40 research outputs found

    Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO₂

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    Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand

    Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one.

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    Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models

    NEWS AND VIEWS: Breakfast clubs: availability for British schoolchildren and the nutritional, social and academic benefits

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    Breakfast clubs are not a new resource for parents and children, but interest in them has heightened, because of both the need for improvement in school food and political interest in their availability across the devolved countries. It has been suggested that concrete scientific evidence as to their benefits to academic performance be required before a breakfast club should be available for children across the UK. It is inappropriate to correlate crude measures such as Standard Assessment Test (SAT) scores and exam results with breakfast club provision, and the focus of analysis should be individual pupil benefit (both scholastically and socially), nutrient intake, meal provision and even assisting working parents with child care. There is limited data available to investigate the adequacy of food provision in school breakfast clubs, but there is now sufficient information available for breakfast club organisers to provide a nutritionally balanced breakfast. A body of evidence is emerging that demonstrates the benefits of breakfast club attendance to mental performance and social development. However, it is unclear whether such benefits are derived from the consumption of breakfast per se, the environment or a combination of the two. It is reasonably safe to conclude that the benefits of breakfast clubs are more pronounced in deprived areas, and efforts of charities to support breakfast clubs should focus in these areas. Given the role and importance of school breakfast clubs, ContinYou, a leading national charity, pledged support in establishing 200 more school breakfast clubs over 2009 and 2010
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