How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: A focus on effects at national parks

We use a global coupled chemistry-climate-land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 in the United States with a focus on national parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emission reductions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m-3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m-3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10-15 dv; >75 km in visibility range), although some western US parks with Class I status (40-74 % of total sites in the US) are still above the 2050 planned target level to reach the goal of natural visibility conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study indicates that anthropogenic emission patterns will be important for air quality in 2050. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2-3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making

A 60 yr record of atmospheric carbon monoxide reconstructed from Greenland firn air

We present the first reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitude atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) mole fraction from Greenland firn air. Firn air samples were collected at three deep ice core sites in Greenland (NGRIP in 2001, Summit in 2006 and NEEM in 2008). CO records from the three sites agree well with each other as well as with recent atmospheric measurements, indicating that CO is well preserved in the firn at these sites. CO atmospheric history was reconstructed back to the year 1950 from the measurements using a combination of two forward models of gas transport in firn and an inverse model. The reconstructed history suggests that Arctic CO in 1950 was 140–150 nmol mol-1, which is higher than today's values. CO mole fractions rose by 10–15 nmol mol-1 from 1950 to the 1970s and peaked in the 1970s or early 1980s, followed by a ˜ 30 nmol mol-1 decline to today's levels. We compare the CO history with the atmospheric histories of methane, light hydrocarbons, molecular hydrogen, CO stable isotopes and hydroxyl radicals (OH), as well as with published CO emission inventories and results of a historical run from a chemistry-transport model. We find that the reconstructed Greenland CO history cannot be reconciled with available emission inventories unless unrealistically large changes in OH are assumed. We argue that the available CO emission inventories strongly underestimate historical NH emissions, and fail to capture the emission decline starting in the late 1970s, which was most likely due to reduced emissions from road transportation in North America and Europe

Modelling the Inorganic Bromine Partitioning in the Tropical Tropopause over the Pacific Ocean

The stratospheric inorganic bromine burden (Bry) arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSL org ), and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species, is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modelled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSL org of two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013 carried out over eastern Pacific and ATTREX 2014 carried out over the western Pacific) and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks) using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem), we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights BrO represents ~ 43 % and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the Western and Eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br/BrO >1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA), ozone concentration and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO 2 were found to be the dominant night-time species with ~ 61% and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the Western and Eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) , and total inorganic chlorine (Cly).Fil: Navarro, María A.. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Saiz-lopez, Alfonso. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Instituto de Química Física; EspañaFil: Cuevas, Carlos Alberto. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Instituto de Química Física; EspañaFil: Fernandez, Rafael Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Universidad Tecnologica Nacional. Facultad Regional Mendoza. Secretaría de Ciencia, Tecnología y Postgrado; ArgentinaFil: Atlas, Elliot. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Rodriguez Lloeveras, Xavier. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Instituto de Química Física; EspañaFil: Kinnison, Douglas E.. National Center For Atmospheric Research. Amospheric Chemistry División; Estados UnidosFil: Lamarque, Jean Francois. National Center For Atmospheric Research. Amospheric Chemistry División; Estados UnidosFil: Tilmes, Simone. National Center For Atmospheric Research. Amospheric Chemistry División; Estados UnidosFil: Thornberry, Troy. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Rollins, Andrew. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Elkins, James W.. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Hintsa, Eric J.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Moore, Fred L.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados Unido

Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change

Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union. 0148-0227/08/2007JD009092The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere-land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is updated with recent laboratory determined yields for SOA formation from monoterpene oxidation, isoprene photooxidation and aromatic photooxidation. Biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes are simulated interactively using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols (MEGAN2) within the Community Land Model (CLM3). The global mean SOA burden is predicted to increase by 36% in 2100, primarily the result of rising biogenic and anthropogenic emissions which independently increase the burden by 26% and 7%. The later includes enhanced biogenic SOA formation due to increased emissions of primary organic aerosol (5–25% increases in surface SOA concentrations in 2100). Climate change alone (via temperature, removal rates, and oxidative capacity) does not change the global mean SOA production, but the global burden increases by 6%. The global burden of anthropogenic SOA experiences proportionally more growth than biogenic SOA in 2100 from the net effect of climate and emissions (67% increase predicted). Projected anthropogenic land use change for 2100 (A2) is predicted to reduce the global SOA burden by 14%, largely the result of cropland expansion. South America is the largest global source region for SOA in the present day and 2100, but Asia experiences the largest relative growth in SOA production by 2100 because of the large predicted increases in Asian anthropogenic aromatic emissions. The projected decrease in global sulfur emissions implies that SOA will contribute a progressively larger fraction of the global aerosol burden

The impact of bark beetle infestations on monoterpene emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation in western North America

Over the last decade, extensive beetle outbreaks in western North America have destroyed over 100 000 km2 of forest throughout British Columbia and the western United States. Beetle infestations impact monoterpene emissions through both decreased emissions as trees are killed (mortality effect) and increased emissions in trees under attack (attack effect). We use 14 yr of beetle-induced tree mortality data together with beetle-induced monoterpene emission data in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate the impact of beetle-induced tree mortality and attack on monoterpene emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in western North America. Regionally, beetle infestations may have a significant impact on monoterpene emissions and SOA concentrations, with up to a 4-fold increase in monoterpene emissions and up to a 40% increase in SOA concentrations in some years (in a scenario where the attack effect is based on observed lodgepole pine response). Responses to beetle attack depend on the extent of previous mortality and the number of trees under attack in a given year, which can vary greatly over space and time. Simulated enhancements peak in 2004 (British Columbia) and 2008 (US). Responses to beetle attack are shown to be substantially larger (up to a 3-fold localized increase in summertime SOA concentrations) in a scenario based on bark-beetle attack in spruce trees. Placed in the context of observations from the IMPROVE network, the changes in SOA concentrations due to beetle attack are in most cases small compared to the large annual and interannual variability in total organic aerosol which is driven by wildfire activity in western North America. This indicates that most beetle-induced SOA changes are not likely detectable in current observation networks; however, these changes may impede efforts to achieve natural visibility conditions in the national parks and wilderness areas of the western United States.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (ATM- 0929282)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (ATM-0939021)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (ATM-0938940)United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Scienc

