Going beyond two degrees? The risks and opportunities of alternative options

Since the mid-1990s, the aim of keeping climate change within 2 °C has become firmly entrenched in policy discourses. In the past few years, the likelihood of achieving it has been increasingly called into question. The debate around what to do with a target that seems less and less achievable is, however, only just beginning. As the UN commences a two-year review of the 2 °C target, this article moves beyond the somewhat binary debates about whether or not it should or will be met, in order to analyse more fully some of the alternative options that have been identified but not fully explored in the existing literature. For the first time, uncertainties, risks, and opportunities associated with four such options are identified and synthesized from the literature. The analysis finds that the significant risks and uncertainties associated with some options may encourage decision makers to recommit to the 2 °C target as the least unattractive course of action

Unpacking changes in mangrove social-ecological systems: lessons from Brazil, Zanzibar, and Vietnam

Mangroves provide multiple benefits, from carbon storage and shoreline protection to food and energy for natural resource-dependent coastal communities. However, they are coming under increasing pressure from climate change, coastal development, and aquaculture. There is increasing need to better understand the changes mangroves face and whether these changes differ or are similar in different parts of the world. Using a multiple case study approach, focused on Vietnam, Zanzibar, and Brazil, this research analyzed the drivers, pressures, states, impacts, and responses (DPSIR) of mangrove systems. A qualitative content analysis was used on a purposively sampled document set for each country to identify and collate evidence under each of the DPSIR categories. Population growth and changing political and economic processes were key drivers across the three countries, leading to land use change and declining states of mangroves. This had an impact on the delivery of regulatory and provisioning ecosystem services from mangroves and on the welfare of coastal communities. Responses have been predominantly regulatory and aim to improve mangrove states, but without always considering ecosystem services or the consequences for welfare. The issue of scale emerged as a critical factor with drivers, pressures, impacts, and responses operating at different levels (from international to local), with consequences for response effectiveness

Use of aviation by climate change researchers: Structural influences, personal attitudes, and information provision

Aviation is a fast-growing sector, releasing more carbon dioxide per passenger kilometre than other transport modes. For climate change researchers, work-related travel – including for conferences and fieldwork – is a major carbon-emitting activity. At the same time, many argue that climate scientists have an important role in curbing their own aviation emissions to align their practices with their assertions in relation to emissions reduction. We examine the tensions between competing professional demands in relation to flying; measure levels of flying by climate and non-climate researchers; assess influences on choices and attitudes; and consider how information provision and structural changes might enable changes in practice. Study 1 entails a large, international survey of flying undertaken by climate change (including sustainability and environmental science) researchers and those from other disciplines (N = 1408). Study 2 tests effects of varying information provision on researchers’ behavioural intentions and policy support to reduce flying (N = 362). Unexpectedly, we find climate change researchers – particularly professors – fly more than other researchers, but are also more likely to have taken steps to reduce or offset their flying. Providing information about the impacts of aviation increases behavioural intentions and support for institutional policies to reduce flying, particularly amongst more pro-environmental respondents. However, while attitudinal factors (e.g., personal norm) predict willingness to reduce flying, structural/social factors (e.g., family commitments, location) are more important in predicting actual flying behaviour. Recent initiatives to develop a low-carbon and more inclusive research culture within climate science and the broader research community thus need to be supported by broader policies and technologies to encourage and enable low-carbon and avoided travel

HDAC-mediated control of ERK- and PI3K-dependent TGF-β-induced extracellular matrix-regulating genes

Histone deacetylases (HDACs) regulate the acetylation of histones in the control of gene expression. Many non-histone proteins are also targeted for acetylation, including TGF-ß signalling pathway components such as Smad2, Smad3 and Smad7. Our studies in mouse C3H10T1/2 fibroblasts suggested that a number of TGF-ß-induced genes that regulate matrix turnover are selectively regulated by HDACs. Blockade of HDAC activity with trichostatin A (TSA) abrogated the induction of a disintegrin and metalloproteinase 12 (Adam12) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1 (Timp-1) genes by TGF-ß, whereas plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (Pai-1) expression was unaffected. Analysis of the activation of cell signalling pathways demonstrated that TGF-ß induced robust ERK and PI3K activation with delayed kinetics compared to the phosphorylation of Smads. The TGF-ß induction of Adam12 and Timp-1 was dependent on such non-Smad signalling pathways and, importantly, HDAC inhibitors completely blocked their activation without affecting Smad signalling. Analysis of TGF-ß-induced Adam12 and Timp-1 expression and ERK/PI3K signalling in the presence of semi-selective HDAC inhibitors valproic acid, MS-275 and apicidin implicated a role for class I HDACs. Furthermore, depletion of HDAC3 by RNA interference significantly down-regulated TGF-ß-induced Adam12 and Timp-1 expression without modulating Pai-1 expression. Correlating with the effect of HDAC inhibitors, depletion of HDAC3 also blocked the activation of ERK and PI3K by TGF-ß. Collectively, these data confirm that HDACs, and in particular HDAC3, are required for activation of the ERK and PI3K signalling pathways by TGF-ß and for the subsequent gene induction dependent on these signalling pathways

Public engagement with marine climate change issues: (Re)framings, understandings and responses

