Modeling electricity spot prices using mean-reverting multifractal processes

We discuss stochastic modeling of volatility persistence and anti-correlations in electricity spot prices, and for this purpose we present two mean-reverting versions of the multifractal random walk (MRW). In the first model the anti-correlations are modeled in the same way as in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, i.e. via a drift (damping) term, and in the second model the anti-correlations are included by letting the innovations in the MRW model be fractional Gaussian noise with H < 1/2. For both models we present approximate maximum likelihood methods, and we apply these methods to estimate the parameters for the spot prices in the Nordic electricity market. The maximum likelihood estimates show that electricity spot prices are characterized by scaling exponents that are significantly different from the corresponding exponents in stock markets, confirming the exceptional nature of the electricity market. In order to compare the damped MRW model with the fractional MRW model we use ensemble simulations and wavelet-based variograms, and we observe that certain features of the spot prices are better described by the damped MRW model. The characteristic correlation time is estimated to approximately half a year.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

International lease accounting reform and economic consequences: the views of UK users and preparers

In response to perceived difficulties with extant lease-accounting standards in operation worldwide, the G4+1 issued a discussion paper which proposes that all leases should be recognized on the balance sheet [ASB (1999). Leases: Implementation of a new approach, discussion paper. London: Accounting Standards Board]. Leasing is now on the active agenda of the IASB. A major difficulty faced by standard setters lies in overcoming the preparer/user lobbying imbalance and obtaining ex ante evidence on the likely impact of regulatory reform. This paper contributes to the ongoing international debate by conducting a questionnaire survey of U.K. users and preparers to assess their views on proposals for lease-accounting reform and on the potential economic consequences of their adoption. The results, based on 132 responses, indicate that both groups accept that there are deficiencies in the current rules, but they do not agree on the way forward and believe that the proposals would lead to significant economic consequences for key parties. The impact on respondents' views of familiarity with the proposals, level of lease usage, and company size, is also examined

Physical Confirmation and Mapping of Overlapping Rat Mammary Carcinoma Susceptibility QTLs, Mcs2 and Mcs6

Only a portion of the estimated heritability of breast cancer susceptibility has been explained by individual loci. Comparative genetic approaches that first use an experimental organism to map susceptibility QTLs are unbiased methods to identify human orthologs to target in human population-based genetic association studies. Here, overlapping rat mammary carcinoma susceptibility (Mcs) predicted QTLs, Mcs6 and Mcs2, were physically confirmed and mapped to identify the human orthologous region. To physically confirm Mcs6 and Mcs2, congenic lines were established using the Wistar-Furth (WF) rat strain, which is susceptible to developing mammary carcinomas, as the recipient (genetic background) and either Wistar-Kyoto (WKy, Mcs6) or Copenhagen (COP, Mcs2), which are resistant, as donor strains. By comparing Mcs phenotypes of WF.WKy congenic lines with distinct segments of WKy chromosome 7 we physically confirmed and mapped Mcs6 to ∼33 Mb between markers D7Rat171 and gUwm64-3. The predicted Mcs2 QTL was also physically confirmed using segments of COP chromosome 7 introgressed into a susceptible WF background. The Mcs6 and Mcs2 overlapping genomic regions contain multiple annotated genes, but none have a clear or well established link to breast cancer susceptibility. Igf1 and Socs2 are two of multiple potential candidate genes in Mcs6. The human genomic region orthologous to rat Mcs6 is on chromosome 12 from base positions 71,270,266 to 105,502,699. This region has not shown a genome-wide significant association to breast cancer risk in pun studies of breast cancer susceptibility

The Jacob2 Lectin of the Entamoeba histolytica Cyst Wall Binds Chitin and Is Polymorphic

For many years, we and others have used cysts of Entamoeba invadens (Ei), a reptilian parasite, to model the infectious and diagnostic cysts of the human pathogen Entamoeba histolytica (Eh). The Ei cyst wall is composed of chitin fibrils, as well as Jacob and Jessie lectins that have unique chitin-binding domains. Our recent results suggest a “wattle and daub” model of the Ei cyst wall, where the wattle or sticks (chitin fibrils bound by multivalent Jacob lectins) is constructed prior to the addition of the mortar or daub (self-aggregating Jessie3 lectins). Here we “humanize” the Ei model of the cyst wall with four findings. First, a recombinant Eh Jacob2 lectin, which has three predicted chitin-binding domains surrounding a large spacer domain, binds chitin beads. Second, polymorphisms in the spacer domain of EhJacob2 discriminate clinical isolates of Entamoeba. Third, chitinase, Jacob2 lectin, and Jessie3 lectin are present in cyst walls of clinical isolates of Entamoeba. Finally, numerous sera from patients infected with Entamoeba recognize recombinant Eh Jacob1 and Jessie3 lectins

