A systematic review to identify areas of enhancements of pandemic simulation models for operational use at provincial and local levels

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, computer simulation models have supported development of pandemic influenza preparedness policies. However, U.S. policymakers have raised several <it>concerns </it>about the practical use of these models. In this review paper, we examine the extent to which the current literature already addresses these <it>concerns </it>and identify means of enhancing the current models for higher operational use.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We surveyed PubMed and other sources for published research literature on simulation models for influenza pandemic preparedness. We identified 23 models published between 1990 and 2010 that consider single-region (e.g., country, province, city) outbreaks and multi-pronged mitigation strategies. We developed a plan for examination of the literature based on the concerns raised by the policymakers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>While examining the concerns about the adequacy and validity of data, we found that though the epidemiological data supporting the models appears to be adequate, it should be validated through as many updates as possible during an outbreak. Demographical data must improve its interfaces for access, retrieval, and translation into model parameters. Regarding the concern about credibility and validity of modeling assumptions, we found that the models often simplify reality to reduce computational burden. Such simplifications may be permissible if they do not interfere with the performance assessment of the mitigation strategies. We also agreed with the concern that social behavior is inadequately represented in pandemic influenza models. Our review showed that the models consider only a few social-behavioral aspects including contact rates, withdrawal from work or school due to symptoms appearance or to care for sick relatives, and compliance to social distancing, vaccination, and antiviral prophylaxis. The concern about the degree of accessibility of the models is palpable, since we found three models that are currently accessible by the public while other models are seeking public accessibility. Policymakers would prefer models scalable to any population size that can be downloadable and operable in personal computers. But scaling models to larger populations would often require computational needs that cannot be handled with personal computers and laptops. As a limitation, we state that some existing models could not be included in our review due to their limited available documentation discussing the choice of relevant parameter values.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To adequately address the concerns of the policymakers, we need continuing model enhancements in critical areas including: updating of epidemiological data during a pandemic, smooth handling of large demographical databases, incorporation of a broader spectrum of social-behavioral aspects, updating information for contact patterns, adaptation of recent methodologies for collecting human mobility data, and improvement of computational efficiency and accessibility.</p

The management of acute venous thromboembolism in clinical practice. Results from the European PREFER in VTE Registry

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Europe. Data from real-world registries are necessary, as clinical trials do not represent the full spectrum of VTE patients seen in clinical practice. We aimed to document the epidemiology, management and outcomes of VTE using data from a large, observational database. PREFER in VTE was an international, non-interventional disease registry conducted between January 2013 and July 2015 in primary and secondary care across seven European countries. Consecutive patients with acute VTE were documented and followed up over 12 months. PREFER in VTE included 3,455 patients with a mean age of 60.8 ± 17.0 years. Overall, 53.0 % were male. The majority of patients were assessed in the hospital setting as inpatients or outpatients (78.5 %). The diagnosis was deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) in 59.5 % and pulmonary embolism (PE) in 40.5 %. The most common comorbidities were the various types of cardiovascular disease (excluding hypertension; 45.5 %), hypertension (42.3 %) and dyslipidaemia (21.1 %). Following the index VTE, a large proportion of patients received initial therapy with heparin (73.2 %), almost half received a vitamin K antagonist (48.7 %) and nearly a quarter received a DOAC (24.5 %). Almost a quarter of all presentations were for recurrent VTE, with &gt;80 % of previous episodes having occurred more than 12 months prior to baseline. In conclusion, PREFER in VTE has provided contemporary insights into VTE patients and their real-world management, including their baseline characteristics, risk factors, disease history, symptoms and signs, initial therapy and outcomes

