized for testing natural colonization and decolonization mechanisms as well as novel classes of anti-S. aureus therapeutics