Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model

The effect of South American biomass burning aerosol emissions on the regional climate

The impact of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) on the regional climate in South America is assessed using 30-year simulations with a global atmosphere-only configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. We compare two simulations of high and low emissions of biomass burning aerosol based on realistic interannual variability. The aerosol scheme in the model has hygroscopic growth and optical properties for BBA informed by recent observations, including those from the recent South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) intensive aircraft observations made during September 2012. We find that the difference in the September (peak biomass emissions month) BBA optical depth between a simulation with high emissions and a simulation with low emissions corresponds well to the difference in the BBA emissions between the two simulations, with a 71.6 % reduction from high to low emissions for both the BBA emissions and the BB AOD in the region with maximum emissions (defined by a box of extent 5–25° S, 40–70° W, used for calculating mean values given below). The cloud cover at all altitudes in the region of greatest BBA difference is reduced as a result of the semi-direct effect, by heating of the atmosphere by the BBA and changes in the atmospheric stability and surface fluxes. Within the BBA layer the cloud is reduced by burn-off, while the higher cloud changes appear to be responding to stability changes. The boundary layer is reduced in height and stabilized by increased BBA, resulting in reduced deep convection and reduced cloud cover at heights of 9–14 km, above the layer of BBA. Despite the decrease in cloud fraction, September downwelling clear-sky and all-sky shortwave radiation at the surface is reduced for higher emissions by 13.77 ± 0.39 W m−2 (clear-sky) and 7.37 ± 2.29 W m−2 (all-sky), whilst the upwelling shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere is increased in clear sky by 3.32 ± 0.09 W m−2, but decreased by −1.36±1.67 W m−2 when cloud changes are included. Shortwave heating rates increase in the aerosol layer by 18 % in the high emissions case. The mean surface temperature is reduced by 0.14 ± 0.24 °C and mean precipitation is reduced by 14.5 % in the peak biomass region due to both changes in cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties. If the increase in BBA occurs in a particularly dry year, the resulting reduction in precipitation may exacerbate the drought. The position of the South Atlantic high pressure is slightly altered by the presence of increased BBA, and the strength of the southward low-level jet to the east of the Andes is increased. There is some evidence that some impacts of increased BBA persist through the transition into the monsoon, particularly in precipitation, but the differences are only statistically significant in some small regions in November. This study therefore provides an insight into how variability in deforestation, realized through variability in biomass burning emissions, may contribute to the South American climate, and consequently on the possible impacts of future changes in BBA emissions

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference

A critical assessment of the long term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis

This study investigates the robustness of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the ERA20C reanalysis. A statistically significant trend in the AO is found in ERA20C over the period 1900-2010. These long-term changes in the AO are not found in two other observational datasets. The long term change in the AO in ERA20C is associated with statistically significant negative trend (approximately -6hPa per century) in mean-sea level pressure (MSLP) over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar regions. This is not seen in the HADSLP2 observational dataset, suggesting that the trends in the ERA20C AO index may be spurious. The spurious long term changes in MSLP and the AO index in ERA20C result in a strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient in ERA20C. The strengthening of the meridional MSLP gradient is consistent with increases in wintertime storminess in Northern Europe and the NH high latitudes

Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?

Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model

The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA): collaboration from bottom-up

The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA) is an association of leading European research institutions in the field of climate research (http://www.ecra-climate.eu/, last access: 6 December 2018). ECRA is a bottom-up initiative and helps to facilitate the development of climate change research, combining the capacities of national research institutions, and inducing closer ties between existing national research initiatives, projects and infrastructures. ECRA works as an open platform to bring together climate researchers, providing excellent scientific expertise for policy makers and of societal relevance. The ECRA Board consists of representatives of ECRA partners and decides on governance, scientific priorities, and organisational matters. Currently organized into four Collaborative Programmes, climate scientists share their knowledge, experience and expertise to identify the most important research requirements for the future, thus developing a foresight approach. The CPs cover the topics: (1) Arctic variability and change, (2) Sea level changes and coastal impacts, (3) Changes in the hydrological cycle and (4) High impact events. The CP activities are planned in workshops and participation is open to all interested scientists from the relevant research fields. In particular, young researchers are actively encouraged to join the network. Each CP develops its joint research priorities for shaping European research into the future. Because scientific themes are interconnected, the four Collaborative Programmes interact with each other, e.g. through the organization of common workshops or joint applications. In addition, the Collaborative Programme leads attend the Board meetings. The different formats of ECRA meetings range from scientific workshops to briefing events and side events at conferences to involve different groups of interests. This facilitates the interaction of scientists, various stakeholder groups and politicians. A biennial open ECRA General Assembly that is organised in Brussels represents an umbrella event and acts as a platform for discussion and contact with stakeholders. This event is an excellent opportunity to jointly discuss research priorities of high societal relevance

Presentation and Outcomes After Medical and Surgical Treatment Versus Medical Treatment Alone of Spontaneous Infectious Spondylodiscitis: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis.