Technical Note: Ozonesonde climatology between 1995 and 2011: description, evaluation and applications

An ozone climatology based on ozonesonde measurements taken over the last 17 yr has been constructed for model evaluation and comparisons to other observations. Vertical ozone profiles for 42 stations around the globe have been compiled for the period 1995–2011, in pressure and tropopause-referenced altitudes. For each profile, the mean, standard deviation, median, the half-width are provided, as well as information about interannual variability. Regional aggregates are formed in combining stations with similar ozone characteristics. The Hellinger distance is introduced as a new diagnostic to identify stations that describe similar shapes of ozone probability distribution functions (PDFs). In this way, 12 regions were selected covering at least 2 stations and the variability among those stations is discussed. Significant variability with longitude of ozone distributions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere in the northern mid- and high latitudes is found. The representativeness of regional aggregates is discussed for high northern latitudes, Western Europe, Eastern US, and Japan, using independent observations from surface stations and MOZAIC aircraft data. Good agreement exists between ozonesondes and aircraft observations in the mid-troposphere and between ozonesondes and surface observations for Western Europe. For Eastern US and high northern latitudes, surface ozone values from ozonesondes are biased 10 ppb high compared to independent measurements. An application of the climatology is presented using the NCAR CAM-Chem model. The climatology allows evaluation of the model performance regarding ozone averages, seasonality, interannual variability, and the shape of ozone distributions. The new assessment of the key features of ozone distributions gives deeper insights into the performance of models

Modeling organic aerosols during MILAGRO: importance of biogenic secondary organic aerosols

The meso-scale chemistry-transport model CHIMERE is used to assess our understanding of major sources and formation processes leading to a fairly large amount of organic aerosols – OA, including primary OA (POA) and secondary OA (SOA) – observed in Mexico City during the MILAGRO field project (March 2006). Chemical analyses of submicron aerosols from aerosol mass spectrometers (AMS) indicate that organic particles found in the Mexico City basin contain a large fraction of oxygenated organic species (OOA) which have strong correspondence with SOA, and that their production actively continues downwind of the city. The SOA formation is modeled here by the one-step oxidation of anthropogenic (i.e. aromatics, alkanes), biogenic (i.e. monoterpenes and isoprene), and biomass-burning SOA precursors and their partitioning into both organic and aqueous phases. Conservative assumptions are made for uncertain parameters to maximize the amount of SOA produced by the model. The near-surface model evaluation shows that predicted OA correlates reasonably well with measurements during the campaign, however it remains a factor of 2 lower than the measured total OA. Fairly good agreement is found between predicted and observed POA within the city suggesting that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are reasonably captured. Consistent with previous studies in Mexico City, large discrepancies are encountered for SOA, with a factor of 2–10 model underestimate. When only anthropogenic SOA precursors were considered, the model was able to reproduce within a factor of two the sharp increase in OOA concentrations during the late morning at both urban and near-urban locations but the discrepancy increases rapidly later in the day, consistent with previous results, and is especially obvious when the column-integrated SOA mass is considered instead of the surface concentration. The increase in the missing SOA mass in the afternoon coincides with the sharp drop in POA suggesting a tendency of the model to excessively evaporate the freshly formed SOA. Predicted SOA concentrations in our base case were extremely low when photochemistry was not active, especially overnight, as the SOA formed in the previous day was mostly quickly advected away from the basin. These nighttime discrepancies were not significantly reduced when greatly enhanced partitioning to the aerosol phase was assumed. Model sensitivity results suggest that observed nighttime OOA concentrations are strongly influenced by a regional background SOA (~1.5 μg/m<sup>3</sup>) of biogenic origin which is transported from the coastal mountain ranges into the Mexico City basin. The presence of biogenic SOA in Mexico City was confirmed by SOA tracer-derived estimates that have reported 1.14 (±0.22) μg/m<sup>3</sup> of biogenic SOA at T0, and 1.35 (±0.24) μg/m<sup>3</sup> at T1, which are of the same order as the model. Consistent with other recent studies, we find that biogenic SOA does not appear to be underestimated significantly by traditional models, in strong contrast to what is observed for anthropogenic pollution. The relative contribution of biogenic SOA to predicted monthly mean SOA levels (traditional approach) is estimated to be more than 30% within the city and up to 65% at the regional scale which may help explain the significant amount of modern carbon in the aerosols inside the city during low biomass burning periods. The anthropogenic emissions of isoprene and its nighttime oxidation by NO<sub>3</sub> were also found to enhance the SOA mean concentrations within the city by an additional 15%. Our results confirm the large underestimation of the SOA production by traditional models in polluted regions (estimated as 10–20 tons within the Mexico City metropolitan area during the daily peak), and emphasize for the first time the role of biogenic precursors in this region, indicating that they cannot be neglected in urban modeling studies