Climate change impacts on marine environments have been somewhat neglected in climate change research, particularly with regard to their social dimensions and implications. This paper contributes to addressing this gap through presenting a UK focused mixed-method study of how publics frame, understand and respond to marine climate change-related issues. It draws on data from a large national survey of UK publics (N = 1,001), undertaken in January 2011 as part of a wider European survey, in conjunction with in-depth qualitative insights from a citizens’ panel with participants from the East Anglia region, UK. This reveals that discrete marine climate change impacts, as often framed in technical or institutional terms, were not the most immediate or significant issues for most respondents. Study participants tended to view these climate impacts ‘in context’, in situated ways, and as entangled with other issues relating to marine environments and their everyday lives. Whilst making connections with scientific knowledge on the subject, public understandings of marine climate impacts were mainly shaped by personal experience, the visibility and proximity of impacts, sense of personal risk and moral or equity-based arguments. In terms of responses, study participants prioritised climate change mitigation measures over adaptation, even in high-risk areas. We consider the implications of these insights for research and practices of public engagement on marine climate impacts specifically, and climate change more generally

Building a Social Mandate for Climate Action: Lessons from COVID-19

The COVID-19 imposed lockdown has led to a number of temporary environmental side effects (reduced global emissions, cleaner air, less noise), that the climate community has aspired to achieve over a number of decades. However, these benefits have been achieved at a massive cost to welfare and the economy. This commentary draws lessons from the COVID-19 crisis for climate change. It discusses whether there are more sustainable ways of achieving these benefits, as part of a more desirable, low carbon resilient future, in a more planned, inclusive and less disruptive way. In order to achieve this, we argue for a clearer social contract between citizens and the state. We discuss how COVID-19 has demonstrated that behaviours can change abruptly, that these changes come at a cost, that we need a ‘social mandate’ to ensure these changes remain in the long-term, and that science plays an important role in informing this process. We suggest that deliberative engagement mechanisms, such as citizens’ assemblies and juries, could be a powerful way to build a social mandate for climate action post-COVID-19. This would enable behaviour changes to become more accepted, embedded and bearable in the long-term and provide the basis for future climate action

Citizen social science for more integrative and effective climate action: A science-policy perspective

Governments are struggling to limit global temperatures below the 2°C Paris target with existing climate change policy approaches. This is because conventional climate policies have been predominantly (inter)nationally top-down, which limits citizen agency in driving policy change and influencing citizen behavior. Here we propose elevating Citizen Social Science (CSS) to a new level across governments as an advanced collaborative approach of accelerating climate action and policies that moves beyond conventional citizen science and participatory approaches. Moving beyond the traditional science-policy model of the democratization of science in enabling more inclusive climate policy change, we present examples of how CSS can potentially transform citizen behavior and enable citizens to become key agents in driving climate policy change. We also discuss the barriers that could impede the implementation of CSS and offer solutions to these. In doing this, we articulate the implications of increased citizen action through CSS in moving forward the broader normative and political program of transdisciplinary and co-productive climate change research and policy

Modulation of Interleukin-1 Transcriptional Response by the Interaction between VRK2 and the JIP1 Scaffold Protein

Background. Cellular biological responses to specific stimulation are determined by a balance among signaling pathways. Protein interactions are likely to modulate these pathways. Vaccinia-related kinase-2 (VRK2) is a novel human kinase that can modulate different signaling pathways. Principal findings. We report that in vivo, the activity of JIP1-JNK complexes is downregulated by VRK2 in response to interleukin-1β. Also the reduction of endogenous VRK2 with shRNA increases the transcriptional response to IL-1β. The JIP1 scaffold protein assembles three consecutive members of a given MAPK pathway forming signaling complexes and their signal can be modulated by interactions with regulatory proteins that remain to be identified. Knocking-down JIP1 with siRNA resulted in elimination of the AP1 transcriptional response to IL-1β. VRK2, a member of novel Ser-Thr kinase family, is able to stably interact with JIP1, TAK1 and MKK7, but not JNK, and can be isolated forming oligomeric complexes with different proportions of TAK1, MKK7β1 and JNK. JIP1 assembles all these proteins in an oligomeric signalosome. VRK2 binding to the JIP1 signalosome prevents the association of JNK and results in a reduction in its phosphorylation and downregulation of AP1-dependent transcription. Conclusions/Significance. This work suggests that the intracellular level of VRK2 protein can modulate the flow through a signaling pathway and alter the response from a receptor that can be distributed by more than one pathway, and thus contribute to the cellular specificity of the response by forming alternative signaling complexes. Furthermore, the effect might be more general and affect other signaling routes assembled on the JIP1 scaffold protein for which a model is proposed.S.B., M. S-G, and C.R.S. have predoctoral fellowships from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, CSIC (Spain) and Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal) respectively. This work was funded by grants from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (SAF2004-02900, SAF2007-60242 and Consolider CSD-2007-0017), Fundación de Investigación Médica MM and Federación de Cajas de Ahorro de Castilla y León to P.A.L.Peer reviewe

Public division about climate change rooted in conflicting socio-political identities

Of the climate science papers that take a position on the issue, 97% agree that climate change is caused by humans1, but less than half of the US population shares this belief2. This misalignment between scientific and public views has been attributed to a range of factors, including political attitudes, socio-economic status, moral values, levels of scientific understanding, and failure of scientific communication. The public is divided between climate change 'believers' (whose views align with those of the scientific community) and 'sceptics' (whose views are in disagreement with those of the scientific community). We propose that this division is best explained as a socio-political conflict between these opposing groups. Here we demonstrate that US believers and sceptics have distinct social identities, beliefs and emotional reactions that systematically predict their support for action to advance their respective positions. The key implication is that the divisions between sceptics and believers are unlikely to be overcome solely through communication and education strategies, and that interventions that increase angry opposition to action on climate change are especially problematic. Thus, strategies for building support for mitigation policies should go beyond attempts to improve the public’s understanding of science, to include approaches that transform intergroup relations