Study Design: Systematic literature review. Objectives: The aims of this study were to (1) describe the clinical features, disabilities, and incidence of neurologic deficits of pyogenic spondylodiscitis prior to treatment and (2) compare the functional outcomes between patients who underwent medical treatment alone or in combination with surgery for pyogenic spondylodiscitis. Methods: A systematic literature review was performed using PubMed according to PRISMA guidelines. No year restriction was put in place. Statistical analysis of pooled data, when documented in the original report (ie, number of patients with desired variable and number of patients evaluated), was conducted to determine the most common presenting symptoms, incidence of pre- and postoperative neurologic deficits, associated comorbidities, infectious pathogens, approach for surgery when performed, and duration of hospitalization. Outcomes data, including return to work status, resolution of back pain, and functional recovery were also pooled among all studies and surgery-specific studies alone. Meta-analysis of studies with subgroup analysis of pain-free outcome in surgical and medical patients was performed. Results: Fifty of 1286 studies were included, comprising 4173 patients undergoing either medical treatment alone or in combination with surgery. Back pain was the most common presenting symptom, reported in 91% of patients. Neurologic deficit was noted in 31% of patients. Conclusion: Medical management remains first-line treatment of infectious pyogenic spondylodiscitis. Surgery may be indicated for progressive pain, persistent infection on imaging, deformity or neurologic deficits. If surgery is required, reported literature shows potential for significant pain reduction, improved neurologic function and a high number of patients returning to a normal functional/work status

The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high resolution global climate model data

Extratropical cyclones are the most damaging natural hazard to affect western Europe. Serial clustering occurs when many intense cyclones affect one specific geographic region in a short period of time which can potentially lead to very large seasonal losses. Previous studies have shown that intense cyclones may be more likely to cluster than less intense cyclones. We revisit this topic using a high resolution climate model with the aim to determine how important clustering is for windstorm related losses. The role of windstorm clustering is investigated using a quantifiable metric (storm severity index, SSI) that is based on near surface meteorological variables (10-metre wind speed) and is a good proxy for losses. The SSI is used to convert a wind footprint into losses for individual windstorms or seasons. 918 years of a present-day ensemble of coupled climate model simulations from the High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) are compared to ERA-Interim re-analysis. HiGEM is able to successfully reproduce the wintertime North Atlantic/European circulation, and represent the large-scale circulation associated with the serial clustering of European windstorms. We use two measures to identify any changes in the contribution of clustering to the seasonal windstorm loss as a function of return period. Above a return period of 3 years, the accumulated seasonal loss from HiGEM is up to 20% larger than the accumulated seasonal loss from a set of random resamples of the HiGEM data. Seasonal losses are increased by 10-20% relative to randomised seasonal losses at a return period of 200 years. The contribution of the single largest event in a season to the accumulated seasonal loss does not change with return period, generally ranging between 25-50%. Given the realistic dynamical representation of cyclone clustering in HiGEM, and comparable statistics to ERA-Interim, we conclude that our estimation of clustering and its dependence on the return period will be useful for informing the development of risk models for European windstorms, particularly for longer return periods

Upper ocean manifestations of a reducing meridional overturning circulation

Most climate models predict a slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the 21st century. Using a 100year climate change integration of a high resolution coupled climate model, we show that a 5.3Sv reduction in the deep southward transport in the subtropical North Atlantic is balanced solely by a weakening of the northward surface western boundary current, and not by an increase in the southward transport integrated across the interior ocean away from the western boundary. This is consistent with Sverdrup balance holding to a good approximation outside of the western boundary region on decadal time scales, and may help to spatially constrain past and future change in the overturning circulation. The subtropical gyre weakens by 3.4Sv over the same period due to a weakened wind stress curl. These changes combine to give a net 8.7Sv reduction in upper western boundary transport. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations

This study has investigated serial (temporal) clustering of extra-tropical cyclones simulated by 17 climate models that participated in CMIP5. Clustering was estimated by calculating the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of 30 December-February counts of Atlantic storm tracks passing nearby each grid point. Results from single historical simulations of 1975-2005 were compared to those from historical ERA40 reanalyses from 1958-2001 ERA40 and single future model projections of 2069-2099 under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. Models were generally able to capture the broad features in reanalyses reported previously: underdispersion/regularity (i.e. variance less than mean) in the western core of the Atlantic storm track surrounded by overdispersion/clustering (i.e. variance greater than mean) to the north and south and over western Europe. Regression of counts onto North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices revealed that much of the overdispersion in the historical reanalyses and model simulations can be accounted for by NAO variability. Future changes in dispersion were generally found to be small and not consistent across models. The overdispersion statistic, for any 30 year sample, is prone to large amounts of sampling uncertainty that obscures the climate change signal. For example, the projected increase in dispersion for storm counts near London in the CNRMCM5 model is 0.1 compared to a standard deviation of 0.25. Projected changes in the mean and variance of NAO are insufficient to create changes in overdispersion that are discernible above natural sampling variations