Accrual-based and real earnings management and political connections

This study examines whether the trade-off between real and accrual-based management strategies differs between firms with and without political connections. We argue that politically connected firms are more likely to substitute real earnings management for accrual-based earnings management than non-connected firms. Although real earnings management is more costly, we expect that politically connected firms prefer this strategy because of its higher secrecy and potential to mask political favors. Using a unique panel data set of 5493 publicly traded firms in 30 countries, our results show that politically connected firms are more likely to substitute real earnings management strategies for accrual-based earnings management strategies than non-connected firms. We also find that when public monitoring and, therefore, the risk of detection increases, politically connected firms are more likely to resort to less detectable real earnings management strategies. Our finding that political connections play a significant role in the choice between accrual-based and real earnings management strategies suggests that focusing only on accrual-based measurements underestimates the total earnings management activities of politically connected firms

Sociodemographic correlates of food habits among school adolescents (12–15 year) in north Gaza Strip

Background: There is little information about meal patterns and food consumption of adolescents in Palestine. The objective of this study was to describe the association between sociodemographic factors and food intake, and meal patterns among Palestinian school adolescents (12–15 year) in North Gaza Strip. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2002 comprising 944 subjects in 10 schools in Gaza city, Jabalia village and Jabalia refugee camp. Self-administered questionnaires were filled in by students and parents to obtain data on frequency of meals, food intake and sociodemographic characteristics. Results: High household socioeconomic status (SES) was associated with the increased number of meals and the increased intakes of many nutritious foods such as; animal food items, fruits and vegetables and dairy foods. The percentage of adolescents having breakfast daily of high and low SES was 74.5% vs 55% in boys and 65.6% vs 45% in girls. The percentage of girls with refugee status who had lunch was higher (90.2%) compared to the local citizen girls (83.9%), (p = 0.03). Girls were less likely to skip daily lunch (OR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.36–0.87, p = 0.01) compared to boys. Risk of skipping lunch was three times higher among adolescents living in the village compared to Gaza well-off area (OR = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.72–6.31, p < 0.001). Adolescents who were having lunch daily were less likely to skip breakfast or dinner. Only 11.6% of boys and 16.2% of girls consumed fruits daily. In multivariate analysis, SES was positively associated with food frequency intake scores in both genders. Boys from the refugee camp and the village had a significant higher consumption of fruits and vegetables than boys from high and low income area in Gaza City, while it was the opposite in girls. Conclusion: Meal skipping is common, particularly among those of low SES and the intakes of many nutritious foods such as animal food items, fruits and vegetables and dairy foods seem to be low among adolescents of low SES. The results of this study could be used as an important baseline for future monitoring of the nutritional situation of adolescents.Abdallah H Abudayya, Hein Stigum, Zumin Shi, Yehia Abed and Gerd Holmboe-Ottese

A polymorphic variant of the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) receptor correlates with male longevity in the Italian population: a genetic study and evaluation of circulating IGF-1 from the "Treviso Longeva (TRELONG)" study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An attenuation of the insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) signaling has been associated with elongation of the lifespan in simple metazoan organisms and in rodents. In humans, IGF-1 level has an age-related modulation with a lower concentration in the elderly, depending on hormonal and genetic factors affecting the IGF-1 receptor gene (<it>IGF-1R</it>).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In an elderly population from North-eastern Italy (<it>n </it>= 668 subjects, age range 70–106 years) we investigated the <it>IGF-1R </it>polymorphism G3174A (<it>rs2229765</it>) and the plasma concentration of free IGF-1. Frequency distributions were compared using χ²-test "Goodness of Fit" test, and means were compared by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA); multiple regression analysis was performed using JMP7 for SAS software (SAS Institute, USA). The limit of significance for genetic and biochemical comparison was set at α = 0.05.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Males showed an age-related increase in the A-allele of <it>rs2229765 </it>and a change in the plasma level of IGF-1, which dropped significantly after 85 years of age (85+ group). In the male 85+ group, A/A homozygous subjects had the lowest plasma IGF-1 level. We found no clear correlation between <it>rs2229765 </it>genotype and IGF-1 in the females.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings confirm the importance of the <it>rs2229765 </it>minor allele as a genetic predisposing factor for longevity in Italy where a sex-specific pattern for IGF-1 attenuation with ageing was found.</p