Massively parallel sequencing techniques for forensics: A review

DNA sequencing, starting with Sanger's chain termination method in 1977 and evolving into the next generation sequencing (NGS) techniques of today that employ massively parallel sequencing (MPS), has become essential in application areas such as biotechnology, virology, and medical diagnostics. Reflected by the growing number of articles published over the last 2–3 years, these techniques have also gained attention in the forensic field. This review contains a brief description of first, second, and third generation sequencing techniques, and focuses on the recent developments in human DNA analysis applicable in the forensic field. Relevance to the forensic analysis is that besides generation of standard STR‐profiles, DNA repeats can also be sequenced to look for polymorphisms. Furthermore, additional SNPs can be sequenced to acquire information on ancestry, paternity or phenotype. The current MPS systems are also very helpful in cases where only a limited amount of DNA or highly degraded DNA has been secured from a crime scene. If enough autosomal DNA is not present, mitochondrial DNA can be sequenced for maternal lineage analysis. These developments clearly demonstrate that the use of NGS will grow into an indispensable tool for forensic science

The management of patients with venous thromboembolism in Italy: insights from the PREFER in VTE registry

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the third most common cardiovascular disease. Real-life data on the clinical presentation, risk factors, diagnosis, and treatment of VTE in Italy and Europe are required to optimize the management of this disease. The PREFER in VTE registry, a prospective non-interventional real-life study, was designed to assess clinical characteristics and management of patients with VTE, use of health care resources, and on-treatment patient quality of life. Eligible consecutive patients with objectively diagnosed VTE were enrolled in the registry and followed up for 12 months. Between January and December 2013, 816 Italian and 1027 patients from 6 European countries other than Italy (European patients) were enrolled in the registry, and followed up until December 2014. Italian patients were the oldest (mean age 65.7 years) among the European patients. The Italian patients with a history of cancer were 24.6 % of whom 63.2 % had an active cancer (18.2 and 57.0 %, respectively, in Europe). Parenteral heparin was given, as initial treatment, in 73.8 % of Italian patients (66.4 % in Europe); VKA in combination with other treatments in 45.8 % (34.7 % in Europe); and VKA as the only anticoagulant treatment in 24.4 % (17.2 % in Europe). Of the Italian patients, 43.2 and 90.6 % of patients were hospitalized for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, respectively; 65.4 % were admitted to the hospital through the emergency department. Following a real world approach, PREFER in VTE shows that the Italian patients, among and compared to the European patients, are the oldest, have a history of cancer more commonly, receive an initial treatment with heparin more commonly, and are more commonly hospitalized, particularly if affected by PE

The management of acute venous thromboembolism in clinical practice - study rationale and protocol of the European PREFER in VTE Registry

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major health problem, with over one million events every year in Europe. However, there is a paucity of data on the current management in real life, including factors influencing treatment pathways, patient satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and utilization of health care resources and the corresponding costs. The PREFER in VTE registry has been designed to address this and to understand medical care and needs as well as potential gaps for improvement. Methods/design: The PREFER in VTE registry was a prospective, observational, multicenter study conducted in seven European countries including Austria, France Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK to assess the characteristics and the management of patients with VTE, the use of health care resources, and to provide data to estimate the costs for 12 months treatment following a first-time and/or recurrent VTE diagnosed in hospitals or specialized or primary care centers. In addition, existing anticoagulant treatment patterns, patient pathways, clinical outcomes, treatment satisfaction, and health related QoL were documented. The centers were chosen to reflect the care environment in which patients with VTE are managed in each of the participating countries. Patients were eligible to be enrolled into the registry if they were at least 18 years old, had a symptomatic, objectively confirmed first time or recurrent acute VTE defined as either distal or proximal deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism or both. After the baseline visit at the time of the acute VTE event, further follow-up documentations occurred at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Follow-up data was collected by either routinely scheduled visits or by telephone calls. Results: Overall, 381 centers participated, which enrolled 3,545 patients during an observational period of 1 year. Conclusion: The PREFER in VTE registry will provide valuable insights into the characteristics of patients with VTE and their acute and mid-term management, as well as into drug utilization and the use of health care resources in acute first-time and/or recurrent VTE across Europe in clinical practice. Trial registration: Registered in DRKS register, ID number: DRKS0000479