Luminous and Dark Matter in the Milky Way

(Abridged) Axisymmetric models of the Milky Way exhibit strong interrelations between the Galactic constants (R_0 and T_0), the stellar columndensity (S_*) and the shape of the dark matter (DM) halo. Here we present analytical relations that can be used to investigate the effects of the uncertain gaseous velocity dispersion on the HI flaring constraints. The contribution of cosmic rays and magnetic fields to the pressure gradients is small. A significantly flattened dark matter halo is only possible if R_0 <~ 6.8 kpc. If R_0 is larger than ~7 kpc, or T_0 >~ 170 km/s, we can rule out two DM candidates that require a highly flattened DM halo: 1) decaying massive neutrinos; and 2) a disk of cold molecular hydrogen. It is only possible to construct self-consistent models of the Galaxy based on the IAU-recommended values for the Galactic constants in the unlikely case that the the stellar columndensity is smaller than ~18 M_sun/pc^2. If we assume that the halo is oblate and S_* = 35 +/- 5 M_sun/pc^2, R_0 <~ 8 kpc and T_0 <~ 200 km/s. Combining the best kinematical and star-count estimates of S_*, we conclude that: 25 <~ S_* <~ 45 M_sun/pc^2. Kuijken & Gilmore's (1991) determination of the columndensity of matter with |z|<=1.1 kpc is robust and valid over a wide range of Galactic constants. Our mass models show that the DM density in the Galactic centre is uncertain by a factor 1000. In the Solar neighbourhood we find: rho_DM ~0.42 GeV/c^2/cm^3 or (11 +/- 5) mM_sun/pc^3 -- roughly 15% of rho_tot.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Searching for z~7.7 Lyman Alpha Emitters in the COSMOS Field with NEWFIRM

The study of Ly-alpha emission in the high-redshift universe is a useful probe of the epoch of reionization, as the Ly-alpha line should be attenuated by the intergalactic medium (IGM) at low to moderate neutral hydrogen fractions. Here we present the results of a deep and wide imaging search for Ly-alpha emitters in the COSMOS field. We have used two ultra-narrowband filters (filter width of ~8-9 {\deg}A) on the NEWFIRM camera, installed on the Mayall 4m telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory, in order to isolate Ly-alpha emitters at z = 7.7; such ultra-narrowband imaging searches have proved to be excellent at detecting Ly-alpha emitters. We found 5-sigma detections of four candidate Ly-alpha emitters in a survey volume of 2.8 x 10^4 Mpc^3 (total survey area ~760 arcmin^2). Each candidate has a line flux greater than 8 x 10^-18 erg s^-1 cm^-2. Using these results to construct a luminosity function and comparing to previously established Ly-alpha luminosity functions at z = 5.7 and z = 6.5, we find no conclusive evidence for evolution of the luminosity function between z = 5.7 and z = 7.7. Statistical Monte Carlo simulations suggest that half of these candidates are real z = 7.7 targets, and spectroscopic follow-up will be required to verify the redshift of these candidates. However, our results are consistent with no strong evolution in the neutral hydrogen fraction of the IGM between z = 5.7 and z = 7.7, even if only one or two of the z = 7.7 candidates are spectroscopically confirmed.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, accepted to ApJ (12/11

Multi-omics of the gut microbial ecosystem in inflammatory bowel diseases.

Inflammatory bowel diseases, which include Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, affect several million individuals worldwide. Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis are complex diseases that are heterogeneous at the clinical, immunological, molecular, genetic, and microbial levels. Individual contributing factors have been the focus of extensive research. As part of the Integrative Human Microbiome Project (HMP2 or iHMP), we followed 132 subjects for one year each to generate integrated longitudinal molecular profiles of host and microbial activity during disease (up to 24 time points each; in total 2,965 stool, biopsy, and blood specimens). Here we present the results, which provide a comprehensive view of functional dysbiosis in the gut microbiome during inflammatory bowel disease activity. We demonstrate a characteristic increase in facultative anaerobes at the expense of obligate anaerobes, as well as molecular disruptions in microbial transcription (for example, among clostridia), metabolite pools (acylcarnitines, bile acids, and short-chain fatty acids), and levels of antibodies in host serum. Periods of disease activity were also marked by increases in temporal variability, with characteristic taxonomic, functional, and biochemical shifts. Finally, integrative analysis identified microbial, biochemical, and host factors central to this dysregulation. The study's infrastructure resources, results, and data, which are available through the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Multi'omics Database ( http://ibdmdb.org ), provide the most comprehensive description to date of host and microbial activities in inflammatory bowel diseases

Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation

We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps in data and research using structured, transparent methods. Such gaps are a significant challenge for global risk modeling. Experience with the WHO FERG expert elicitation shows that it is feasible to conduct an expert elicitation at a global scale, but that challenges do arise, including: defining an informative, yet feasible geographical structure for the elicitation; defining what constitutes expertise in a global setting; structuring international, multidisciplinary expert panels; and managing demands on experts' time in the elicitation. This article was written as part of a workshop, Methods for Research Synthesis: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach held at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis on October 13, 2013

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Background: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. Methods: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. Findings: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96–1·28). Interpretation: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme